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????????1966??????????????????????????????????????????????????Σ???????????CHAMP?????????????????????????????????????????? EIGEN-CHAMP03S??EIGEN-3P????????????г????????EIGEN-1S??EIGEN-2??EIGEN-3P??EIGEN-CHAMP03S????????????????????????????????????GRACE????????????????GGM02S??WHIGG-GEGM01S????????????????????????????????????????????????CHAMP??GRACE?????????????????????????????EIGEN-CG01C??EIGEN-CG03C??EIGEN-GL04S1??EIGEN-5C?????????????EIGEN-GRACE01S??EIGEN-GRACE02S??GGM01S??GGM02S??WHIGG-GEGM01S??GRACE-only????     

青藏高原GRACE卫星重力长期变化

本文采用最新的GRACE(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment)(RL05)数据,通过水文模型(Global Land Data Assimilation System,GLDAS与Climate Prediction Center,CPC)扣除土壤水及雪水的影响,利用Paulson提供的冰川模型结果扣除GIA(Glacial Isostatic Adjustment)的影响,采用尺度因子的方法减少数据处理过程中误差的影响,最终基于最小二乘计算方法得到2003—2013中国及周边地区长期性重力异常变化情况.结果发现青藏高原有较为明显的重力上升信号,我们认为该信号可能由印度板块俯冲欧亚板块导致青藏高原地壳增厚所引起.接着依据GPS观测结果和艾黎均衡假说构建了地壳形变模型并通过直立长方体模型予以正演模拟分析.以班公湖—怒江断裂带为界将青藏高原划分为南北两大区块,结果显示青藏高原重力异常大致以0.2μGal·a-1的速率在递增,小于GRACE得到的0.3±0.08μGal·a-1的增长速率(对应于地壳增厚速率约3mm·a-1),剩余未解释部分可能与湖水、冰川因素、冻土因素等有关.该结果对于认识青藏高原隆升动力学有一定参考意义.     

海潮误差对GRACE时变重力场解算的影响研究

海潮误差是GRACE时变重力场反演中重要的误差源,目前发布的海潮模型中主要包含振幅较大的主潮波分量模型,在时变重力场反演中次潮波的影响也是不可忽略的,因此,GRACE时变重力场反演中的海潮误差主要包括受限于海潮模型误差和次潮波影响.本文利用轨道模拟方法检测了短周期潮波的混频周期以及次潮波对ΔC20,ΔC30的时序特征,并进一步通过轨道模拟结果分析了海潮误差对时变重力场反演的影响,然后通过实测数据解算分析了海潮误差对当前GRACE时变重力场解算的影响,研究发现:(1)利用轨道模拟能够有效地检测短周期潮波的混频周期;(2)时变重力场解算过程中,次潮波的影响大于海潮模型误差的影响;(3)海潮模型误差以及次潮波影响是当前GRACE没有达到基准精度的重要因素之一.     

利用解析法有效快速估计将来GRACE Follow-On地球重力场的精度

本文首次利用解析法有效快速估计了将来GRACE（Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment） Follow-On地球重力场的精度. 第一,基于功率谱原理分别建立了新的GRACE Follow-On卫星激光干涉星间测量系统星间速度、GPS接收机轨道位置和轨道速度以及加速度计非保守力误差影响累计大地水准面的单独和联合解析误差模型. 第二,利用提出的GRACE卫星关键载荷匹配精度指标和美国喷气推进实验室（JPL）公布的GRACE Level 1B实测精度指标的一致性,以及估计的GRACE累计大地水准面精度和德国波兹坦地学研究中心（GFZ）公布的EIGEN-GRACE02S地球重力场模型实测精度的符合性,验证了本文建立的解析误差模型是可靠的. 第三,论证了GRACE Follow-On卫星不同关键载荷匹配精度指标和轨道高度对地球重力场精度的影响. 在360阶处,利用轨道高度250 km、星间距离50 km、星间速度误差1×10^-9m/s、轨道位置误差3×10^-5m、轨道速度误差3×10^-8m/s和非保守力误差3×10^-13m/s²,基于联合解析误差模型估计累计大地水准面的精度为1.231×10^-1 m. 本文的研究不仅为当前GRACE和将来GRACE Follow-On地球重力场精度的有效快速确定提供了理论基础和计算保证,同时对国际将来GRAIL（Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory）月球卫星重力测量计划的成功实施具有重要的参考意义.     

