An Overview of BCC Climate System Model Development and Application for Climate Change Studies

This paper reviews recent progress in the development of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC-CSM) and its four component models(atmosphere,land surface,ocean,and sea ice).Two recent versions are described:BCC-CSM1.1 with coarse resolution(approximately 2.8125°×2.8125°) and BCC-CSM1.1(m) with moderate resolution(approximately 1.125°×1.125°).Both versions are fully coupled climate-carbon cycle models that simulate the global terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycles and include dynamic vegetation.Both models well simulate the concentration and temporal evolution of atmospheric CO_2 during the 20th century with anthropogenic CO2 emissions prescribed.Simulations using these two versions of the BCC-CSM model have been contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase five(CMIP5) in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report(AR5).These simulations are available for use by both national and international communities for investigating global climate change and for future climate projections.Simulations of the 20th century climate using BCC-CSMl.l and BCC-CSMl.l(m) are presented and validated,with particular focus on the spatial pattern and seasonal evolution of precipitation and surface air temperature on global and continental scales.Simulations of climate during the last millennium and projections of climate change during the next century are also presented and discussed.Both BCC-CSMl.l and BCC-CSMl.l(m) perform well when compared with other CMIP5 models.Preliminary analyses indicate that the higher resolution in BCC-CSM1.1(m) improves the simulation of mean climate relative to BCC-CSMl.l,particularly on regional scales.     

含HCl四元水盐体系溶解度预测及其在工艺上的应用：Pitzer 混合参数对HCl-MgCl2-H2O体系25°C时溶解度预测的影响

计算了 HCl- Mg Cl2 - H2 O体系 2 5°C时溶解度以及 θHMg和 ΨHMg Cl各以± 10 %变动时 ,HCl- Mg Cl2 - H2 O体系 2 5°C时的溶解度变化。计算的结果表明 ,H和 Mg之间的两离子相互作用和 H,Mg和 Cl之间的三离子相互作用对体系中 Mg Cl2 的溶解度有极大的影响。在 HCl的浓度最大时 ,这两种相互作用近似相等。当这两种相互作用同时增加或同时减小时 ,体系的溶解度几乎不发生变化 ;但当一种作用增加 ,另一种作用减小时 ,体系的溶解度会发生根本变化。该结果为后续工作—— H+ ,L i+ ,Mg2 + /Cl- - H2 O四元体系 2 5°C时组分溶解度预测奠定了基础 ,大大减少了锂资源开发中的实验工作量     

我国航空客流网络发展及其地域系统研究

“极化”效应是高速交通网络引导客货流演进的空间表象,由此导致空间作用关系的变化和空间结构的演化。轴心—附属式的“轴—辐”空间模式已经成为航空客流网络发展的基本模式。本文以航空客流为分析对象,探讨了我国城市间的相互作用特征,以及高速运输网络发展的社会经济意义。结果表明,我国大陆航空客流的网络体系形成了明显的地域分异现象,产生了以三个一级枢纽为核心的“轴—辐”系统,即北京、广州和上海系统,以及两个相对独立的次级系统——乌鲁木齐和昆明系统;航空客流存在显著的距离衰减规律,绝大部分客流发生的距离在2400km之内;超大城市是航空客流的集聚地,以其为枢纽的航空网络的合理组织具有重大的社会经济意义     

全球最优插值客观分析

主要叙述国家气象中心实时运行的全球资料同化系统中的客观分析方案，该方案采用最优插值统计方法，使用所有可以使用的各种类型有不同误差的观测资料和模式的６ｈ预报值，给出数值形式的全球分析值。在两年的业务运行中，为Ｔ４２中期数值预报谱模式提供了较好的初始场。     

Microphysical Responses to Catalysis During a Stratocumulus Aircraft Seeding Experiment over the Sanjiangyuan Region of China

This study explores the microphysical responses to a cloud seeding operation in the Sanjiangyuan region, China. The cloud seeding was performed using a zigzag flight pattern, while the detection phase was accomplished using a back-and-forth flight pattern through the top of a stratocumulus layer. Global Position System（GPS） and Particle Measuring System（PMS） data obtained during the operation are used to determine the efective cloud area before and after the operation, diferentiate the phase states of cloud particles, and analyze changes in the concentrations of liquid cloud particles and ice crystals, the evolution of the cloud particle spectrum, and the content of supercooled water. The median diameter of liquid cloud particles in the area of the cloud-seeding operation was 3.5–18.5 μm, most cloud particles observed in the 21.5–45.5-μm size regime were ice crystals, while all particles of size 50 μm and above were in the ice phase. Changes in the concentration and typical diameter of cloud particles within 36 km downwind of the cloudseeding operation did not exceed natural fluctuations in the cloud area before the operation; however, the concentration of liquid cloud particles decreased substantially in areas with high concentrations of supercooled water（concentrations of supercooled water exceeding 0.01 g m 3）. The concentration of ice crystals within the measuring range of the Forward Scattering Spectrometer Probe（FSSP） increased substantially, the water content of ice-phase particles increased, and the average supercooled water content in the cloud decreased from（68.3± 23.1）% before the operation to（34.2± 12.4）%. The efects of cloud seeding were more pronounced in parts of the cloud where the content of supercooled water was higher. Little to no efects were observed in parts of the cloud with low concentrations of supercooled water.     

