基于气象旱涝指数的旱涝急转事件识别方法

基于长江流域212个气象站点1961-2017年的日降水资料,借助标准化加权平均降水指数（SWAP）,结合多门槛游程理论,提出一种识别旱涝急转事件的新方法。方法应用于旱涝急转事件高发的长江流域,分别从典型站点旱涝事件分析、区域典型旱涝急转事件分析、旱涝急转事件时空分布规律分析等角度,探讨了长江流域1961-2017年旱涝急转事件规律。结论显示：①SWAP指数对于旱涝事件具有良好的识别能力。②聚类方法可聚合相似旱涝急转事件,2011年长江中下游旱涝急转事件中干旱事件占主导地位,持续时间远长于洪涝事件。③ 长江流域旱涝急转事件呈现明显的区域规律：上游发生频率较低,中下游偏高;此外,长江流域多数分区近期旱涝急转事件发生频率呈现上升趋势。研究结果表明,基于SWAP指数并结合多门槛游程理论的方法能够比较准确地识别旱涝急转事件,可进一步应用于旱涝急转事件的预测及评估中。     

COVID-19疫情时空聚集性特征及影响因素分析——以重庆市为例

新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)在城市内部的病例时空聚集性特征及影响因素对于疫情防控具有重要参考价值。论文以重庆市为例,收集2020年1月21日—2月24日的458例COVID-19确诊病例数据,结合手机信令数据与空间环境数据,采用空间聚集性分析、因子分析与回归分析等方法,探究重庆市新冠疫情在街道尺度上的时空聚集性特征,并分析其影响因素。结果表明：① 时间上,确诊病例前期增长较快,以外地输入为主,后期逐渐趋缓,以本地传播(包括街道间传播、街道内传播、家庭内传播)为主,其中家庭内传播占比最大(23%);② 空间上,病例呈现显著的聚集特征,且聚集性逐渐增强,热点街道分布于重庆市西部、东北部;分类型来看,本地病例热点街道集中于人口密度较大、经济发展更好的西北部、西南部,外地输入病例热点街道集中于地理邻近湖北省的中部、东北部;③ 所有病例密度、本地病例密度、外地输入病例密度与因子分析所得4个因子(即城市交通因子、街道间活动因子、生活服务因子、居民分布因子)的回归结果显示,交通设施水平与病例密度存在密切关联,商店超市餐饮等生活服务地点与病毒传播显著相关,街道间活动是发生聚集性疫情的重要因素,而外地输入型病例多出现于人口密集区域。疫情防控中应根据不同区域疫情传播模式差异实施针对性措施,例如在重庆市中部、东北部关注外地输入防控,西北部、西南部以本地传播防控为重点;同时,应加强城市内部交通与街道居民接触密集区域的防控措施,有效防止疫情反弹。     

基于云模型和FCM聚类的遥感图像分割方法

模糊C均值算法由于具有良好的聚类性能而被广泛应用于图像分割领域,但聚类中心的初始化问题一直影响着该算法的运行效率。好的初始聚类中心,可以使算法很快收敛于最优解,而不合适的初始聚类中心,不仅需要更多的迭代次数,而且还可能使算法最终收敛于局部最优解。文章结合云模型和FCM(模糊C均值)聚类算法,提出了一种遥感图像分割的新方法。利用云变换解决模糊C均值聚类算法的初始化中心选择问题,可以根据样本特性自动确定聚类中心值及个数,并以较少的迭代次数收敛到全局最优解,提高了模糊C均值遥感图像分割方法的效率,具有较好的稳定性和鲁棒性。文章选取三幅TM遥感图像作为样本,分别利用云模型的FCM方法和传统的FCM方法对样本进行分割实验,实验表明采用云模型的FCM方法不仅能够取得较好的分割效果,而且大大减少了使算法收敛的迭代次数,提高了分割的效率。     

圈闭含油气性信息灰色聚集ART网络聚类评价法

对托库测区 10种物探综合信息进行油气圈闭性评价,采用信息灰色聚集法压缩信息形成灰色聚集样本属性,采用ART网络聚类法自动对聚集信息进行聚类分析,达到圈闭含油气性评价的目的。该方法具有智能化程度和可信度较高的特点。     

地震属性分析在彩16井区储层预测中的应用

介绍了地震属性分类及地质含义,并以彩16井区为例优选出对储层含油气性敏感的地震属性参数,建立它们与含油气性的关系,利用单属性及多属性聚类分析评价了目的层的储层质量,并进行了有利储层预测,并指出下一步的有利勘探目标.     

