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31.
Numerical simulations of the evolving activity of comet Hale-Bopp are presented, assuming a porous, spherical nucleus, 20 km in radius, made of dust and gas-laden amorphous ice. The main effects included are: crystallization of amorphous ice and release of occluded gas, condensation, sublimation and flow of gases through the pores, changing pore sizes, and flow of dust grains. The model parameters, such as initial pore size and porosity, emissivity, dust grain size, are varied in order to match the observed activity. In all cases, a sharp rise in the activity of the nucleus occurs at a large heliocentric distance pre-perihelion, marked by a few orders of magnitude increase in the CO and the CO2 fluxes and in the rate of dust emission. This is due to the onset of crystallization, advancing down to a few meters below the surface, accompanied by release of the trapped gases. A period of sustained, but variable, activity ensues. The emission of water molecules is found to surpass that of CO at a heliocentric distance of 3 AU. Thereafter the activity is largely determined by the behaviour of the dust. If a dust mantle is allowed to build up, the water production rate does not increase dramatically towards perihelion; if most of the dust is ejected, the surface activity increases rapidly, producing a very bright comet. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   
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利用Logisitic曲线模型和扩展支撑模型对居民可支配收入预测和单项消费预测,以河北省居民的收入及其消费支出为实例,研究了城镇居民和农民的可支配收入分配和单项边际消费倾向,合理建立了预测模型,并理论计算了1999~2003年的通信消费方面的边际消费倾向、预测了2004~2008年通信消费情况。最后,根据预测结果对通信网络建设提出了一些有价值的建议。  相似文献   
34.
We study the evolution of binary stars in globular clusters using a new Monte Carlo approach combining a population synthesis code ( startrack ) and a simple treatment of dynamical interactions in the dense cluster core using a new tool for computing three- and four-body interactions ( fewbody ). We find that the combination of stellar evolution and dynamical interactions (binary–single and binary–binary) leads to a rapid depletion of the binary population in the cluster core. The maximum binary fraction today in the core of a typical dense cluster such as 47 Tuc, assuming an initial binary fraction of 100 per cent, is only ∼ 5–10 per cent. We show that this is in good agreement with recent Hubble Space Telescope observations of close binaries in the core of 47 Tuc, provided that a realistic distribution of binary periods is used to interpret the results. Our findings also have important consequences for the dynamical modelling of globular clusters, suggesting that 'realistic models' should incorporate much larger initial binary fractions than has usually been the case in the past.  相似文献   
35.
IntroductionThe radiance leaving the earth-atmosphere sys-tem which can be sensed by a satellite borne ra-diometer is the sum of radiation emission fromtheearth surface and each atmospheric level that aretransmittedtothe top of the atmosphere.The radia-tion emissionfromthe earthsurface andthe radianceof each atmospheric level can be separated fromtheradiance at the top the atmospheric level a satellitemeasured.Thus,the earth surface parameters willbe retrieved from the surface radiance after a…  相似文献   
36.
利用 12年的Lageos 1卫星激光测距资料 (1990 - 2 0 0 1)解算得到了地球定向参数 (EOP) ,将该序列的结果与同期的EOP(IERS)C0 4进行比较 ,其外符精度为 :极移XP— 0 .4 0mas,YP— 0 .4 2mas ,日长变化Dr— 0 .0 35ms。  相似文献   
37.
It is very important to establish cooperative mechanism to guarantee all members to develop their e-conomies in the Yellow Sea Rim. In this paper, the development strategies ofshipplng centers and transportation networkare discussed based on economic giobalization tendency. The results argue that a united transportation network should bebuilt in order to promote the economic competition of Northeast Asia in the world. As a key component of the economiccooperation, a hierarchical shipping centers network should be established with Hong Kong, Shanghai, Pusan, Koho,and Tokyo as cores. The authorities of China, Japan, R. O. Korea and D. P. B. Korea should make more efforts tobuild a set of cooperation institutions based on raising the transportation efficiency.  相似文献   
38.
Empirical criteria have been used successfully to design filters of most embankment large dam projects throughout the world. However, these empirical rules are only applicable to a particular range of soils tested in laboratory and do not take into account the variability of the base material and filter particle sizes. In addition, it is widely accepted that the safety of fill dams is mainly dependent on the reliability of their filter performance. The work herein presented consists in a new general method for assessing the probability of fulfilling any empirical filter design criteria accounting for base and filter heterogeneity by means of first‐order reliability methods (FORM), so that reliability indexes and probabilities of fulfilling any particular criteria are obtained. This method will allow engineers to estimate the safety of existing filters in terms of probability of fulfilling their design criteria and might also be used as a decision tool on sampling needs and material size tolerances during construction. In addition, sensitivity analysis makes possible to analyse how reliabilities are influenced by different sources of input data. Finally, in case of a portfolio risk assessment, this method will allow engineers to compare the safety of several existing dams in order to prioritize safety investments and it is expected to be a very useful tool to evaluate probabilities of failure due to internal erosion. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
39.
The characteristics of Asian dust events that occurred in Northeast Asia during the springtime from 1993 to 2004 are investigated using 3-hourly SYNOP reports (World Meteorological Organization). Occurrences of blowing sand and dust storm are low in 1997 and 1999, but have increased rapidly since 2000. The maximum occurrence was recorded in 2002. Wind velocity of 6.5 m s− 1 as a threshold wind velocity is not so exactly consistent with the occurrence of blowing sand. However, wind velocity of 14 m s− 1 as a strong wind causing dust storm had similar tendency to those of dust storm and Dust Storm Index.Source regions of Asian dust are divided into three regions (A: dry arid, B: semi-arid, and C: cultivated), based upon the occurrence of blowing sand and dust storm. Eight meteorological stations are selected in three regions, which have frequent occurrences of blowing sand. Source regions of Asian dust that affect the Korean peninsula are gradually extending eastward. Positive anomalies of NDVI occurred in 1994, 1995, and 1998 when temperature was high and precipitation was heavy. However, the frequent occurrence of the dust phenomena is not always consistent with lots of vegetation, high temperature, and much precipitation in this study.  相似文献   
40.
个人所得税是与每个人联系都很紧密的税种,它的完善与否,直接体现了我国法制建设的完善程度及居民素质的高低。但现行税制由于内外原因,存在各种缺陷。因此有必要在理论中找到对策,并在实践中寻求答案逐步完善个人所得税制度。  相似文献   
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