基于恒速压汞技术研究页岩气储层孔隙结构:以湘西北地区五峰组页岩为例

页岩气储层孔隙结构是页岩气富集成藏、储层评价和优选有利区的关键参数,区分孔隙和喉道是表征页岩气储层孔隙结构的关键。本文选择4块具有不同渗透率的湘西北地区奥陶系五峰组页岩为研究对象,基于恒速压汞实验讨论孔隙和喉道的大小、分布特征及其相互关系以及与渗透率的联系。结果表明:具有不同渗透率的页岩样品表现为较为相近的孔径分布特征但差异较大的喉道分布特征。页岩样品渗透率的大小与孔隙半径没有明显相关关系;喉道大小及其分布特征是控制低渗储层孔隙结构的关键要素之一。渗透率较低页岩样品的喉道以喉道半径小且集中分布为特征,而渗透率较大页岩样品的喉道以喉道半径大呈分散分布但主要以大喉道为特征。喉道特征是研究页岩气储层储集空间和吸附能力的重要部分,在以后对页岩气的勘探开发中应特别注意及重视。     

GRAPES区域扰动预报模式动力框架设计及检验

设计了适用于四维变分同化系统的扰动预报模式GRAPES_PF。根据GRAPES的地形追随坐标非静力原始方程组,采用小扰动分离方法推导微分形式的线性扰动预报方程组,并利用与GRAPES非线性模式相似的数值求解方案求解线性扰动微分方程组。在设计扰动预报模式时采用了两个时间层半隐式半拉格朗日方案对动量方程、热力学方程、水汽方程和连续方程进行时间差分,空间差分方案的变量分布水平方向采用Arakawa C跳点网格,垂直方向采用Charney/Phillips跳层。利用代数消元法进一步推导得到只包含未来时刻扰动Exner气压的亥姆霍兹方程,进而通过广义共轭余差法(GCR)求解,在此基础上得到未来时刻扰动量的预报值。基于所开发的扰动模式开展了数值试验。首先在非线性模式中施加一个中尺度初始扰动高压,得到初始扰动在非线性模式中的后续演变,然后将相同的初始扰动作为扰动模式的初值进行时间积分,将扰动模式预报的结果与非线性模式的结果做了对比。结果表明,所开发的扰动模式GRAPES_PF较好地模拟了惯性重力内波的传播过程:初始高压扰动激发了一个迅速向外传播的惯性重力内波,...     

京津冀协同治理的回顾与前瞻

京津冀区域治理是伴随三地协作发展的进程,从政府层面的管制转向各利益主体协调治理,从自上而下的竞争合作转向上下结合的协同合作的一系列有效应对举措。经过30多年的努力,学界和政府部门已经形成了较为丰富的京津冀区域治理研究成果。通过梳理自1984年以来相关区域的研究,尝试从时空维度厘清京津冀区域治理的研究脉络及其变化,剖析目前京津冀区域治理所涉及的治理模式、协调体系、以及形成的发展策略,为改进和提高京津冀区域治理效果提供参考。京津冀协同治理过程是学术界与政府的互动融合过程,其中政府的作用居主导地位。未来将在治理主体、治理机制、治理效果评价和文化、医疗、养老等领域的协调发展方面得到深化和细化。     

结节区视角下江苏省区域空间结构演化研究——对区域共振轴结构模式的探讨

长时间序列的区域空间结构的演化规律, 一直是空间结构模式分析中的薄弱环节, 而历史过程的长时段分析, 有助于对区域空间结构现状研判和对未来优化提供科学支撑。本文从结节区的视角, 对江苏省域地区过去2800 年间发展轴线产生、发展、主导、跃迁的全过程进行系统解析。选取春秋、隋、元、今4 个时点作点-轴、双核型空间结构的横向比较, 认为存在4 个发展阶段:春秋至南北朝、隋至南宋、元至清、民国至今;其中, 元至清和民国至今阶段, 分别发现区域发展中存在双核共振轴、港城共振轴现象。共振轴结构模式指区域中心城市(或市区)轴与门户港城(或港口县域)轴及其交通链接所形成的一种空间结构现象, 存在于过渡型区域发展背景下的沿江与沿海区域。最后, 从城市职能的变迁、点-轴型发展轴的跃迁、现代交通线的布局、相邻区域(上海)4 方面对江苏省区域空间结构的演化机理进行分析。     

完全非线性波浪与二维固定结构物作用的IGN-BEM耦合分析模型

为高效准确地对完全非线性波浪与二维固定结构物的相互作用进行模拟分析,建立了二维完全非线性时域耦合模型。耦合模型将计算域划分为靠近结构物的内域和远离结构物的外域,每个区域均采用满足完全非线性自由水面边界条件的波浪模型进行求解。在内域使用Laplace方程描述流体运动并采用高阶边界元法（BEM）对其进行求解;而在没有结构物的外域,波浪运动的控制方程为Irrotational Green-Naghdi（IGN）方程并采用有限元法（FEM）对其进行求解。内域和外域通过一段重叠区域进行耦合,从而实现模型间变量的传递。首先利用耦合模型分别对规则波的传播、直墙前立波的生成以及相关物理模型试验进行模拟,数值结果与精确解和试验结果的良好吻合验证了耦合模型耦合方式的合理性以及处理非线性问题的准确性;然后使用耦合模型模拟分析了波浪与固定结构物间的相互作用,并将结果与线性解析解以及完全非线性BEM模型的结果进行了对比分析,进一步证明了耦合模型的正确性与高效性。     

