三河—平谷地区地脉动H/V谱比法探测:场地响应、浅层沉积结构及其反映的断层活动

1679年三河—平谷8级地震,造成了包括北京在内的华北广大地区严重的人员和经济损失,但是该地区和地震灾害密切相关的沉积结构和地震场地响应特征研究,相对比较缺乏.本文利用1~4 km台间距的高密度单台地脉动观测、几个小孔径台阵观测和钻孔测井数据,研究了三河—平谷地区的浅层沉积的场地响应和沉积层三维起伏特征,以及构造运动对沉积厚度的影响.结果表明,研究区沉积层的场地共振频率和沉积厚度有明显的分区特征：东北部场地共振频率主要在1.0~7.0 Hz之间,具有相对较薄的沉积厚度,沉积界面起伏也相对平稳;西南部场地共振频率大部分区域小于1.0 Hz,可低至0.3 Hz,相应的沉积厚度起伏显著,其中在大厂凹陷厚度可达300~600 m.沉积起伏和隐伏断裂带的分布有较好的对应关系,反映了夏垫断裂、南苑—通县断裂第四纪以来较为活跃的正断活动.北东走向的夏垫等隐伏断裂在东北部山前的正断活动相对不发育,以及东北部和西南部沉积厚度的显著差异,都可能受到北西走向的二十里长山断裂带活动的影响.按照Vs30场地分类,研究区内沉积较厚的凹陷地区主要为E类软土,其他区域为D类中硬土.研究结果与区域地质调查、钻孔数据和浅层地震勘探剖面结果基本相符,说明地脉动探测方法能够高效、低成本的获取区域沉积厚度和场地作用,为地震小区划和抗震设防提供有意义的参考.

     

海河流域降水稳定同位素的云底二次蒸发效应

云底二次蒸发导致的同位素动力分馏可显著影响观测的降水同位素组成和大气水线。本文利用海河流域7个监测站点的降水δ²H和δ¹⁸O数据,分析了云底二次蒸发对流域降水同位素的影响。结果表明：流域降雨水样的大气水线为δ²H=7.19δ¹⁸O-0.74,显著不同于降雪水样的大气水线(δ²H=8.42δ¹⁸O+15.88);流域降雨,特别是小降雨(<5 mm)事件,易受到云底二次蒸发的影响,导致其大气水线的斜率和截距均随着降雨量的减小而减小。流域降雨同位素的云底二次蒸发主要受气温和相对湿度控制,随着气温的升高和相对湿度的减小,云底二次蒸发加剧,导致观测的地面降雨富集重的同位素,同时伴随的同位素动力分馏导致流域降水过量氘(d)值以及大气水线的斜率和截距均减小。与平原地区相比较,流域山间盆地地区受“雨影效应”影响,气候相对干燥,其降雨同位素受更强的云底二次蒸发影响。观测期间,流域小的降雨事件占总降水事件的42%,故云底二次蒸发对流域降水同位素具有重要的影响。     

地缘政治研究中的“盎格鲁—撒克逊”传统

地缘政治理论形成和发展往往受到其主要思想家所代表的具有特定地理特征的国家的利益诉求和政策关切的影响,在地缘政治研究中存在着明显的"国别倾向"。在西方现存的三大地缘政治思想传统中,尤以"盎格鲁—撒克逊"传统影响最大。这一思想传统的主体由马汉的"海权论"、麦金德的"心脏地带"学说、斯皮克曼的"边缘地带"学说构成,主要反映了以英美为代表的海洋性国家的历史经验和利益诉求。     

The preparation of the town maps for Lysons' Magna Britannia

Abstract

Although methods of map preparation and production in the nineteenth century are generally understood, in truth little is known in detail. A rare opportunity to further understanding of the methods of the day is offered by the analysis of the surviving working documents and correspondence related to the production of town maps for Lysons' Magna Britannia. As methods of compilation and preparation become clearer, some of the resultant town maps appear more original and carefully created than previously thought, forcing a reassessment of their value as historical evidence.     

Economic consequences of the US withdrawal from the Kyoto/Bonn Protocol

Abstract

The US decision not to ratify the Kyoto Protocol and the recent outcomes of the Bonn and Marrakech Conferences of the Parties have important implications for both the effectiveness and the efficiency of future climate policies. Among these implications, those related with technical change and with the functioning of the international market for carbon emissions are particularly relevant, because these variables have the largest impact on the overall abatement cost to be borne by Annex B countries in the short and in the long run. This paper analyses the consequences of the US decision to withdraw from the Kyoto/Bonn Protocol both on technological innovation and on the price of emission permits (and, as a consequence, on abatement costs). In particular, the analysis highlights mechanisms and feedbacks related to technological innovation, technological spillovers and R&D which could be relevant and which modify some policy relevant conclusions. First, we identify two feedback effects which explain why our results lead to a less significant fall in the price of permits than in most empirical analyses recently circulated. We show that the US defection from the Kyoto Protocol, by inducing a decline in the demand and price of emission permits, lowers the incentives to undertake energy-saving R&D. As a consequence, emissions increase and feed back on the demand and supply of permits, thus implying a lower decline in the price of permits than previously estimated. At the same time, as a result of the reduced R&D investments and the augmented emissions, climate change damages intensify and require an increase in investments that are again coupled with a growth of emissions. By thus again increasing the demand for permits and reducing their supply, this effect enhances the previous mechanism. Notwithstanding the lower decline in the price of permits, the paper still identifies a smaller price than would occur with a US participation. Therefore, we emphasise in a second step the crucial role of Russia in climate negotiations due to a large increase in Russia's bargaining power.     

