半封闭海域生态修复策略研究——以渤海为例

渤海作为我国唯一的半封闭型海域,是京津冀城市群蓬勃发展的战略支撑和关键依托,其生态环境的稳定与沿岸人类福祉息息相关,其生态环境修复是近年来该领域的研究热点。文章重点围绕全球气候变化和人类活动对渤海生态环境的影响进行了剖析,通过综合对比分析国内外其他类似水域或地区的生态修复既有成果,立足渤海水域特点和现状,提出动态思维与整体保护原则、生境连通性修复原则、不同时空尺度修复原则等生态修复原则,并指出渤海生态修复需理性规划渔业经济活动,统筹考虑渤海生态与冲淡水之间的关系,建议运用前瞻性的思维模式和理念,合理预测、规划、定位、配置、实施和维护渤海生态系统的稳定,重点探索应对全球气候变化的最佳适应性管理策略。     

面向治理的地理学发展刍议

“四个面向”（面向世界科技前沿、面向经济主战场、面向国家重大需求、面向人民生命健康）已成为新时代中国科学发展的指针。治理是一个反映“四个面向”的国际前沿研究领域,也是地理学和其他学科研究的焦点。围绕地理学如何应对治理这一关键问题,基于人地耦合的理念,系统梳理国内外地理学进行治理研究的轨迹与特点,从价值、思想、方法、技术4个维度发掘面向治理的地理学发展路径,紧密联系地理学发展动态及治理现代化的实践,从基础研究、平台建设、人才培育3个方面提出发展策略。提升中国地理学在国际治理研究中的影响力,促进地理学与其他学科的交叉融合,将自然与人文有机结合的理念应用于社会治理,增进居民福祉,并服务国家战略和区域可持续发展。     

“组织-贸易”视角下全球能源治理网络的基本结构及其边界重构

全球能源治理是当前能源话语权塑造的重要形式,其本质是能源利益主体间围绕多元能源议题而构建的关系网络。在以往相关研究中,各能源组织的架构、功能、绩效以及所产生的复杂影响占据了主要内容,而对于全球能源治理的整体结构以及内部关系却未能有进一步探索。本研究认为,能源组织与实际贸易存在交互关系,将二者相结合来进一步呈现和解释全球能源治理架构是有必要的。基于此,本研究以2019年为时间节点,收集主要能源组织的属性数据与各国之间的石油和天然气贸易数据,将国家间在能源治理组织的常态化合作关系与实际发生的能源贸易关系作为分析基础;并利用社会网络分析方法构建全球能源治理网络,探析其基本结构以及出现的“边界重构”现象。研究发现：(1)能源组织网络与能源贸易网络存在显著的结构性差异,在两种网络对比中,美国与俄罗斯均占据主导地位。(2)中国已经成为能源贸易大国,但在全球能源组织合作中不具优势,与传统能源利益集团之间缺乏正式的治理合作。(3)全球能源治理体系呈现出典型的“核心-边缘”结构,主要被划分为欧盟以及亚太-北美“社区”,其中OECD（经济合作与发展组织）国家占据“核心”地位;而以单一能源输出为主导功能的出...     

Volume estimation of small scale debris flows based on observations of topographic changes using airborne LiDAR DEMs

This paper describes a geographic information system(GIS)-based method for observing changes in topography caused by the initiation, transport, and deposition of debris flows using highresolution light detection and ranging(LiDAR) digital elevation models(DEMs) obtained before and after the debris flow events. The paper also describes a method for estimating the volume of debris flows using the differences between the LiDAR DEMs. The relative and absolute positioning accuracies of the LiDAR DEMs were evaluated using a real-time precise global navigation satellite system(GNSS) positioning method. In addition, longitudinal and cross-sectional profiles of the study area were constructed to determine the topographic changes caused by the debris flows. The volume of the debris flows was estimated based on the difference between the LiDAR DEMs. The accuracies of the relative and absolute positioning of the two LiDAR DEMs were determined to be ±10 cm and ±11 cm RMSE, respectively, which demonstrates the efficiency of the method for determining topographic changes at an scale equivalent to that of field investigations. Based on the topographic changes, the volume of the debris flows in the study area was estimated to be 3747 m3, which is comparable with the volume estimated based on the data from field investigations.     

An artificial neural network-based snow cover predictive modeling in the higher Himalayas

With trends indicating increase in temperature and decrease in winter precipitation, a significant negative trend in snow-covered areas has been identified in the last decade in the Himalayas. This requires a quantitative analysis of the snow cover in the higher Himalayas. In this study, a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model, an artificial neural network （ANN）, was deployed to predict the snow cover in the Kaligandaki river basin for the next 30 years. Observed climatic data, and snow covered area was used to train and test the model that captures the gross features of snow under the current climate scenario. The range of the likely effects of climate change on seasonal snow was assessed in the Himalayas using downscaled temperature and precipitation change projection from - HadCM3, a global circulation model to project future climate scenario, under the AIB emission scenario, which describes a future world of very rapid economic growth with balance use between fossil and non-fossil energy sources. The results show that there is a reduction of 9% to 46% of snow cover in different elevation zones during the considered time period, i.e., 2Oll to 2040. The 4700 m to 52oo m elevation zone is the most affected area and the area higher than 5200 m is the least affected. Overall, however, it is clear from the analysis that seasonal snow in the Kaligandaki basin is likely to be subject to substantialchanges due to the impact of climate change.     

