湖泊水位资料与模型模拟恢复的6000年前全球湿润状况的对比研究

本项研究是ＰＭＩＰ（ＰａｌａｅｏｃｌｉｍａｔｅＭｏｄｅｌｉｎｇＩｎｔｅｒｃｏｍｐａｒｉｓｏｎＰｒｏｊｅｃｔ）国际合作项目中有关模型模拟与观测资料对比的一部分。模型试验对象是６０００ｙｒ．ＢＰ的全球湿润状况。模拟试验以检测太阳辐射变化对全球大尺度气候系统的影响为主要目的。观测资料是利用地质证据恢复的古湖泊水位变化,实际上是某一地区的有效降水（降水减蒸发）的变化。通过两者的比较发现,所有模拟试验均能重现６０００ｙｒ．ＢＰ在亚洲南部与非洲北部的湿润环境,从而证实了因太阳辐射变化导致的亚洲与非洲季风的增强。但模拟的季风增强无论是强度还是范围均小于地质记录。原因很可能是模拟试验中下垫面特征用“现代”的来处理。模拟试验对北半球夏季辐射增加造成的西风带北移及由此引起的中纬度地区的气候变化不够成功。绝大多数模拟对受洋流与海温影响较大的地区是失败的。主要原因可能是所有ＰＭＩＰ中的模拟试验都未考虑海洋的作用。     

Information for contributors on Global Geology

The journal of Global Geology （English Edition ） is sponsored by the International Cen- ter of Geoscience Research and Education in Northeast Asia, Jilin University of China. The former name of the journal was the Journal of International GeoscientiJic Research in Northeast Asia which was started in 1998 and served the scientists and teachers in geosciences in the world, particularly for the scientists from the six countries of the NE Asia including China,     

Regional oceans governance mechanisms: A review

The development of regional governance for the protection of the environment, sustainable use of natural resources and conservation of its biodiversity is unquestionably a cornerstone of international environmental law and policy. With regard to marine and coastal issues, it has mainly been taking place through Regional Seas programmes, Regional Fishery Bodies and Large Marine Ecosystems mechanisms. Based on a similar geographical approach, however, these regional mechanisms raise concerns relating to their coordination and efficiency, and possibly overlap in what they aim to achieve. This paper provides a review of existing regional oceans governance mechanisms, assessing their individual and collective capacities to move towards ecosystem-based management, and highlighting options to make the regional landscape more coherent and effective.     

Governance fit for climate change in a Caribbean coastal-marine context

Coastal-marine systems in small island developing states of the Caribbean are highly vulnerable to both current and future climate change. Societies navigate these changes in part through processes of governance and the institutions through which governance takes place. The concept of institutional adaptive capacity is used to explore how governance processes and institutional arrangements can be adapted to match the scale and extent of climate change in a case study of the Soufriere Marine Management Area, St. Lucia. Institutional adaptive capacity is analyzed based on the following factors: institutional variety, analytical deliberation and nesting and networks. The analysis is based on 36 semi-structured interviews conducted with key informants from NGOs, cooperatives, management authorities and government agencies. The findings suggest that governance to address climate change in the case study is contingent upon developing holistic, integrated management systems, improving flexibility in existing collaborative decision making processes, augmenting the capacity of local management authorities with support from higher-level government, exploring opportunities for private–social partnerships, and developing adequate social–environmental monitoring programs. These findings have potential implications and lessons for similar settings throughout the Caribbean.     

Evaluating conditions for transboundary Marine Spatial Planning: Challenges and opportunities on the island of Ireland

Transboundary cooperation is viewed as an essential element of Marine Spatial Planning (MSP). While much of the MSP literature focuses on the need for, and benefits of, transboundary MSP, this paper explores the political and institutional factors that may facilitate the effective transition to such an approach. Drawing on transboundary planning theory and practice, key contextual factors that are likely to expedite the transition to transboundary MSP are reviewed. These include: policy convergence in neighbouring jurisdictions; prior experience of transboundary planning; and good working relations amongst key actors. Based on this review, an assessment of the conditions for transboundary MSP in the adjoining waters of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland is undertaken. A number of recommendations are then advanced for transboundary MSP on the island of Ireland, including, the need to address the role of formal transboundary institutions and the lack of an agreed legal maritime boundary. The paper concludes with some commentary on the political realities of implementing transboundary MSP.     

