2013年长江中下游夏季高温干旱演变过程及环流异常成因简析

利用改进的CIn指数,结合NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,逐候分析2013年夏季长江中下游地区高温干旱演变过程和高温异常成因。结果表明：改进后的CIn指数能够准确识别此次干旱过程,整体持续时间近一个月。旱情从7月第4候湖南南部开始,8月第3候干旱程度最强,特旱中心位于湖南省中东部,浙江省为高温中心,8月第4候旱情得到缓解。在干旱成因上,极涡位置异常偏西,影响长江中下游地区冷空气偏弱,南亚高压东伸与西太平洋副热带高压西伸明显;鄂霍次克海至菲律宾一带呈较强的EAP遥相关型,其中长江中下游地区位势高度的正异常加强了西太平洋副热带高压的中心强度并使其位置偏西;乌拉尔山地区的阻塞高压与西太平洋副热带高压相对峙,有利于西太平洋副热带高压长期稳定地控制在长江中下游地区;同时欧亚大陆与西太平洋海陆温差增大,东亚夏季风偏强,西太平洋副热带高压异常偏北,长江中下游地区下沉气流强盛,在西太平洋副热带高压和南亚高压共同作用下,造成持续的高温干旱过程。     

基于混合回归模型的夏季高温日数预测

本文以变化比较激烈的高温日数为对象,通过加权叠加、周期波动以及尺度比较等理论分析提出一种短期气候预测观点,即长周期波动可用当地前期各种气象要素的长周期波动的某种函数表示,而短周期波动依然与大范围周边环境因子的变化有关。采用功率谱分析、逐步回归、方差分析等常用统计手段和二项式平滑方法,建立长周期波动和波动偏差比的预报方程,在此基础上得到高温日数的预报方程。应用该方法对合肥地区的高温日数进行了预测试验,利用滚动预报得到13个预报样本。在13个试测样本中,有11个样本试测较为准确,试测准确率达到84．6％。在试测不准确的2个样本中,误差有5～6d,而且它们出现在高温日数相对较多的年份,因此试测效果令人满意。     

连云港海区养殖优质条斑紫菜原因研究

根据条斑紫菜的生物学特性及不同生育期的生长、发育要求,通过对我国沿海主要海区11～4月的海温、雾、风向、降水量及雨日和海区底质状况分析,得出连云港海区养殖条斑紫菜的客观条件比其他海区优越,所养殖的条斑紫菜品质好的结论。     

Benchmark computations for flows around a stationary cylinder with high Reynolds numbers by RANS-overset grid approach

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the accuracy, stability and efficiency of the overset grid approach coupled with the RANS (Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes) model via the benchmark computations of flows around a stationary smooth circular cylinder. Two dimensional numerical results are presented within a wide range of Reynolds numbers (6.31 × 10⁴ ∼ 7.57 × 10⁵) including the critical flow regime. All the simulations are carried out using the RANS solver pimpleFoam provided by OpenFOAM, an open source CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) toolkit. Firstly, a grid convergence study is performed. The results of the time-averaged drag and lift force coefficients, root-mean square value of lift force coefficient and Strouhal number (St number) are then compared with the experimental data. The velocity, vorticity fields and pressure distribution are also given. One main conclusion is that the numerical solutions in regard to a fixed cylinderare not deteriorated due to the implementation of the overset grid. Furthermore, it can be an appealing approach to facilitate simulations of Vortex Induced Vibrations (VIV), which involves grid deformation. The present study is a good start to implement the overset grid to solve VIV problems in the future.     

四种海水透明度现场测量方法的对比分析及发展趋势研究

随着海洋探测的不断发展,海水透明度作为海水光学性质的一个重要参量,也越来越受到人们的关注。文章对比分析了4种海水透明度现场测量方法:透明度盘法~([1])、光纤式高光谱剖面测量法~([2])、激光衰减测量法~([3])和基于双光路原理的海水IOPs高光谱测量法~([4]),主要分析了4种方法的测量原理,对比各自的优缺点,并提出了海水透明度测量未来发展设想。     

