全球价值链下福州电子信息产业集群升级研究

全球化背景下,嵌入全球价值链的地方产业集群需要通过整合区域内外资源来实现自身的升级。基于全球价值链的研究视角,以福州电子信息产业集群为例剖析地方电子信息产业集群升级过程中遇到的困难和问题。结果表明：对外资的过分依赖,区域网络体系和支撑环境的薄弱是制约产业地方电子信息产业集群升级的重要因素。由此得出,在全球开放系统内培育一个不断发展和演变的总体支撑体系是地方电子信息产业集群升级的关键。     

华南冬季极端低温事件的统计建模及未来预估

基于1961—2005年华南冬季逐日最低温度观测资料,以及参与CMIP5的IPSL-CM5A-MR、MPI-ESM-MR、CMCC-CMS 3个模式的历史模拟和未来排放情景预估数据,从过程角度定义和提取华南冬季极端低温事件及其特征指标,并通过引入极值理论构建极端低温事件的概率分布模型(Cold Spell Model, CSM),刻画其强度、频数和持续时间特征分布;进一步结合基于累计概率分布变换的偏差订正方法降低模式模拟的偏差,探讨了RCP4.5情景下全球升温1.5℃和2℃时极端低温事件的风险变化。研究表明：(1)CSM模型能够较好地拟合极端低温特征概率分布,大部分台站通过了K-S或卡方检验;(2)相对于观测,模式模拟极端低温存在一定偏差,经偏差订正后,各站点BS评分接近于0,SS评分普遍提高到0.88左右;(3)全球增暖背景下,华南地区极端低温呈现强度减弱、频数减少、持续时间缩短的特征。全球增暖1.5、2.0℃背景下,华南大多数地区极端低温事件平均强度减弱,频次降低,持续时间变化具有明显的空间差异;每年发生1次极端低温事件的概率增加,但每年发生3、5次的概率减少;增暖1.5℃下极端低...     

Reference value of old people's hematocrit and geographical factors

1 IntroductionHematocrit is an important index of hemorheology. At present, it is difficult to achieve accuracy in clinical practice, because of the lack of a unified standard of the reference value of old people's hematocrit in China. Many researchers have measured the reference value of local old people's hematocrit[1-59]. No reports on the relationship between the reference values of old people's hematocrit and geographical factors have been found. By means of correlation and stepwise regr…     

汾河源区生态系统服务价值的时空变化

运用GIS和遥感技术分析了汾河源区宁武县1990、2000、2010年的土地利用/覆被时空变化特征,并参照中国不同陆地生态系统单位面积服务价值,分析了该区域生态系统服务价值的时空变化。结果表明:1990-2010年,研究区生态系统服务价值共损失0.34×10⁸元,且损失量和损失幅度呈增加趋势;研究区东北到西南方向上的大片低海拔区域生态系统服务价值减幅较大,主要与该区域频繁的人类活动有关,而高海拔山区减幅较小或略有增加。气候暖干化、过度放牧和建设用地增加引起的草地和水域减少是导致研究区生态系统服务价值减少的主要原因。     

Designing effective and equitable zero-deforestation supply chain policies

In response to the clearing of tropical forests for agricultural expansion, agri-food companies have adopted promises to eliminate deforestation from their supply chains in the form of ‘zero-deforestation commitments’ (ZDCs). While there is growing evidence about the environmental effectiveness of these commitments (i.e., whether they meet their conservation goals), there is little information on how they influence producers’ opportunity to access sustainable markets and related livelihood outcomes, or how design and implementation choices influence tradeoffs or potential synergies between effectiveness and equity in access. This paper explores these research gaps and makes three main contributions by: i) defining and justifying the importance of analyzing access equity and its relation to effectiveness when implementing forest-focused supply chain policies such as ZDCs, ii) identifying seven policy design principles that are likely to maximize synergies between effectiveness and access equity, and iii) assessing effectiveness-access equity tensions and synergies across common ZDC implementation mechanisms amongst the five largest firms in each of the leading agricultural forest-risk commodity sectors: palm oil, soybeans, beef cattle, and cocoa. To enhance forest conservation while avoiding harm to the most vulnerable farmers in the tropics, it is necessary to combine stringent rules with widespread capacity building, greater involvement of affected actors in the co-production of implementation mechanisms, and support for alternative rural development paths.     