Rights and ownership in sea country: implications of marine renewable energy for indigenous and local communities

The adoption of UN Convention of the Law of the Sea in 1982 created optimism for indigenous peoples and marginalised coastal communities that they may (re)gain control of, or improve access to, marine resources. However concerns were also raised that opening the seas to industrial development might create threats for traditional users of the sea. Twenty-five years later the potential enclosure of large areas of coastal seas to marine renewable energy development is reigniting debates about marine governance, access and control over marine resources. Case studies in Scotland, Canada, New Zealand and Australia reveal a dynamic tension between: an economic development ‘blue growth’ agenda requiring the creation of private rights in the sea; and socio-political drivers which seek to address historic injustices and increase access to natural resources by indigenous and marginalised coastal communities. As yet there is little evidence of this tension being adequately addressed by emerging institutional frameworks for managing marine resources.     

地球-电离层空腔舒曼共振日变化特征分析

全球雷电活动在地球-电离层空腔中产生的极低频(ELF)信号干涉叠加,在一系列固定频率上产生舒曼共振(SR)。利用2012年5月以色列Mitzpe-Roman(MR)站ELF水平磁场资料,采用频谱变换、时间平均、分析了实测SR日变化信号的时域和频域特征。同时基于全球ELF传播模式,利用OTD/LIS雷电卫星资料模拟了5~30 Hz磁场功率谱日变化情况。结果表明:时域背景信号幅值的均值和偏差满足正态分布的期望和标准差;水平磁场前三阶SR谐振频率非常稳定,月平均下的谐振频率日变化相对8、14、20 Hz理论值的偏移量分别不超过0.3 Hz、0.55 Hz和0.6 Hz。东南亚和美洲地区雷电活动主要响应于南北磁场分量第一阶SR的07—09时和19—22时时段内。而东西磁场分量前三阶SR在12—15时时段内都对非洲地区雷电活动有指示作用。磁场功率谱日变化模拟结果与实测基本一致,表明利用单站正交磁天线的不同阶SR信号能够指示全球不同"热斑"区域的雷电活动。     

全球变暖减缓背景下欧亚秋冬温度变化特征和原因

采用气候序列变化趋势诊断和一元线性回归等分析法,研究和讨论了2000-2012年和1976-1999年两种年代际背景下全球陆地不同区域的年平均地表温度的变化特征。发现欧亚大陆中高纬度地区是对全球变暖减缓贡献最大的区域。且该地区在2000年以来秋季年代际增温,而冬季年代际降温。从同期大气环流的配置来看,在对流层低层,秋季西伯利亚高气压年代际减弱,而冬季西伯利亚高气压年代际增强。在对流层中高层,秋季从西欧至东北亚为"高-低-高"的高度场异常分布,纬向环流加强,经向环流减弱,而冬季极地与贝加尔湖地区的高度场呈偶极型分布,东亚大槽加深,经向环流加强。进一步研究发现,超前一个季节的喀拉海附近的海冰与欧亚中高纬度秋冬两季温度的年代际变率有着密切的联系。一方面,夏季(秋季)海冰减少影响秋季(冬季)中高纬度大气环流;另一方面,夏季(秋季)海冰减少,使得秋季(冬季)从北极至中高纬度大陆的对流层低层水汽含量增加(减少),大气逆辐射增强(减弱)导致秋季(冬季)增温(降温)。     

SD-WACCM模式对平流层化学组分的模拟研究

利用美国大气研究中心开发的全球气候模式,对2008年平流层的化学组分(HNO₃、HCl和O₃)进行了模拟研究,并结合了MLS卫星资料进行了对比分析。结果表明,模式可以较好地再现平流层的各化学组分的时空分布状况。并选取了8个区域,将模拟的2008—2009年O₃柱浓度与臭氧监测仪资料对比,结果表明,模式可以较好地再现全球O₃总量的季节变化情况。     

Orchestrating transnational environmental governance in maritime shipping

Maritime shipping is the transmission belt of the global economy. It is also a major contributor to global environmental change through its under-regulated air, water and land impacts. It is puzzling that shipping is a lagging sector as it has a well-established global regulatory body—the International Maritime Organization. Drawing on original empirical evidence and archival data, we introduce a four-factor framework to investigate two main questions: why is shipping lagging in its environmental governance; and what is the potential for the International Maritime Organization to orchestrate emerging private ‘green shipping’ initiatives to achieve better ecological outcomes? Contributing to transnational governance theory, we find that conditions stalling regulatory progress include low environmental issue visibility, poor interest alignment, a broadening scope of environmental issues, and growing regulatory fragmentation and uncertainty. The paper concludes with pragmatic recommendations for the International Maritime Organization to acknowledge the regulatory difficulties and seize the opportunity to orchestrate environmental progress.