巴黎气候会议对全球长期目标的新发展

巴黎气候会议（COP21）达成了包括《巴黎协定》在内的重要成果,丰富和深化了应对气候变化的一揽子长期目标。1.5℃温升控制目标意味着全球管控气候风险的政治意愿得到强化,减缓温室气体排放的路径得到初步勾勒。在未来的科学评估和政治谈判中,全球各区域甚至是各个排放大国的排放空间、排放路径和减缓需求将会进一步清晰化和定量化,还会丰富和深化自上而下的国际气候合作规则,结合当前以国家自主决定贡献（INDC）为特征的、主要以自下而上方式推进全球气候治理的新模式,将对发展中国家、尤其是发展中排放大国的排放配额与发展空间产生重要影响,并进一步影响各国制定其国家贡献目标与行动的自主性。     

滇西牟定—香格里拉电性剖面及深部构造

通过对滇西NW—SE向牟定—香格里拉大地电磁测深剖面的反演并结合地质构造、小震精定位资料,综合分析了剖面经过地区的深部构造.在滇西北地区深部发育一规模巨大的近水平产出地壳高导层,此高导层从香格里拉一直延伸到永胜盆地以东,沿剖面水平延伸超过200km.地壳高导层又可分为两段,两段高导层在剖面上形成两个香蕉型相连的复合形态,高导层之上的高阻体则形成两个碗型相连的复合结构,碗型内部有向东倾斜的相对低阻带存在.滇西北地区整体构造格架可以解译为一套两个主推覆面构成的叠瓦式推覆系统,两个主推覆面高低起伏形成总长度超过250km的底部滑脱带.第一个主推覆面的长度超过150km,并在丽江东部上翘到接近地表,小金河断裂是其延伸到地表的主要破裂带.第二个主推覆面长度超过120km,过程海断裂后上翘并在永胜以东地区出露地表.根据反向低阻带影像,可以推断推覆体反冲构造发育,在玉龙山至丽江以东和永胜盆地西缘至平川盆地东缘形成两处冲起构造.推覆面在剖面上呈现出平缓-陡峭-再平缓-再陡峭的断坪和断坡相间的阶梯状结构.     

The numerical and empirical evaluation of chimneys considering soil structure interaction and high-temperature effects

During the past strong ground motions, chimneys constructed according to international standards are representative of similar structures at industrial areas throughout the world, including those collapsed or moderately damaged in earthquake-prone regions. This is due to the specialty of structural characteristics and the special loads acting on the structure such as earthquakes, wind and differences in the level of temperature, etc. In this context, the researchers and designers should focus on the dynamic behavior of chimneys especially under high temperature and seismic effects. For this purpose, the main focus of this study is to evaluate the dynamic response of a chimney under the above-mentioned effects considering soil-structure interaction (SSI). A 52 m steel chimney in Yeşilyurt township of Samsun City in Turkey was studied. The in-situ model testing and numerical models were compared. Before the commissioning of the chimney, a series of tests was realized to define its dynamic characteristics in case of no-heat and after the fabric got to work, the same tests were repeated for the same sensor locations to understand the heat effect on the dynamic response of the chimney. The ambient vibration tests are proven to be fast and practical procedures to identify the dynamic characteristics of those structures. The dynamic testing of the towers promises a widespread use, as the identification of seismic vulnerability of such structures becomes increasingly important. The data presented in this study are considered to be useful for the researchers and engineers, for whom the temperature and SSI effects on steel chimneys are a concern. Using the modal analysis techniques, presented finite element simulation for the soil/pile foundation-chimney interaction system is verified. The results of modal analyses using numerical solutions are shown to have acceptable accuracy compared with results obtained by in-situ test. The present study also aims to provide designers with material examples about the influence of these on the seismic performance of steel chimneys by means of reflecting the changes in the dynamic behavior.     