不同分辨率CCSM4对东亚和中国气候模拟能力分析

本文利用通用气候系统模式CCSM4在三种水平分辨率下的工业化革命前期气候模拟试验,结合观测和再分析资料,比较了各分辨率下模式对中国温度和降水、东亚海平面气压和850 hPa风场的模拟能力,综合评价了模式分辨率对东亚和中国气候模拟的影响.结果表明,三种分辨率对中国温度均具有很好的模拟能力,除春季外,低分辨率(T31,约3.75°×3.75°)对全年温度的模拟能力均要稍好于中(f19,约1.9°×2.5°)、高(f09,约0.9°×1.25°)分辨率;各分辨率对中国降水的模拟能力远不如温度,除冬季外全年都出现的中部地区虚假降水并未因为模式分辨率提高而得到本质改善;对于东亚海平面气压场,低分辨率在冬季模拟能力相对最好,中等分辨率在夏季相对较好,而高分辨率的模拟能力均表现最差;低分辨率对850 hPa东亚冬季风和夏季风的模拟能力均要好于中、高分辨率,而两种较高分辨率的模拟能力则比较接近.总的来说,低分辨率CCSM4在东亚和中国气候模拟中表现出了较大优势,加之其计算代价小,适合进行需要较长时间积分的气候模拟研究.     

Impact of Boundary-Layer Parameterisation Schemes on the Prediction of the Asian Summer Monsoon

The impact of two boundary-layer parameterisation schemes on the prediction of Indian monsoon systems by a global spectral model has been investigated. The turbulent kinetic energy closure scheme shows a positive impact on the prediction of some important synoptic features, including the genesis of monsoon lows, the tracking of monsoon depressions, and precipitation.     

GIS支持下基于支持向量机的滑坡危险性评价

以仙游县为例,探讨了将地理信息系统技术(GIS)和支持向量机(SVM)算法应用于滑坡灾害危险性评价的基本思路和技术路线。主要内容包括SVM的基本原理和方法、滑坡灾害危险性评价指标的选取和量化、SVM模型的建立以及具体的实现过程。实践证明该方法是一种较好的滑坡灾害危险性评价方法。     

国家级气象资料存储检索系统的建立

对国家级气象资料存储检索系统的需求进行了分析,进而对系统进行了功能设计,并在技术调研和分析的基础上确定了功能实现的技术路线：在数据管理方面采用数据库和文件系统相结合的方式;在存储管理方面采用分级存储管理模式,并解决了数据库的分级存储管理技术;在检索应用方面提供了程序调用式检索方式,并通过采用中间件技术实现了基于B/S结构的程序调用式检索;通过选用HPSS技术解决了由异种机型构成的高性能计算机群存储池问题;通过分别建立实时数据库和综合数据库解决了气象资料的规范化存储和实时业务使用需求之间的矛盾;在应用软件开发方面严格按照有关规范进行。     

全球地面降水月值历史数据集研制

全球降水历史数据是开展气候、水循环等研究的基础。收集整理全球12个数据源降水历史月值资料,通过站号、站名甄别不同数据源中相同台站,对344个通过相关系数、一致率、均值t检验、方差F检验的台站多源资料进行拼接,尽可能多地融合各套数据产品优势,最终形成全球降水历史月值数据集(CMA Global PrecipitationV1.0, CGP)。数据集重点解决当前国际数据产品在东亚地区站点稀少、同时应用多套数据应用门槛较高等问题。数据集收录3.1万个台站共计1.87×107组月降水记录, 4152个台站序列长度达百年。与美国大气海洋局(NOAA)的全球降水数据集(GHCN-M V2.0)对比,CGP新增1万个站点、0.5×107组有效观测记录和1030条百年序列,其中141条百年序列通过多源整合技术获取。CGP的站点和数据量优势主要体现在东亚、东欧、西伯利亚等站点稀疏地区。基于CGP分析的全球降水时空特征与国际同类产品的结果较一致。新增的数据虽然没有改变全球降水分布的总体特征,但对区域性的百年降水变化检测有一定影响。基于CGP的全球降水百年序列结果显示,20世纪前半叶全球降水量偏小,近20年是1900年以来全球降水量最大的时期,各纬度带、各个国家或地区的降水长期变化趋势呈现显著的差异。