An incremental Knox test for the determination of the serial interval between successive cases of an infectious disease

An estimate of the interval between successive infections is essential for surveillance, control, and modeling of infectious diseases. This paper proposes a method for determining the serial interval when the location and time of onset of illness are known. The theoretical underpinning of this method is the intrinsically spatial nature of disease transmission. Successive infections tend to be closer than unrelated cases of disease and, therefore, exhibit spatial clustering. An incremental Knox type analysis of cases is introduced. Cases occurring at a range of time intervals are examined to determine the serial interval. The significance of clustering is determined using a permutation approach under the null hypothesis of space-time independence. The power of this method is evaluated using an individual level, spatially explicit epidemic simulation. The time increment Knox test is robust to multiple introductions and incomplete sampling. Finally, the increment Knox statistic is used to analyze an outbreak of dengue fever in the city of Florida, Puerto Rico during 1991. Results indicate that the likely interval between successive cases during this outbreak is at least 18–19 days.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: Rabat: Urban Apartheid in Morocco . Janet Abu -Lughod . Marketplaces in a Developing Country: The Case of Western Nigeria . Isaac Ayinde Adalemo . Farming Development and Space: A World Agricultural Geography . Bernd Andreae . Section and Party: A Political Geography of American Presidential Elections, from Andrew Jackson to Ronald Reagan . J. Clark Archer and Peter J. Taylor . Women and Space: Ground Rules and Social Maps . Shirley Ardener , ed. European Progress in Spatial Analysis . R. J. Bennett , ed. The Origins of Academic Geography in the United States . Brian W. Blouet Geographic Perspectives on Global Problems . Ronald Reed Boyce . Seasonal Dimensions to Rural Poverty . Robert Chambers , Richard Longhurst and Arnold Pacey eds. The New Nationalism and the Use of Common Spaces: Issues in Marine Pollution and the Exploitation of Antarctica . Jonathan I. Charney , ed. Communications Tomorrow: The Coming of the Information Society . Edward Cornish , ed. The Design of Suburbia . Arthur Edwards . Explorer on the Northern Plains: Lieutenant Gouverneur K. Warren's Preliminary Report of Explorations in Nebraska and Dakota in the Years 1855–56–57. With an Introduction by Frank N. Schubert . The Changing Climate: Responses of the Natural Flora and Fauna . Michael J. Ford . Essentials of Physical Geography . Robert E. Gabler , Robert J. Sager , Sheila Brazier , and Daniel L. Wise. The Road to Jaramillo . William Glen . Valued Environments . John R. Gold and Jacquelin Burgess , eds. Proximity and Preference: Problems in the Multidimensional Analysis of Large Data Sets . Reginald G. Golledge and John N. Rayner , eds. A Search for Common Ground . Peter Gould and Gunnar Olsson , eds. Geography: Its History and Concepts . Arild Holt -Jensen . A Population Geography . Huw R. Jones . The Human Mosaic: A Thematic Introduction to Cultural Geography, 3rd ed. Terry G. Jordan and Lester Rowntree . Urban Social Geography: An Introduction . Paul Knox . The Anatomy of Job Loss: The How, Why and Where of Employment Decline . Doreen Massey and Richard Meegan . The Information Society as Post-Industial Society . Yoneji Masuda . Map Librarianship, 2nd ed. Harold Nichols . India: Cultural Patterns and Processes . Allen G. Noble and Ashok K. Dutt , eds. The God that Limps: Science and Technology in the Eighties . Colin Norman . Geography: An Introductory Perspective . Robert E. Norris , Keith D. Harries and John D. Vitek . The Politics of Technology Assessment . David M. O'Brien and Donald A. Marchand . Ethnic Segregation in Cities . Ceri Peach , Vaughan Robinson and Susan Smith , eds. Churches and Church Membership in the United States, 1980 . Bernard Quinn , Herman Anderson , Martin Bradley , Paul Goetting and Peggy Shriver . Energy in Australia: Politics and Economics . Hugh Saddler . Development from Above or Below? The Dialectics of Regional Planning in Developing Countries . Walter B. Stóuhr and D. R. Fraser Taylor , eds. Human Impact on the Ecosystem . Joy Tivy and Greg O'Hare . Plants and People: Vegetation Change in North America . Thomas R. Vale . The Mapmakers: The Story of the Great Pioneers in Cartography from Antiquity to the Space Age . John Noble Wilford .     

