基于SVAR模型的气温变化对南京市工业经济的影响研究

目前气象经济学领域探讨气象因子与经济体之间相互动态影响的研究尚不多见,基于此,采用年平均气温序列及工业产值、GDP、劳动力序列,建立多变量的结构向量自回归模型(SVAR模型),通过脉冲响应函数来考察气温对南京市工业经济的动态影响,并用方差分解法揭示其相互影响程度.结果表明总体上气温升高对南京工业有负面影响,但是这种负面作用是趋缓的,平均每年南京工业产值的3.1%受到气温升高带来的负面影响;同时南京工业经济发展对当地气温升高确实存在促进作用,平均每年南京工业经济发展对本地的气温升高的贡献率有4.4%.研究也说明SVAR模型不失为研究气象因子对经济体影响的可行方法.     

Use of measurement uncertainty in a probabilistic scheme to assess compliance of bottled water with drinking water standards

Ground water bodies are important resources for drinking water, including bottled water, and national regulatory bodies should assess their quality continuously. For this purpose, an effective assessment system of bottled water at source should be installed. A hierarchical nested balance design for the collection of random primary duplicate water samples, and their replicate analyses, is described, and the use of robust analysis of variance to estimate measurement uncertainty. The latter is subsequently used for the development of four probabilistic categories for the classification of element concentrations in bottled water with respect to legislative standard values, i.e., (a) compliant (below Lower Threshold Limit), (b) possibly non-compliant (possibly above Standard Value), (c) probably non-compliant (probably above Standard Value), and (d) non-compliant (above Upper Threshold Limit), for the reliable assessment of compliance to European Union and national drinking water standards. Overall, the quality of European bottled water is considered good, with the exception of a few that have concentrations in Mn, B, Ba, As, Fe, Ni, Se, and Al, which are definitely above the estimated respective Upper Threshold Limit and, thus, exceed the corresponding legislative standard value defined by European Union directives. National regulatory bodies should verify these results, and install an efficient assessment system of compliance to regulatory limits using the methodology described in this paper.     

Generalized minimum variance control for buildings under seismic ground motion

The generalized minimum variance (GMV) algorithm for the control of civil engineering structures is developed and presented in this paper. This algorithm needs the knowledge of the seismic excitation model to derive the autoregressive moving average exogen model of the structure. Then the GMV control is applied. The control is designed such that the variance of the generalized cost function is minimized. To demonstrate the effectiveness of this control technique, simulation tests using a single‐degree‐of‐freedom structure are performed. The results show that the relative displacement of the structure and the control effort are significantly reduced. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influential input classification in probabilistic multimedia models

 Monte Carlo analysis is a statistical simulation method that is often used to assess and quantify the outcome variance in complex environmental fate and effects models. Total outcome variance of these models is a function of (1) the variance (uncertainty and/or variability) associated with each model input and (2) the sensitivity of the model outcome to changes in the inputs. To propagate variance through a model using Monte Carlo techniques, each variable must be assigned a probability distribution. The validity of these distributions directly influences the accuracy and reliability of the model outcome. To efficiently allocate resources for constructing distributions one should first identify the most influential set of variables in the model. Although existing sensitivity and uncertainty analysis methods can provide a relative ranking of the importance of model inputs, they fail to identify the minimum set of stochastic inputs necessary to sufficiently characterize the outcome variance. In this paper, we describe and demonstrate a novel sensitivity/uncertainty analysis method for assessing the importance of each variable in a multimedia environmental fate model. Our analyses show that for a given scenario, a relatively small number of input variables influence the central tendency of the model and an even smaller set determines the spread of the outcome distribution. For each input, the level of influence depends on the scenario under consideration. This information is useful for developing site specific models and improving our understanding of the processes that have the greatest influence on the variance in outcomes from multimedia models.     