Research on the Application of Time Structure Variation Analysis to the Jiashi-Bachu Earthquake Swarm Sequence

In 1997 - 2003, 27 earthquakes with M≥ 5.0 occurred in the Jiashi-Bachu area of Xinjiang. It was a rare strong earthquake swarm activity. The earthquake swarm has three time segments of activity with different magnitudes in the years 1997, 1998 and 2003. In different time segments, the seismic activity showed strengthenin-qguiet changes in various degrees before earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0. In order to delimitate effectively the precursory meaning of the clustering （strengthening） quiet change in sequence and to seek the time criterion for impending prediction, the nonlinear characteristics of seismic activity have been used to analyze the time structure characteristics of the earthquake swarm sequence, and further to forecast the development tendency of earthquake sequences in the future. Using the sequence catalogue recorded by the Kashi Station, and taking the earthquakes with Ms≥ 5.0 in the sequence as the starting point and the next earthquake with Ms = 5.0 as the end, statistical analysis has been performed on the time structure relations of the earthquake sequence in different stages. The main results are as follows： （1） Before the major earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0 in the swarm sequence, the time variation coefficient （δ-value） has abnormal demonstrations to different degrees. （2） Within 10 days after δ= 1, occurrence of earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0 in the swarm is very possible. （3） The time variation coefficient has three types of change. （4） The change process before earthquakes with M5.0 is similar to that before earthquakes with M6.0, with little difference in the threshold value. In the earthquake swarm sequence, it is difficult to delimitate accurately the attribute of the current sequences （foreshock or aftershock sequence） and to judge the magnitude of the follow-up earthquake by δ-value. We can only make the judgment that earthquakes with M5.0 are likely to occur in the sequence. （5） The critical clustering characteristics of the sequence are hierarchical. Onl     

地震时空丛集的多重分形研究

为探索大地震发生的可预测性,应用分形理论并根据标准数盒子的数值计算方法,研究了华北地区历史地震和唐山地区地震活动的空间分布特征,估算了地震活动能量的分维值并研究了其多重分形谱的几何结构．初步结果显示出大地震发生前,广义维值有明显的下降过程,分形谱ｆ（α）结构有右偏现象．在低于上述时空层次的唐山地区,孕震系统也有类似特征出现．这些异常现象揭示出孕震动力系统的物理机理和激变前的某些不稳定性．     

Earthquake recurrence on whole active fault zones and its relation to that on individual fault-segments

IntroductionEarthquake recurrence models established on activity behaviors of strong earthquakes are the bases of long-term earthquake prediction, seismic risk zonation, and seismic hazard assessment. A lot of studies have been carried out on earthquake recurrence behaviors for specific seismogenic sources or fault-segments, and a series of empirical recurrence models have been proposed, such as the time-predictable model and the slip-predictable model for earthquakes repeated at the previous …     

Clustering properties of Etna seismicity during 1981–1991

Space and time clustering properties ofseismic activity, affecting Etna Volcano (Italy)during 1981–1991, are investigated by fractaldimension analysis. Very interesting volcanic andseismic activity occurred within this time interval.Temporal evolution of the time fractal dimension D _t calculated on a moving window, revealscorrelation with the eruptive processes at differenttime scales confirming results obtained for a differenttime span (De Rubeis et al., 1997). Spatial fractaldimension D _s shows to be negativelycorrelated with the time fractal dimension D _t, suggesting a peculiar dynamic patternassociated with volcanic processes.     

水系划分的剖面相似系数聚类法

提出一种基于温度剖面相似系数的水系划分方法。基本思想是:将各温度剖面视为独立样本,各深度数据为样本变量,先基于划分区域水文特征选取合理数量的水系中心剖面,再利用各样本与各中心剖面相似系数大小进行聚类,得到各水系划分数据集合;利用几何平均求得各水系集合新的中心剖面,重复剖面相似系数聚类过程,直至中心剖面不再变化为止。最后利用国家海洋信息中心发布的中国近海CTD温、盐产品对该方法进行试验,并对聚类得到的各类温度剖面展开讨论。结果较好的反应出各区域温度剖面特征,综合体现出东海各区域温度大小、海流、水团和水深特性。