气候异常对2007年度许昌小麦生产的影响

分析了2007年度气候异常引起的农业气象灾害和病虫害及其对小麦生育的影响，并提出了应对气候异常对许昌小麦生产影响的对策。     

桂林柑桔主要病虫害发生的气象条件分析

通过桂林地区柑桔主要病虫害发生发展的气象条件分析,找出了病虫害的发生发展与气象条件的关系很密切。     

Aerosol transmission of human pathogens: From miasmata to modern viral pandemics and their preservation potential in the Anthropocene record

Ongoing uncertainty over the relative importance of aerosol transmission of COVID-19 is in part rooted in the history of medical science and our understanding of how epidemic diseases can spread through human populations. Ancient Greek medical theory held that such illnesses are transmitted by airborne pathogenic emanations containing particulate matter (“miasmata”). Notable Roman and medieval scholars such as Varro, Ibn al-Khatib and Fracastoro developed these ideas, combining them with early germ theory and the concept of contagion. A widely held but vaguely defined belief in toxic miasmatic mists as a dominant causative agent in disease propagation was overtaken by the science of 19th century microbiology and epidemiology, especially in the study of cholera, which was proven to be mainly transmitted by contaminated water. Airborne disease transmission came to be viewed as burdened by a dubious historical reputation and difficult to demonstrate convincingly. A breakthrough came with the classic mid-20th century work of Wells, Riley and Mills who proved how expiratory aerosols (their “droplet nuclei”) could transport still-infectious tuberculosis bacteria through ventilation systems. The topic of aerosol transmission of pathogenic respiratory diseases assumed a new dimension with the mid-late 20th century “Great Acceleration” of an increasingly hypermobile human population repeatedly infected by different strains of zoonotic viruses, and has taken centre stage this century in response to outbreaks of new respiratory infections that include coronaviruses. From a geoscience perspective, the consequences of pandemic-status diseases such as COVID-19, produced by viral pathogens utilising aerosols to infect a human population currently approaching 8 billion, are far-reaching and unprecedented. The obvious and sudden impacts on for example waste plastic production, water and air quality and atmospheric chemistry are accelerating human awareness of current environmental challenges. As such, the “anthropause” lockdown enforced by COVID-19 may come to be seen as a harbinger of change great enough to be preserved in the Anthropocene stratal record.     

模拟热浪天气对冠心病影响及其机理实验研究

通过模拟热浪天气对冠心病小鼠影响实验研究,探讨高温热浪对冠心病影响的机理.应用TEM1880气象环境模拟箱模拟一次实际的热浪天气过程,按体重大小将18只冠心病小鼠分配至6个区组,每个区组3只,再将3只小鼠随机分配到对照组、热浪组、热浪BH4组中,每组共有6只小鼠.放入模拟箱内,使其受热浪天气影响,模拟热浪天气结束后,采用断头采血和摘取心脏,测量各组小鼠的ET-1、NO、HSP60、SOD、TNF、sICAM-1和HIF-1α的含量.结果表明,热浪天气可导致冠心病小鼠心肌组织SOD活性明显下降,而NO、HSP60、TNF、sICAM-1和HIF-1α的含量增加,但对ET-1水平没有任何影响.通过各项生化指标分析得知,热浪可诱导冠心病小鼠心肌组织HSP60含量明显增加,过多的HSP60可以活化免疫细胞,诱导内皮细胞、巨噬细胞分泌大量ICAM-1、TNF-α等炎性细胞因子,进而激活体内炎症系统,破坏冠状血管内皮细胞结构,使血管内膜通透性增高,心脏组织SOD活性下降,使氧化血液中的脂蛋白加剧,大量的胆固醇加速了胆固醇穿透内膜在血管内壁上的沉积,形成动脉粥样硬化,致使冠心病病情加重;从而诱导ICAM-1、血栓素等血管活性物增加,造成血粘度增加,促使血栓的形成;抑制脂蛋白酯酶活性,诱导脂质浸润血管内膜,形成动脉硬化斑块,同时控制巨噬细胞的胆固醇代谢,利于脂质物质沉积于血管壁而增加冠脉疾病风险.该实验是高温热浪导致冠心病病情加重,甚至死亡的初步机理研究成果,可为我国高温热浪预警服务和冠心病防御等提供理论依据.     

