2015年5月大气环流和天气分析

对2015年3—5月T639、ECMWF（文中简称EC）及日本数值模式中期预报产品进行了检验和对比。结果表明：三个模式对亚洲中高纬地区大尺度环流和850 hPa温度的演变和调整均具有较好的预报性能,EC模式对西风指数、850 hPa温度转折过程和变化幅度的预报略优于其他两个模式。对2015年3月31日至4月1日北方地区强沙尘暴天气过程的主要影响天气系统,三个模式预报能力相当,121 h时效都较好地预报出了地面冷高压,但强度和范围与实况有一定偏差。     

Geobiological interpretation of the oxygen-deficient deposits of the Middle Permian marine source rocks in South China:A working hypothesis

To decipher the origin of oxygen-deficient shelfal deposits is significant for tracing the distribution of marine source rocks and interpreting the evolution of depositional environment. The origin of the Middle Permian Chihsia Formation in South China remains a puzzle for long with its evident oxygen-deficient features but diverse benthos. This paper shows a typical Chihsian depositional rhythm composed of the massive and the laminated limestones with ecological and geochemical features. Massive bioclastic limestone from the rhythm was aerobic in paleoxygenation condition indicated by both the ecological and geochemical features. However, a contradictory oxygenation was inferred for the “laminated” counterpart from the rhythm, with the ecological signal being aerobic and the geochemical one being anoxic. The difference in ecological and geochemical indications was interpreted as the instability of paleoxygenation condition in shelf environments, caused by an enhanced paleoproductivity. Rhythmic occurrence of the oxygen-deficient condition might have been stemmed from paleo-Tethyan paleocurrents flowing across South China. __________ Translated from Earth Science—Journal of China University of Geosciences, 2007, 32(6): 789–796 [译自: 地球科学—中国地质大学学报]     

Blazar天体中光学射电大爆发的频谱演化

本文讨论Ｂｌａｚａｒ天体中光学射电大爆发频谱演化的理论模型．考虑沿喷流传播的相对论性激波所注入或加速的相对论性电子，受到康普顿、同步辐射和绝热膨胀三种损耗，并计及相对论电子能谱的高能截断．假定喷流轴线与观测者方向构成很小角度．文中给出了大爆发频谱三阶段连续演化的特性，即康普顿阶段，同步辐射阶段和绝热膨胀阶段的爆发特性．频谱演化用（Ｓｍ－ｖｍ）关系表达（见图２，图中Ｓｍ为频谱反转流量，ｖｍ为反转频率），它与一些Ｂｌａｚａｒ天体中观测到的典型形式相符合．     

Parameter and rating curve uncertainty propagation analysis of the SWAT model for two small Mediterranean catchments

Abstract

The SWAT model was tested to simulate the streamflow of two small Mediterranean catchments (the Vène and the Pallas) in southern France. Model calibration and prediction uncertainty were assessed simultaneously by using three different techniques (SUFI-2, GLUE and ParaSol). Initially, a sensitivity analysis was conducted using the LH-OAT method. Subsequent sensitive parameter calibration and SWAT prediction uncertainty were analysed by considering, firstly, deterministic discharge data (assuming no uncertainty in discharge data) and secondly, uncertainty in discharge data through the development of a methodology that accounts explicitly for error in the rating curve (the stage?discharge relationship). To efficiently compare the different uncertainty methods and the effect of the uncertainty of the rating curve on model prediction uncertainty, common criteria were set for the likelihood function, the threshold value and the number of simulations. The results show that model prediction uncertainty is not only case-study specific, but also depends on the selected uncertainty analysis technique. It was also found that the 95% model prediction uncertainty interval is wider and more successful at encompassing the observations when uncertainty in the discharge data is considered explicitly. The latter source of uncertainty adds additional uncertainty to the total model prediction uncertainty.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor D. Gerten

Citation Sellami, H., La Jeunesse, I., Benabdallah, S., and Vanclooster, M., 2013. Parameter and rating curve uncertainty propagation analysis of the SWAT model for two small Mediterranean watersheds. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (8), 1635?1657.     