川东北不同含硫物质硫同位素组成及H2S成因探讨

自1995年川东北地区渡1井在飞仙关组获得高产的高含硫天然气以来,相继在该地区的罗家寨、滚子坪、渡口河、铁山坡、七里北、普光等构造发现高含硫大中型气田和含气构造,这些构造中的H2S含量一般分布在9%～17%之间.飞仙关组天然气中H2S的б34S值主要分布在 10.3‰～ 13.7‰之间,地层中硬石膏的б34S值则分布在 11.0‰～ 26.1‰之间,即天然气的б34S值比硬石膏的б34S值轻.针对不同含硫物质生成H2S的硫同位素分馏特征进行了一系列实验研究,包括硫化亚铁与盐酸反应,硫磺、硫酸钙分别与正己烷反应,泥灰岩加热生成H2S等,实验结果表明,无机反应生成的H2S的б34S值均比反应物的重.理论上,在硫离子与氢离子结合生成H2S的反应过程中,S2-和H 通过离子的碰撞方式形成的34S2-与H 结合形成H2S的稳定性比32S-与H 结合形成H2S的稳定性高.由此推测,若天然气中的H2S是由地层中硬石膏与烃类的反应生成的,那么H2S的б34S值应该比硬石膏中的б34S值重.综合各种因素认为单质硫与烃类的反应可能是川东北飞仙关组H:S形成最主要的原因.     

Calculated mineral equilibria for eclogites in CaO–Na2O–FeO–MgO–Al2O3–SiO2–H2O: application to the Pouébo Terrane, Pam Peninsula, New Caledonia

The high- P , medium- T  Pouébo terrane of the Pam Peninsula, northern New Caledonia includes barroisite- and glaucophane-bearing eclogite and variably rehydrated equivalents. The metamorphic evolution of the Pouébo terrane is inferred from calculated P–T  and P–T  – X H2O pseudosections for bulk compositions appropriate to these rocks in the model system CaO–Na₂O–FeO–MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂–H₂O. The eclogites experienced a clockwise P–T  path that reached P ≈19  kbar and T  ≈600  °C. The eclogitic mineral assemblages are preserved because reaction consequent upon decompression consumed the rocks' fluid. Extensive reaction occurred only in rocks with fluid influx during decompression of the Pouébo terrane.     

Reactive flow of mixed CO2–H2O fluid and progress of calc-silicate reactions in contact metamorphic aureoles: insights from two-dimensional numerical modelling

Previous models of hydrodynamics in contact metamorphic aureoles assumed flow of aqueous fluids, whereas CO₂ and other species are also common fluid components in contact metamorphic aureoles. We investigated flow of mixed CO₂–H₂O fluid and kinetically controlled progress of calc‐silicate reactions using a two‐dimensional, finite‐element model constrained by the geological relations in the Notch Peak aureole, Utah. Results show that CO₂ strongly affects fluid‐flow patterns in contact aureoles. Infiltration of magmatic water into a homogeneous aureole containing CO₂–H₂O sedimentary fluid facilitates upward, thermally driven flow in the inner aureole and causes downward flow of the relatively dense CO₂‐poor fluid in the outer aureole. Metamorphic CO₂‐rich fluid tends to promote upward flow in the inner aureole and the progress of devolatilization reactions causes local fluid expulsion at reacting fronts. We also tracked the temporal evolution of P‐T‐X_CO2conditions of calc‐silicate reactions. The progress of low‐ to medium‐grade (phlogopite‐ to diopside‐forming) reactions is mainly driven by heat as the CO₂ concentration and fluid pressure and temperature increase simultaneously. In contrast, the progress of the high‐grade wollastonite‐forming reaction is mainly driven by infiltration of chemically out‐of‐equilibrium, CO₂‐poor fluid during late‐stage heating and early cooling of the inner aureole and thus it is significantly enhanced when magmatic water is involved. CO₂‐rich fluid dominates in the inner aureole during early heating, whereas CO₂‐poor fluid prevails at or after peak temperature is reached. Low‐grade metamorphic rocks are predicted to record the presence of CO₂‐rich fluid, and high‐grade rocks reflect the presence of CO₂‐poor fluid, consistent with geological observations in many calc‐silicate aureoles. The distribution of mineral assemblages predicted by our model matches those observed in the Notch Peak aureole.