Fast and slow responses of the North Pacific mode water and Subtropical Countercurrent to global warming

Six coupled general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are employed for examining the full evolution of the North Pacific mode water and Subtropical Countercurrent (STCC) under global warming over 400 years following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5. The mode water and STCC first show a sharp weakening trend when the radiative forcing increases, but then reverse to a slow strengthening trend of smaller magnitude after the radiative forcing is stablized. As the radiative forcing increases during the 21st century, the ocean warming is surface-intensified and decreases with depth, strengthening the upper ocean’s stratification and becoming unfavorable for the mode water formation. Moving southward in the subtropical gyre, the shrinking mode water decelerates the STCC to the south. After the radiative forcing is stabilized in the 2070s, the subsequent warming is greater at the subsurface than at the sea surface, destabilizing the upper ocean and becoming favorable for the mode water formation. As a result, the mode water and STCC recover gradually after the radiative forcing is stabilized.     

一株H_5N_1亚型禽流感病毒株NA基因的克隆与序列分析

用RT-PCR方法从1个H5N1亚型禽流感病毒分离株A/Chicken/Guangdong/DH/1997扩增NA基因cDNA片段,将其克隆至pMD18-T载体,获得重组质粒pMD-NA,并对其核苷酸序列进行测定和分析。结果表明,该毒株的NA基因长度为1350bp,编码449个氨基酸,与其它H5N1亚型AIV分离株的核苷酸序列同源性为97.0%～99.4%,氨基酸序列同源性为97.7%～99.1%,提示禽流感病毒NA基因保守性较高。NA基因氨基酸序列的聚类分析表明该毒株与来自香港的A/Pheasant/HK/FY155/01和A/Ch/HK/FY150/01两个分离株处于同一进化枝,亲缘关系较近。     

Prediction of Seaward Slope Recession in Berm Breakwaters Using M5' Machine Learning Approach

In the design process of berm breakwaters, their front slope recession has an inevitable rule in large number of model tests, and this parameter being studied. This research draws its data from Moghim’s and Shekari’s experiment results. These experiments consist of two different 2D model tests in two wave flumes, in which the berm recession to different sea state and structural parameters have been studied. Irregular waves with a JONSWAP spectrum were used in both test series. A total of 412 test results were used to cover the impact of sea state conditions such as wave height, wave period, storm duration and water depth at the toe of the structure, and structural parameters such as berm elevation from still water level, berm width and stone diameter on berm recession parameters. In this paper, a new set of equations for berm recession is derived using the M5'' model tree as a machine learning approach. A comparison is made between the estimations by the new formula and the formulae recently given by other researchers to show the preference of new M5'' approach.     

“96·8”特大暴雨和中尺度系统发展结构的非静力数值模拟

1996年8月3～5日(“96     

Estimating Sea-Level Allowances for Atlantic Canada using the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC

Abstract

Sea-level allowances at 22 tide-gauge sites along the east coast of Canada are determined based on projections of regional sea-level rise for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) and on the statistics of historical tides and storm surges (storm tides). The allowances, which may be used for coastal infrastructure planning, increase with time during the twenty-first century through a combination of mean sea-level rise and the increased uncertainty of future projections with time. The allowances show significant spatial variation, mainly a consequence of strong regionally varying relative sea-level change as a result of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). A methodology is described for replacement of the GIA component of the AR5 projection with global positioning system (GPS) measurements of vertical crustal motion; this significantly decreases allowances in regions where the uncertainty of the GIA models is large. For RCP8.5 with GPS data incorporated and for the 1995–2100 period, the sea-level allowances range from about 0.5?m along the north shore of the Gulf of St. Lawrence to more than 1?m along the coast of Nova Scotia and southern Newfoundland.     

一个陆面过程参数化模式与 MM5的耦合

在法国陆面过程模式的基础上,为了表示冠层叶片遮挡对水分蒸发阻抗的影响,在植被覆盖部分引入了遮盖因子,然后将这个修正的陆面过程参数化模式耦合到MM5模式中。耦合后的模式模拟出了因为降水造成土壤湿度变化和植被覆盖动态作用对地面通量的影响,而原MM5模式模拟结果则没有反映上述动态变化对地面通量的作用。原MM5模式和耦合模式模拟了1993年8月17日到20日以内蒙古半干旱草原为中心的中尺度区域的气象场,模拟结果和IMGRASS预观测资料进行了对比,对比说明新的陆面过程模式提高了MM5模式对地面通量和边界层各物理量（风、温、湿）的模拟精度。     

东风波诱生低涡发生发展的螺旋度演变特征分析

利用NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料对2001年8月3~4日浙南闽北的东风波暴雨过程,根据螺旋度(Helicity)分析了过程中的暴雨演变以及雁荡山脉诱生中尺度低涡发生发展的原因。同时,利用中尺度有限区域模式MM5V2对该东风波诱生中尺度低涡进行模拟。结果表明:螺旋度大值中心强度和位置的演变较好地反映了暴雨落区和中尺度低涡的诱生、移动,螺旋度的时空演变对暴雨发生有一定的预示意义,螺旋度计算较中尺度模式得出诱生低涡初生位置、路径预报准确率高,二者集成可以提高诱生低涡的预报准确率。     

1∶500到1∶5000地形图缩编中等高线的快速生成技术

由于1∶500与1∶5 000两种比例尺地形图中等高线的技术指标差别极大,因此要实现从1∶500到1∶5 000地形图的缩编,如何在保证质量的前提下高效地对等高线进行缩编,是一个难度很大的技术问题。文章通过探索和实验,总结出基于GeoTIN的等高线缩编技术方法,这种方法在实际生产中被证明是有效的、可靠的和具有实用性的。     

10个CMIP5模式预估中亚地区未来50 a降水时空变化特征

利用CRU月降水资料首先对参与IPCC第五次评估报告（IPCC AR5）的10个CMIP5模式对1951-2005年中亚地区年降水气候平均态、年际变率以及线性趋势等特征参数的模拟能力进行了系统评估,并选取具有较好模拟性能模式的未来预估试验结果作多模式集合平均预估未来50 a（2011-2060年）中亚地区在不同代表性浓度路径下降水量各特征参数的空间分布特征,结果表明：多数模式能够模拟出中亚地区年降水气候平均态、年际变率以及线性趋势的空间分布特征,同时发现中亚地区年降水量在过去50 a整体以轻微增加为主,趋势不显著。根据定量评估结果,从10个模式中选取4个具有较好模拟性能的模式结果做集合平均,同时利用历史回报试验数据进行检验,发现集合平均的模拟结果无论在量级还是高、低值中心的位置和范围与CRU资料非常接近。未来预估结果表明4种排放情景下4模式集合平均的中亚年降水在未来50 a增加较为明显,尤其在中国新疆南部（由低值区转变为高值区）。总体来看,未来50 a中亚降水增加趋势随着RCPs的增加而增加,且降水增加显著的区域随着RCPs的增加而明显增大。