集成Landsat OLI和机载LiDAR条带数据的亚热带森林生物量制图

以亚热带天然次生林为研究对象,借助一个条带的少量LiDAR点云数据和覆盖整个研究区的免费Landsat OLI多光谱数据,并结合地面实测数据,探索森林生物量低成本高精度制图方法。首先,提取了OLI和LiDAR特征变量,并与地上和地下生物量进行相关分析以筛选变量;然后,借助LiDAR数据覆盖区的样地和条带LiDAR数据构建"LiDAR生物量模型";再从LiDAR反演生物量的结果中进行采样,结合OLI特征变量构建"LiDAR-OLI模型";最后,与单独使用OLI多光谱数据建立的"OLI估算模型"结果进行比较,分析精度并验证新方法的效果。结果表明,"LiDAR-OLI模型"对地上和地下生物量的模型拟合效果较好且均优于"OLI模型",且其交叉验证的精度也较高并优于"OLI模型",从而证明了新方法的可靠性及有效性。本研究为主、被动遥感技术在中小尺度上协同反演森林参数提供了实验基础,也为基于全覆盖免费OLI多光谱数据及条带LiDAR数据的低成本森林生物量制图探索了技术路线。     

钟姑地区典型矿床的重磁找矿模式

钟姑地区位于宁芜中生代火山岩盆地南段,已发现有白象山铁矿等多个大型铁矿,是长江中下游成矿带以玢岩型铁矿为主的矿集区。本文以钟姑地区实测岩石物性参数为桥梁,以实测重磁数据为基础,分析了该区白象山铁矿、钟九铁矿和云楼铁矿的重磁场分布特征,并根据典型矿区已知地质条件,运用成熟的2.5D重磁联合反演技术进行计算,从定量角度认识铁矿体深部发育形态、位置与重磁异常之间对应关系,建立钟姑地区白象山铁矿等典型矿床的重磁找矿模式,为该区进一步找矿突破提供地球物理场信息。     

典型基坑开挖卸荷路径下软土三轴流变特性研究

模拟基坑开挖下的卸荷路径,进行了不同卸荷条件下包括围压、卸荷路径和排水的卸荷流变试验。试验结果表明：软土在竖向卸荷试验中的回弹变形可分为瞬时回弹变形和滞后回弹变形;在应力控制式三轴试验中,围压和轴压同时卸荷时的初始变形速率较大;仅卸轴压时回弹滞后效应明显,而围压、轴压同时卸荷时由于土体产生剪切变形引起负孔压,使土体回弹滞后效应不明显;在相同卸荷路径下,排水剪切时由于土体吸水膨胀使得流变特性更明显些,且产生的负孔压最终会消散。根据试验成果,建立Merchant流变模型参数与卸荷条件的线性函数关系,并将函数关系代入Merchant模型,最终得到能考虑围压及卸荷路径影响的软土卸荷流变经验模型。研究结果为软土流变变形模型研究及卸荷后基坑变形研究提供了参考。     

采空区二维超声波物理模型实验研究

由于对资源矿产的过度开采使得矿山地区(尤其是煤矿)出现了采空区,从而引起地表塌陷等地质灾害。为了深入了解地震方法在采空区调查中的应用效果,从超声波物理模型实验研究出发,论述了物理模型的原理和制作,研究了采空区的地震波场特征,并利用W inse is软件对所采集的二维超声波实验数据进行了处理。由叠偏剖面推断的采空区的位置与实际模型相符,从而验证了超声波采空区物理模型试验是有效的、可信的;同时可以为实际探测采空区提供进一步的理论依据。     

储层岩石流动电位的电化学影响因素

利用储层岩石的流动电位特性描述油藏的流动特性已引起地球物理领域的关注。依据多孔介质中的双电层模型与毛管电化学理论,建立了渗流场、离子流场和电流场的耦合关系,数值模拟了泥质砂岩储渗特性和电化学因素对流动电位耦合系数的影响。结果表明:当考虑储层岩石中存在浓差极化效应时,流动电位耦合系数的绝对值随溶液浓度、阳离子交换量、孔隙度和渗透率的增大而增大;浓差极化效应对流动电位具有放大作用。     

四一八队地勘院改革的意义

四一八队１９９２年下半年组建地勘院，实行单独核算，自负盈亏，定额上交，突破了计划经济体制下的地勘业运作方式，提高了职工闯市场、求效益的积极性，２年来上交大队２７２万元，为地勘业的改革建立了雏形。