旋转触探数学模型及其试验分析

通过对旋转触探用双螺旋探头的受力分析,建立了螺旋探头的贯入阻力和扭矩与贯入速度和转速,以及岩土的力学性能参数间的数学模型。结合数学模型和试验数据对旋转触探技术的影响因素进行了分析,为设计探头结构和进一步理解该技术的力学机理提供了理论依据。     

基于AHP–物元可拓模型的顶板水疏放程度评价

为了科学合理地评价工作面顶板水疏放程度,分析了工作面涌水量预测值和疏放水观测值等要素,构建了顶板水疏放程度评价指标体系,划分了相应的评价等级标准,并利用AHP法确定了各评价指标的权重,建立了顶板水疏放程度的物元可拓模型。利用AHP-物元可拓模型对宁东煤田水文地质条件较为复杂的5个工作面顶板水疏放程度进行了评价,评价结果均为顶板水疏放程度好,并且各工作面已经实现了安全回采,实际情况与评价结果一致。AHP-物元可拓模型可以用于评价顶板水疏放程度,并且可以作为工作面采前水文地质条件评价的参考依据。     

冀西北水晶屯金矿F8断裂带深部定位预测

摘要：以冀西北水晶屯金矿为例,通过对该矿床Ｆ８断裂带成矿地质条件和找矿标志的分析研究,建立起了Ｆ８断裂带的地球化学原生晕模型和灰色系统ＧＭ（１．１）模型,并利用这些模型对其深部合矿性进行了预测．经工程验证,该预测效果是可信的．     

豫南火山岩型银多金属矿地质特征及成矿规律

从区域地质背景、矿带地质特征、典型矿床研究及稳定同位素等方面,论述豫南地区与中生代陆相火山岩有关的银多金属矿床地质特征,以及成矿与火山活动在时间、空间和成矿物质来源等方面的联系,总结了矿带成矿规律。研究认为,该成矿带属与燕山期陆相火山、次火山岩有关的银、铅、锌、金、钼成矿系列,并建立了成矿模式。在此基础上,提出了石山口破火山口南缘及沿龟梅断裂带两个金、银多金属矿的找矿方向。     

Possible Sources of Forecast Errors Generated by the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System for Landfalling Tropical Cyclones. Part Ⅱ: Model Uncertainty

This paper investigates the possible sources of errors associated with tropical cyclone (TC) tracks forecasted using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES). In Part I, it is shown that the model error of GRAPES may be the main cause of poor forecasts of landfalling TCs. Thus, a further examination of the model error is the focus of Part II. Considering model error as a type of forcing, the model error can be represented by the combination of good forecasts and bad forecasts. Results show that there are systematic model errors. The model error of the geopotential height component has periodic features, with a period of 24 h and a global pattern of wavenumber 2 from west to east located between 60°S and 60°N. This periodic model error presents similar features as the atmospheric semidiurnal tide, which reflect signals from tropical diabatic heating, indicating that the parameter errors related to the tropical diabatic heating may be the source of the periodic model error. The above model errors are subtracted from the forecast equation and a series of new forecasts are made. The average forecasting capability using the rectified model is improved compared to simply improving the initial conditions of the original GRAPES model. This confirms the strong impact of the periodic model error on landfalling TC track forecasts. Besides, if the model error used to rectify the model is obtained from an examination of additional TCs, the forecasting capabilities of the corresponding rectified model will be improved.     

不同对流层天顶延迟模型在中国西北地区适应性研究

基于Fortran语言对GAMIT10.7软件进行二次开发,实现了Hopfield模型、Saastamoinen模型、Black模型、UNB3模型、EGNOS模型、GPT2w_1+ Saastamoinen模型和GPT2w_5+ Saastamoinen模型在中国西北地区的对流层延迟解算服务,并分析不同对流层延迟模型在...     

文蛤早期发育阶段生长性状遗传参数的估计

采用部分因子设计构建了23个全同胞家系,应用单性状及两性状动物模型对文蛤(Meretrix meretrix)早期不同生长发育时期的生长性状进行遗传力和相关性估计。结果表明,文蛤附着变态期以及稚贝期生长性状的遗传力并无显著差别,在0.11~0.41范围内变化,属于中等遗传力。非遗传的共同环境效应随着年龄的增长而呈现上升趋势,由附着变态期的0.02逐渐增加到稚贝期的0.38,且稚贝期的共同环境效应显著大于其附着变态期(P0.01)。壳长与壳高表型相关和遗传相关的分析结果显示,从附着变态期到稚贝期,壳长与壳高之间的表型相关及遗传相关都存在极显著的正相关性,相关系数的范围分别为0.84~0.95、0.93~0.99。早期发育连续时间段生长性状之间的遗传相关均为正相关,但并不显著,且不同时期的遗传相关也不尽相同(0.34~0.71)。     

A simplified hindcast method for the estimation of extreme storm surge events in semi-enclosed basins

Human presence, coastal erosion, and tourism activities are increasing the attention to coastal flooding risk. To perform risk assessments, long time series of observed or hindcast wave parameters and tide levels are then necessary. In some cases, only a few years of observation are available, so that observed extreme data are not always representative and reliable. A hindcast system aimed to reconstruct long time series of total tide levels may be of great help to perform robust extreme events analysis and then to protect human life, activities as well as to counteract coastal erosion by means of risk assessments. This work aims to propose a simplified method to hindcast storm surge levels time series in semi-enclosed basins with low computational costs. The method is an extension of a previous work of some of the authors and consists of a mixed approach in which the estimation of storm surge obtained by using the theory of linear dynamic system is corrected by using a statistical method. Both steps are characterized by low computational costs. Nevertheless, the results may be considered reliable enough also in view of the simplicity of the approach. The proposed method has been applied to the Manfredonia case study, a small village located in the Southern Adriatic Italian coast and often prone to coastal flooding events. The comparison of extreme events estimated on the basis of hindcast levels time series is satisfactorily similar to those estimated on the basis of observed tide series.     

�����Ƚ��ֻ�������Bayes���Ʒ��ڵؿ��α�����е�Ӧ��

??????????????????α?????GPS???ι???????????α?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????в??????????????????????????????????????????α???????????????????ι????????????α???????????????????Ч?????????????????????????????????Bayes?????????????????α?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????Щ???????????????????????????????????????????????????GPS????????м??????????????????????????Ч???????????????????????????????????????     

青海东昆仑哈陇休玛钼多金属矿床成矿流体特征及成矿模式

哈陇休玛钼多金属矿床是东昆仑成矿带东段目前仅有的中型斑岩型矿床。为了查明其成矿流体性质及成矿物质来源,构建矿床成矿模式,本文进行了详细的流体包裹体和H-O-S同位素研究。流体包裹体显微测温显示,哈陇休玛矿床发育气液两相和含CO₂三相两种类型包裹体,成矿流体呈现中高温(集中于280～340℃)、高盐度(w(NaCl),集中于6.00%～18.00%)和中等密度(集中于0.64～0.92 g/cm³)特点,成矿深度为2.4～4.1 km,形成于中浅成环境。H-O同位素显示,成矿流体具有岩浆水和大气降水混合的特征,但主体以岩浆水为主;S同位素显示,成矿物质主要来自于深部岩浆。结合区域构造演化认为,哈陇休玛矿床成矿模式为印支晚期东昆仑地区发生强烈壳幔混合作用,形成富含成矿元素的混合岩浆,含矿流体在随混合岩浆上升的过程中发生流体沸腾,并与大气降水混合冷却,导致成矿物理化学条件发生变化,促使成矿物质沉淀成矿。