新疆东准噶尔花岗岩类岩石高温高压弹性波速度及其对地壳结构的约束

应用超声波反射-透射法,在最高压力为1.0 GPa（室温）,最高温度为700℃（1.0 GPa）的条件下对新疆东准噶尔地区的卡拉麦里花岗岩带和野马泉岩体的典型花岗岩类岩石（碱长花岗岩、碱性花岗岩、花岗闪长岩、二长花岗岩和石英闪长岩）的纵波速度（V_P）和横波速度（V_S）进行了测量.结果显示,在常温、压力0.4~1.0 GPa条件下,东准噶尔地区花岗岩类岩石的V_P和V_S均随压力呈线性增加,说明在这个压力段岩石中的微裂隙已基本闭合.室温、1.0 GPa时花岗岩类岩石的V_P是5.79~6.84 km·s^-1,V_S是3.26~3.85 km·s^-1.依据压力与V_P及压力与V_S的线性关系,拟合得到常温常压下花岗岩类岩石的纵波和横波压力系数分别是0.1568~0.4078 km/（s·GPa）和0.0722~0.3271 km/（s·GPa）,V_P0和V_S0分别是5.62~6.47 km·s^-1和3.15~3.75 km·s^-1.恒压1.0 GPa、室温到700℃条件下,花岗岩类岩石的V_P和V_S均随温度的升高呈线性降低,温度系数分别为（-3.41~-4.96）×10^-4 km/（s·℃）和（-0.88~-3.22）×10^-4 km/（s·℃）.利用实验获得的花岗岩类岩石的V_P0、V_S0及温度系数和压力系数,结合东准噶尔地区的地热资料,建立了V_P和V_S随深度变化的剖面.将获得的V_P和V_S-深度剖面与该区地球物理探测结果对比,发现东准噶尔地区的碱长花岗岩、碱性花岗岩、二长花岗岩和部分花岗闪长岩的V_P和V_S与该区上地壳速度吻合很好,同时这几种岩石的平均泊松比也与上地壳泊松比一致,因此我们认为这几种类型的岩石是该区上地壳的重要组成部分.另外,石英闪长岩的V_P和V_S均符合中地壳的速度,可能为中地壳中的一种岩石.     

The effects of asymmetric potential vorticity forcing on the instability of South Asia High and Indian summer monsoon onset

Based on the theory of potential vorticity(PV),the unstable development of the South Asia High(SAH)due to diabatic heating and its impacts on the Indian Summer Monsoon(ISM)onset are studied via a case diagnosis of 1998.The Indian Summer Monsoon onset in 1998 is related to the rapidly strengthening and northward moving of a tropical cyclone originally located in the south of Arabian Sea.It is demonstrated that the rapid enhancement of the cyclone is a consequence of a baroclinic development characterized by the phase-lock of high PV systems in the upper and lower troposphere.Both the intensification of the SAH and the development of the zonal asymmetric PV forcing are forced by the rapidly increasing latent heat released from the heavy rainfall in East Asia and South East Asia after the onsets of the Bay of Bengal(BOB)monsoon and the South China Sea(SCS)monsoon.High PV moves southwards along the intensified northerlies on the eastern side of the SAH and travels westwards on its south side,which can reach its northwest.Such a series of high PV eddies are transported to the west of the SAH continuously,which is the main source of PV anomalies in the upper troposphere over the Arabian Sea from late spring to early summer.A cyclonic curvature on the southwest of the SAH associated with increasing divergence,which forms a strong upper tropospheric pumping,is generated by the anomalous positive PV over the Arabian Sea on 355 K.The cyclone in the lower troposphere moves northwards from low latitudes of the Arabian Sea,and the upper-layer high PV extends downwards and southwards.Baroclinic development thus occurs and the tropical low-pressure system develops into an explosive vortex of the ISM,which leads to the onset of the ISM.In addition,evolution of subtropical anticyclone over the Arabian Peninsula is another important factor contributing to the onset of the ISM.Before the onset,the surface sensible heating on the Arabian Peninsula is very strong.Consequently the subtropical anticyclone which dominated the Arabian Sea in spring retreats westwards to the Arabian Peninsula and intensifies rapidly.The zonal asymmetric PV forcing develops gradually with high PV eddies moving southwards along northerlies on the eastern side of the anticyclone,and a high PV trough is formed in the middle troposphere over the Arabian Sea,which is favorable to the explosive barotropic development of the tropical cyclone into the vortex.Results from this study demonstrate that the ISM onset,which is different from the BOB and the SCS monsoon onset,is a special dynamical as well as thermodynamic process occurring under the condition of fully coupling of the upper,middle,and lower tropospheric circulations.