海水网箱养殖鲈鱼淋巴囊肿病的初步研究

在 1996年调查的基础上 ,首次报道了浙江海水网箱养殖鲈鱼淋巴囊肿病的发病情况 :发病季节在 6～ 8月 ,1龄鱼苗发病率 70 %,死亡率 30 %。电镜观察表明 ,体表和鳍上的疣状物主要由淋巴囊肿细胞组成 ,细胞内充满虹彩病毒颗粒。肝细胞和肠上皮细胞内没有发现病毒颗粒 ,但溶酶体数量增多 ,肝细胞结构有部分损伤。本文还描述了虹彩病毒在肥大细胞内的增殖过程。     

虾夷马粪海胆黑嘴病的初步研究

对虾夷马粪海胆“黑嘴病”进行了初步的研究。经分离、纯化后鉴定黑嘴病的病原菌为坚强芽孢杆菌 (BacillusfirmusBredemannetWarner)。同时报道了该菌为革兰氏阳性杆菌 ,大小为(0.6～0.7)μm×(0.8～1.0)μm。可在1%～7%NaCl中生长 ,最适盐度2～3 ;最适pH为7～8;生长温度为8～26℃ ,最适生长温度为15℃。该菌对磺胺甲基异恶唑、复方新诺明和头孢噻肟等抗生素敏感 ,可用之治疗     

Simulation of the spread of infectious diseases in a geographical environment

The study of mathematical models for the spread of infectious diseases is an important issue in epidemiology. Given the fact that most existing models cannot comprehensively depict heterogeneities (e.g., the population heterogeneity and the distribution heterogeneity) and complex contagion patterns (which are mostly caused by the human interaction induced by modern transportation) in the real world, a theoretical model of the spread of infectious diseases is proposed. It employs geo-entity based cellular automata to simulate the spread of infectious diseases in a geographical environment. In the model, physical geographical regions are defined as cells. The population within each cell is divided into three classes: Susceptible, Infective, and Recovered, which are further divided into some subclasses by states of individuals. The transition rules, which determine the changes of proportions of those subclasses and reciprocal transformation formulas among them, are provided. Through defining suitable spatial weighting functions, the model is applied to simulate the spread of the infectious diseases with not only local contagion but also global contagion. With some cases of simulation, it has been shown that the results are reasonably consistent with the spread of infectious diseases in the real world. The model is supposed to model dynamics of infectious diseases on complex networks, which is nearly impossible to be achieved with differential equations because of the complexity of the problem. The cases of simulation also demonstrate that efforts of all kinds of interventions can be visualized and explored, and then the model is able to provide decision-making support for prevention and control of infectious diseases. Supported by Postdoctoral Foundation of China (Grant No. 20070410552) and Youth Fund of Institute of Policy and Management (IPM), the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. O700481Q01)     

热带海洋珍珠贝类立克次体病研究 Ⅳ.组织细胞病理学研究

类立克次体（RLO）对大珠母贝和合浦珠母贝具有强烈的致病性,引起基本一致的病理变化．在急性坏死破坏期内,RLO导致外套膜、鳃、消化管、肝胰腺、生殖腺腺管及全身血管内皮系统等多器官组织的变性坏死,使器官组织结构的完整性遭到破坏,破坏程度与RLO包涵体的数目密切相关,而细胞的破坏与细胞内RLO的生长发育及繁殖到大量数目密切相关．鉴于此,将RLO引起的珍珠贝病称为类立克次体病（RLO病）．RLO病呈急性变质性炎症和慢性增生性炎症病理,在前者细胞呈现崩解性坏死、溶解性坏死和退变性坏死;在后者存在实质细胞增生和纤维母细胞增生为纤维细胞并形成纤维化．根据炎症病理的发展过程,RLO病可分为急性坏死破坏期和慢性增生修复期．