Laurentia crustal motion observed using TOPEX/POSEIDON radar altimetry over land

A new method to estimate the vertical crustal motion from satellite altimetry over land was developed. The method was tested around Hudson Bay, where the observed vertical motion is largely caused by the incomplete glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) as a result of the Laurentide ice sheet deglaciation since the last glacial maximum (LGM). Decadal (1992–2003) TOPEX/POSEIDON radar altimetry data over land surfaces were used. The results presented here are improved compared to a previous study (Lee, H., Shum, C.K., Kuo, C.Y., Yi, Y., Braun, A., 2008. Application of TOPEX altimetry for solid Earth deformation studies. Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci. 19, 37–46. doi:10.3319/TAO.2008.19.1-2.37(SA).) which estimated vertical motion only over relatively flat land surfaces (standard deviation of the height variation <40 cm). In this study, we extended the concept of traditional 1-Hz (one-per-frame) radar altimeter ocean stackfiles to build 10-Hz (10-per-frame) land stackfiles over Hudson Bay land regions, and succeeded in obtaining vertical motion estimates over much rougher surfaces (standard deviation of the height variation <2 m). 90-m C-band Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is used as a reference surface to select an optimal waveform retracker, to correct surface gradient errors, and to calculate land surface anomalies. Here, we developed an alternative retracker, called the modified threshold retracker, resulting in decadal vertical motion time series over a 1500 km by 1000 km region covering northern Ontario, northeastern Manitoba, and the Great Lakes region which is at the margin of the former Laurentide ice sheet. The average of the estimated uncertainties for the vertical motion is 2.9 mm/year which is comparable to 2.1 mm/year of recent GPS solutions. The estimated vertical motion is compared with other geodetic observations from GPS, tide gauge/altimetry, GRACE, and several GIA models. The data agree best with the laterally varying 3D GIA model, RF3S20 (β = 0.4) whereas the combination of land altimetry solution with other measurements match best with the models RF3S20 (β = 0.0) or RF3S20 (β = 0.2) in terms of mean and standard deviation of the differences. It is anticipated that this innovative technique could potentially be used to provide additional constraints for GIA model improvement, and be applied to other geodynamics studies.     

基于随机森林模型的GRACE数据3种空间降尺度对比

陆地水储量是赋存在陆地上各种形式水的综合体现,研究其时空变化对认识区域水循环过程和水资源调控等具有重要意义。然而现有陆地水储量变化数据实际分辨率较低,限制了其在中小流域或地区中的应用。针对这一问题,本文基于GRACE重力卫星和其后续卫星GRACE-FO反演的陆地水储量变化数据,首先采用随机森林模型,分别基于格点、区域(流域)和区域(全国)3种空间降尺度思路将GRACE数据降尺度至0.25°×0.25°,后结合GLDAS模型数据,基于水量平衡原理计算得到地下水储量变化数据,最后基于降尺度模型模拟效果和实测地下水位数据评估3种降尺度思路在全国的适用性。结果表明:随机森林模型能够较好地模拟驱动数据(降水、气温、植被条件指数和土壤水储量)与GRACE数据的统计关系,验证期格点降尺度思路的平均相关系数总体在0.6左右,区域降尺度思路的平均纳什效率系数、相关系数和均方根误差分别>0.5、>0.75和<6.6 cm,3种空间降尺度思路的模拟精度均满足基本要求;2003—2021年间,GRACE数据、格点降尺度、区域降尺度(流域)和区域降尺度(全国)得到的我国陆地水储量亏缺量分别约为...     