Water Flows Toward Power: Socioecological Degradation of Lake Urmia,Iran

Water is an invaluable resource, and equitable access to it is a fundamental human right. Disenfranchised groups often lose access to water resources because their interests are not well represented by decision makers. Excluding these groups from resource management policy often results in myopic decisions that contribute to further ecosystem damage. We describe the ecological degradation of Lake Urmia in Iran, which has recently experienced increased salinity and declining water quantity. The lake is a UNESCO Biosphere Reserve and Ramsar site, and supports unique biodiversity in the region. The lake's decline is driven by the destruction of Zagros forests and the government's water policies, which diverted water to more politically connected agricultural land users, increasing social inequity and prompting more deforestation. The most straightforward restoration solution is to discontinue the diversions and allow critical inflows to recharge Lake Urmia, preserving the lake and wetlands for migratory birds, tourists, and local communities.     

Constraints and solutions for managing Pacific Island sea cucumber fisheries with an ecosystem approach

The ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF) is a holistic paradigm that considers stocks of exploitable species, marine ecosystems and stakeholders. Management agencies must strike a balance between their capacity constraints and the requisites of management measures. Most small-scale sea cucumber fisheries of Pacific Islands have been plundered while others are being opened to commercial exploitation. Data from fishery managers and a regional workshop were used to assess the current problems, institutional constraints and solutions to the management of sea cucumber fisheries in 13 Pacific Island countries (PICs). Technical capacity was often strong for some management actions such as developing marine reserves but weak for others, such as enforcement. Using multi-disciplinary indicators, half of the fisheries were diagnosed by their managers as being overfished or depleted, despite evidence of optimistic bias. Fishery governance varied greatly among the PICs, and co-management frameworks were not typical of any cultural region. Management objectives were prioritised differently among managers but most highly ranked was to protect ecological resilience. The fishery managers proposed different sets of regulatory measures and various management actions, such as surveys to collect socio-economic and fishery-dependent data, support for local governance and strong enforcement – all widely under-practised. Pacific sea cucumber fisheries exemplify how the transition to an EAF by management institutions must involve reorganisation of their technical and human-resource capacities among management tasks. Levies on exports need to be internalised to fund improved management. Management agencies should consider a shift in resources from developing marine reserves, conducting underwater surveys and aquaculture-based restocking to strengthening enforcement capacity, stakeholder involvement and communication with fishers. In concert with these actions, short fishing seasons, shortlists of allowable species and tighter enforcement at export points may serve to turn the tide on boom-and-bust exploitation and safeguard biodiversity.     

Marine governance of European Seas: Introduction

This introduction explains the context and structure of a block of articles developed as part of the governance work packages of the FP7 project: “Options for Delivering Ecosystem-based Marine management” (ODEMM).     

Can existing institutions protect biodiversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction? Experiences from two on-going processes

United Nations discussions on the governance of marine areas beyond national jurisdiction have questioned, but not yet reached a decision, on whether existing institutional agreements and structures are sufficient to meet global commitments to protect marine biodiversity, or if additional mechanisms may be required. This paper considers two very different efforts to protect marine biodiversity in these areas: (1) in the North-East Atlantic through the efforts of OSPAR Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-East Atlantic; and (2) in the central Atlantic, through the efforts of the Sargasso Sea Alliance led by the Bermuda government. In each case, action has been strongly supported by non-governmental organisations and subsequent progress has hinged upon on-going dedicated efforts of “champion” governments to bring other States on board. This paper outlines the difficulties that they have faced, and consequently why they have been time-consuming, and are not yet completed. The paper then considers 10 common recommendations that can be drawn from the experiences of these two distinct initiatives, and their relevance to on-going UN deliberations.     

Investigation of Uncertainties of Establishment Schemes in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models简

In Dynamic Global Vegetation Models （DGVMs）, the establishment of woody vegetation refers to flowering, fertiliza- tion, seed production, germination, and the growth of tree seedlings. It determines not only the population densities but also other important ecosystem structural variables. In current DGVMs, establishments of woody plant functional types （PFTs） are assumed to be either the same in the same grid cell, or largely stochastic. We investigated the uncertainties in the competition of establishment among coexisting woody PFTs from three aspects： the dependence of PFT establishments on vegetation states; background establishment; and relative establishment potentials of different PFTs. Sensitivity experi- ments showed that the dependence of establishment rate on the fractional coverage of a PFT favored the dominant PFT by increasing its share in establishment. While a small background establishment rate had little impact on equilibrium states of the ecosystem, it did change the timescale required for the establishment of alien species in pre-existing forest due to their disadvantage in seed competition during the early stage of invasion. Meanwhile, establishment purely fiom background （the scheme commonly used in current DGVMs） led to inconsistent behavior in response to the change in PFT specification （e.g., number of PFTs and their specification）. Furthermore, the results also indicated that trade-off between irtdividual growth and reproduction/colonization has significant influences on the competition of establishment. Hence, further development of es- tablishment parameterization in DGVMs is essential in reducing the uncertainties in simulations of both ecosystem structures and successions.