Impacts of systematic precipitation bias on simulations of water and energy balances in Northwest America

At high latitudes and in mountainous areas, evaluation and validation of water and energy flux simu-lations are greatly affected by systematic precipitation errors. These errors mainly come from topographic effects and undercatch of precipitation gauges. In this study, the Land Dynamics （LAD） land surface model is used to investigate impacts of systematic precipitation bias from topography and wind-blowing on water and energy flux simulation in Northwest America. The results show that topographic and wind adjustment reduced bias of streamflow simulations when compared with observed streamflow at 14 basins. These systematic biases resulted in a -50%-100% bias for runoff simulations, a -20%-20% bias for evapotranspiration, and a -40%-40% bias for sensible heat flux, subject to different locations and adjustments, when compared with the control run. Uncertain gauge adjustment leads to a 25% uncertainty for precipitation, a 20% 100% uncertainty for runoff simulation, a less-than-10% uncertainty for evapotranspiration, and a less-than-20% uncertainty for sensible heat flux.     

三层模式背风波的理论研究

文中建立了一个背风波的三层理论模式 ;当三层Scorer参数在中层最大、高层次之、下层最小的情况下 ,利用该模式求得了背风波的理论波长及扰动的解析解 ,并对一个典型的个例计算了其背风波波长 ,并在此基础上分析了背风波波长对上、中、下三层Scorer参数变化的敏感性 ,结果表明波长对中层Scorer参数的变化比较敏感 ,对下层Scorer参数的大小和符号都不敏感 ,但在计算背风波波长时不能忽略下层的Scorer参数。     

The identifiability of parameters in a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland

The identifiability of model parameters of a steady state water quality model of the Biebrza River and the resulting variation in model results was examined by applying the Monte Carlo method which combines calibration, identifiability analysis, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The water quality model simulates the steady state concentration profiles of chloride, phosphate, ammonium, and nitrate as a function of distance along a river. The water quality model with the best combination of parameter values simulates the observed concentrations very well. However, the range of possible modelled concentrations obtained for other more or less equally eligible combinations of parameter values is rather wide. This range in model outcomes reflects possible errors in the model parameters. Discrepancies between the range in model outcomes and the validation data set are only caused by errors in model structure, or (measurement) errors in boundary conditions or input variables. In this sense the validation procedure is a test of model capability, where the effects of calibration errors are filtered out. It is concluded that, despite some slight deviations between model outcome and observations, the model is successful in simulating the spatial pattern of nutrient concentrations in the Biebrza River.     

20世纪南极菲尔德斯半岛毛皮海豹食谱比例变化的同位素混合模型比较分析

稳定同位素比值分析已成功用于示踪动物的食物来源研究,近年来已发展了多个同位素混合模型用于计算混合物中多来源物质的组成比例。本文以过去百年来南极菲尔德斯半岛南极毛皮海豹(Arctocephalus gazella)毛发的C、N同位素数据为基础,运用同位素混合模型中的欧几里得距离法、线性模型和贝叶斯模型进行计算、分析和比较,得到毛皮海豹食谱中南极磷虾(Euphausia superb)、南极电灯鱼(Electrona antarctica)和尼氏裸灯鱼(Gymnoscopelus nicholsi)所占比例随时间的变化趋势。各模型计算得出的结果可分为两组,分别是欧几里得距离法公式(1)和(2)的结果,表现为近百年来毛皮海豹食谱中Euphausia superb比例与其毛发稳定N同位素比值呈同步上升的趋势;第二组为欧几里得距离法公式(3)、线性模型和贝叶斯模型的结果,Euphausia superb比例与毛皮海豹毛稳定N同位素比值呈反相关关系。综合对比研究区域气候、海冰环境变化背景和已有的南极磷虾种群密度调查资料分析,第二组模型结果与实际情况较为相符,可用于讨论食物比例的时间变化趋势。近百年来,菲尔德斯半岛毛皮海豹食谱中Euphausia superb的比例显著下降,很可能是由于区域气候快速变暖和海冰的消退造成的。本文的计算结果指示西南极半岛气候变暖已显著影响到区域海洋食物链变化。     

A Zonal Pathway for NADW in the South Atlantic

Several large deployments of neutrally buoyant floats took place within the Antarctic Intermediate (AAIW), North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW), and the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) of the South Atlantic in the 1990s and a number of hydrographic sections were occupied as well. Here we use the spatially and temporally averaged velocities measured by these floats, combined with the hydrographic section data and various estimates of regional current transports from moored current meter arrays, to determine the circulation of the three major subthermocline water masses in a zonal strip across the South Atlantic between the latitudes of 19°S and 30°S. We concentrate on this region because the historical literature suggests that it is where the Deep Western Boundary Current containing NADW bifurcates. In support of this notion, we find that a net of about 5 Sv. of the 15–20 Sv that crosses 19°S does continue zonally eastward at least as far as the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Once across the ridge it takes a circuit to the north along the ridge flanks before returning to the south in the eastern half of the Angola Basin. The data suggest that the NADW then continues on into the Indian Ocean. This scheme is discussed in the context of distributions of dissolved oxygen, silicate and salinity. In spite of the many float-years of data that were collected in the region a surprising result is that their impact on the computed solutions is quite modest. Although the focus is on the NADW we also discuss the circulation for the AAIW and AABW layers.