适用于矢量瓦片缓存替换的视点相关预测区域算法

传统的缓存置换策略未充分考虑数据访问的空间特征,也不适用于基于矢量瓦片的替换。该文根据矢量瓦片的空间数据结构,提出一种适用于矢量瓦片缓存替换的视点相关预测区域算法:首先根据瓦片存储中多分辨率金字塔结构进行空间单元划分,并根据用户操作类型求解矢量瓦片及空间单元热度,从而构建用户视点位置相关的预测区域;然后综合考虑瓦片层级、空间单元热度及距离等因素进行预测区域分析,获得瓦片缓存价值并进行瓦片置换。通过与传统的FIFO、LRU和LFU缓存策略相比较,该算法的瓦片命中率比FIFO和LRU分别提高了近50%和20%,瓦片的请求耗时分别缩短了50%和30%左右,相比LFU也有明显优势。该研究为WebGIS提供了一种更具潜力的瓦片缓存方法。     

生物土壤结皮：荒漠昆虫食物链的重要构建者

干旱荒漠地区由于水分因子的限制,其植被分布以不连续的高等植物斑块与隐花植物及其结皮的斑块镶嵌为其主要特征,构成了独特的荒漠植被景观格局。作为荒漠生态系统的主要组成者,荒漠昆虫与生境的关系,特别是与高等植物之间的食物链关系已得到大量的文献报道。本文基于野外调查和实验室模拟观测,发现了尖尾东鳖甲(Anatolica mucronata)对藓类结皮有取食现象,哈蛃(Haslundichilis sp.)对地衣结皮有取食现象。证实了生物土壤结皮直接参与了荒漠昆虫食物链和食物网的构成,为深入了解生物土壤结皮在荒漠生态系统中的功能和地位提供了实验证据。     

植被冠层多角度遥感研究进展

综述了近年来关于植被冠层多角度遥感研究的最新成果，分别讨论了二向性反射的正向模型和参量反演问题在理论和实际应用中的新进展。分析了卫星平台多角度遥感的应用前景及面临的困难，指出了未来多角度遥感研究的新方向。     

上海地区不同重现期的风速估算研究

基于上海气象站历史风速观测资料,采用极值I型和皮尔逊III型分布估算了上海市不同重现期最大风速的时间变化以及各区（县）不同重现期最大和极大风速的空间分布。结果表明,1901~2011年,上海市10、30、50和100 a重现期的最大风速分别为21.0、24.9、26.7和29.2 m/s。1974~2011年期间,上海各区（县）10 m高度10、30、50和100 a重现期的最大风速都是以南部沿海地区南汇或金山最大,分别为19.0、21.4、22.6和24.1 m/s;各重现期极大风速也是以南汇或金山最大,分别为32.3、36.4、38.4和41.0 m/s。中心城区各重现期的最大和极大风速都最小。     

Predicting human mobility with activity changes

Human mobility patterns can provide valuable information in understanding the impact of human behavioral regularities in urban systems, usually with a specific focus on traffic prediction, public health or urban planning. While existing studies on human movement have placed huge emphasis on spatial location to predict where people go next, the time dimension component is usually being treated with oversimplification or even being neglected. Time dimension is crucial to understanding and detecting human activity changes, which play a negative role in prediction and thus may affect the predictive accuracy. This study aims to predict human movement from a spatio-temporal perspective by taking into account the impact of activity changes. We analyze and define changes of human activity and propose an algorithm to detect such changes, based on which a Markov chain model is used to predict human movement. The Microsoft GeoLife dataset is used to test our methodology, and the data of two selected users is used to evaluate the performance of the prediction. We compare the predictive accuracy (R²) derived from the data with and without implementing the activity change detection. The results show that the R² is improved from 0.295 to 0.762 for the user with obvious activity changes and from 0.965 to 0.971 for the user without obvious activity changes. The method proposed by this study improves the accuracy in analyzing and predicting human movement and lays the foundation for related urban studies.