方差分析法在定点核旋观测资料质量检验中的应用

本文以地磁场的空间相关性为物理依据，以测点间测值线性回归方程的显著程度，为测点测值的质量检验标准，采用方差分析和相关系数法，以月为时段，分别计算了省内１９９２年１至１０月，１０个地磁台站的Ｆ，ｒ，Ｓ检验结果。结果表明，两种方法的检验效果相似。而方差分析法，在分辨率和准确性方面，明显优于相关系数法。按计算时段，选取标准台的办法，利于克服单一标准台的不足和空间磁场差异性变化对测点测值质量评估的影响。     

Determining the spatial scale of variation in soil radon concentration

Increasing concern about possible links between emissions of radon and certain types of malignant disease has led to local and regional surveys to measure radon concentrations in the soil and in dwellings. The spatial scale at which radon varies is largely unknown, and so efficient sampling schemes and methods of mapping cannot be selected. To determine the spatial scale of radon variation in the English Midlands we measured radon in the soil using solid-state nuclear track detection in three areas of different geological complexity. In two of them we used an unbalanced multistage sampling scheme with seven stages of nesting: the Hereford survey covered distances from 10 m to 7.5 km, and the Buxton survey distances from 1 m to 3.75 km. The results from the nested surveys suggested that geology exerts a strong control on the variation. Finally radon was measured every 20 m along a 2-km long transect which crossed several lithologies close to Nottingham. The soil radon values changed in an erratic way along the transect. The sample variogram of radon has a substantial nugget variance, suggesting that much of the variation occurred for distances less than the sampling interval. The structure at the longer scale seems to be controlled by the underlying geology. These results have implications for designing further surveys and for selecting a method of mapping. Stratification based on lithology might be the only feasible solution to sampling, estimating and mapping radon concentrations over large areas. Where the locally erratic component of variation is large, estimation by kriging, for example, would confer little additional benefit compared with that by classification.     

Givens-Gentleman正交变换及其在卫星激光测距三级复弧估计技术中的应用

本文详细介绍了利用不求平方根的Ｇｉｖｅｎｓ－Ｇｅｎｔｌｅｍａｎ正交变换解线性无偏差最小方差估计问题的基本原理以及各种方法在卫星激光测距三级复弧估计技术中的具体应用,给出了计算估值协方差的一组新的公式。     

GPS基线向量网方差和协方差分量的MINQUE估计

本文应用最小范数二次无偏估计(MINQUE)理论,研究了GPS基线向量网在椭球面上进行三维平差时的方差和协方差分量的估计问题。从理论上提出了方差—协方差模型的选取原则。并从实践中总结出了同时估计基线之长度、方位、高差的固定方差分量和比例方差分量的交替估计方法。通过大量的实例计算和分析,证明这一方法是有效的。     

Spatial variability of infiltration and related properties of tropical soils

The levels of variance associated with measuring the infiltration process and modelling it by means of a regression model are compared to see which approach yields the best results in terms of effort and accuracy. A nested sampling scheme has been used in the three major physiographic units of central Guyana, South America: ‘White Sands’; (Haplic and Ferralic Arenosols), ‘Brown Sands’ (Haplic Ferrasols) and ‘Laterite’ (Xanthic and Dystric Leptosols). Cluster analysis yields three sample groups that reflect the sharp landscape boundaries between the units. Multiple regression analysis shows that each unit has a different combination of soil properties that explains the variance in final infiltration rate and sorptivity satisfactorily. Nested analysis of variance indicates that clear spatial patterns with distances of variation of several hundred metres exist for final infiltration rate in White Sands and Laterite. Infiltration rate in Brown Sands and sorptivity in all units have large short-distance variabilities and high ‘noise’ levels. The correlated independent variables behave accordingly. For the majority of the soil properties, sampling at distances of 100 to 200 m results in variance levels of more than 80 per cent of the total variance, which indicates that only a detailed investigation can assess spatial variation in soil hydrological behaviour. The use of simple soil properties to predict infiltration is only possible in a very general sense and with the acceptance of high variance levels.     

论三角测量单位权方差的先验估计与后验估计

三角洲量单位权方差的先验估值一般用经典菲列罗公式计算。实践中，经常出现三角测量单位权方差的先验估值不等于后验估值的情形．本文根据条件平差的原理，证明了单位权方基的先验估值是有偏估计，经典菲列罗公式是后验估计公式的特殊形式，并推导出了广义菲列罗公式。