Global Freshwater Storage Capability across Time Scales in the GRACE Satellite Era

Freshwater is recharged mainly by rainfall and stored inland for a period of time, which is directly affected by its storage capability. The storage capability of river basins has different spatiotemporal features that are important for the predictability of freshwater resources. However, the estimation of freshwater storage capability(FSC) remains a challenge due to the lack of observations and quantification indices. Here, we use a metric that characterizes hydrological "inertia"after rainfalls to analyze FSC over the 194 largest global major river basins based on satellite observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment(GRACE) and simulations from the Community Land Model version 5(CLM5). During2003–16, the global land was observed to retain 28% of precipitation after one month based on GRACE observations, and the simulation depicts that the retained proportions decrease from 42% after one day to 26% after one month, with smaller FSC partly attributed to wetter conditions and higher vegetation densities. The root zone contributes about 40% to the global land FSC on daily to monthly time scales. As the time scale increases, the contribution from the surface soil decreases from 26% to 14%, while the contribution from the deep soil increases from 4% to 10%. Snow contributes over20% of land FSC, especially over high latitudes. With six decades of CLM5 long-term simulations, it is revealed that the change of FSC in most basins is related to internal climate variability. The FSC of river basins which displays the proportion of precipitation retained on land is worthy of further attention regarding the predictability of water resources.     

基于GRACE时变重力场的三峡水库补给水系水储量变化

利用22个月的GRACE时变重力场,反演了三峡水库补给水系的水储量变化,并按月给出了数值结果.与水文学同化模型（CPC）的两组比较说明基于GRACE重力的反演结果是合理的.当高斯平均半径为1000 km时,该区总水储量变化的峰谷差为14 cm,其年变化振幅为58 cm,相位为-408天,与CPC模型合成重力数据的反演结果进行比较,其总水储量变化均方差为13 cm,年变化振幅相差01 cm,相位相差10天.为进一步检验GRACE能否监测该区真实水储量变化,还将其反演结果与CPC模型的真实平均结果进行比较,结果发现总体均方差为21 cm,年变化振幅相差17 cm,相位相差93天.因此,第一种比较过高地估计了GRACE监测该区水储量变化的能力,第二种比较则较真实地反映了实际情况,尽管反演结果与水文学的结果差别较大,但仍然显示GRACE能监测该区每月的水储量变化.     

GRACE星体和SuperSTAR加速度计的质心调整精度对地球重力场精度的影响

本文利用改进的能量守恒法开展了GRACE星体和星载加速度计检验质量的不同质心调整精度影响地球重力场精度的模拟研究论证. 结果表明：第一,在120阶处,当质心调整精度设计为0 m,恢复累计大地水准面精度为17.616 cm;当质心调整精度分别设计为5×10^-5 m、1×10^-4 m和5×10^-4 m时,恢复精度各自降低至18.106 cm、19.033 cm和27.329 cm. 第二,以德国GFZ公布的EIGEN-GRACE02S地球重力场模型的实测累计大地水准面精度为标准,当质心调整精度设计为(5～10)×10^-5 m时,其和K波段星间测量系统、GPS接收机、SuperSTAR加速度计、恒星敏感器等GRACE核心载荷的精度指标相匹配,对地球重力场恢复精度的影响较小,因此建议我国将来研制的首颗重力卫星的星体和星载加速度计检验质量的质心调整精度设计为(5～10)×10^-5 m较优.     

金沙江流域实际蒸散发遥感重建及时空特征分析

通过构建基于重力卫星的实际蒸散发重建方法来获取高精度的实际蒸散发信息,为研究气候变化下的水循环规律提供关键信息。利用GLDAS陆面模式同化数据对GRACE重力卫星水储量观测数据进行空间降尺度,通过水量平衡法,重建了金沙江流域2002-2016年的子流域尺度实际蒸散发月序列。结果表明:①基于重力卫星观测与水量平衡方法重建的实际蒸散发（ET_Recon）与ET_PLSH、ET_Jung和ET_MODIS3种遥感反演产品相比有较高的可靠性,其中与ET_PLSH的相关性最高（r=0.82）,与ET_Jung的平均差和均方根差最小。②研究区年均实际蒸散发为410.8 mm/a,空间分布上由西北向东南递增,年际变化上呈增加趋势。③季节尺度上,实际蒸散发夏季最高,呈逐年增加趋势;冬季最低,波动较平稳。