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51.
This article presents the application of a multivariate prediction technique for predicting universal time (UT1–UTC), length of day (LOD) and the axial component of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM χ 3). The multivariate predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC are generated by means of the combination of (1) least-squares (LS) extrapolation of models for annual, semiannual, 18.6-year, 9.3-year oscillations and for the linear trend, and (2) multivariate autoregressive (MAR) stochastic prediction of LS residuals (LS + MAR). The MAR technique enables the use of the AAM χ 3 time-series as the explanatory variable for the computation of LOD or UT1–UTC predictions. In order to evaluate the performance of this approach, two other prediction schemes are also applied: (1) LS extrapolation, (2) combination of LS extrapolation and univariate autoregressive (AR) prediction of LS residuals (LS + AR). The multivariate predictions of AAM χ 3 data, however, are computed as a combination of the extrapolation of the LS model for annual and semiannual oscillations and the LS + MAR. The AAM χ 3 predictions are also compared with LS extrapolation and LS + AR prediction. It is shown that the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS + MAR taking into account the axial component of AAM are more accurate than the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS extrapolation or on LS + AR. In particular, the UT1–UTC predictions based on LS + MAR during El Niño/La Niña events exhibit considerably smaller prediction errors than those calculated by means of LS or LS + AR. The AAM χ 3 time-series is predicted using LS + MAR with higher accuracy than applying LS extrapolation itself in the case of medium-term predictions (up to 100 days in the future). However, the predictions of AAM χ 3 reveal the best accuracy for LS + AR.  相似文献   
52.
巩淑楠  吴善昌 《东北测绘》2008,31(1):162-164
简要分析了非量测数码相机哈苏H1D在南极中山站及拉斯曼丘陵地区所获取的影像数据的几何精度,阐明了利用该影像数据进行空中三角测量,DLG,DOM制作的技术流程及作业过程中出现问题的处理方法。  相似文献   
53.
Most of previous models suggest that the Central Asia Orogenic Belt grew southward in the Phanerozoic. However, in the Bayanhongor region in west-central Mongolia, volcanic arc, accretionary prism, ophiolite, and passive margin complexes accreted northeastward away from the Baydrag micro-continent, and hence the region constitutes the southwestern part of a crustal-scale syntaxis close to the west. The syntaxis should be original, because presumably reorientation due to strike-slip faulting can be ignored. It is reconfirmed that the Baydrag eventually collided with another micro-continent (the Hangai) to the northeast. A thick sedimentary basin developed along the southern passive margin of the Hangai micro-continent. This region is also characterized by an exhumed metamorphosed accretionary complex and a passive margin complex, which are both bounded by detachment faults as well as basal reverse faults which formed simultaneously as extrusion wedges. This part of the Central Asia Orogenic Belt lacks exhumed crystalline rocks as observed in the Himalayas and other major collisional orogenic belts. In addition, we identified two phases of deformation, which occurred at each phase of zonal accretion as D1 through Cambrian and Devonian, and a synchronous phase of final micro-continental collision of Devonian as D2. The pre-collisional ocean was wide enough to be characterized by a mid-ocean ridge and ocean islands. Two different structural trends of D1 and D2 are observed in accretionary complexes formed to the southwest of the late Cambrian mid-ocean ridge. That is, the relative plate motions on both sides of the mid-ocean ridge were different. Accretionary complexes and passive margin sediments to the northeast of the mid-ocean ridge also experienced two periods of deformation but show the same structural trend. Unmetamorphosed cover sediments on the accretionary prism and on the Hangai micro-continent experienced only the D2 event due to micro-continental collision. These unmetamorphosed sediments form the hanging walls of the detachment faults. Moreover, they were at least partly derived from an active volcanic arc formed at the margin of the Baydrag micro-continent.  相似文献   
54.
大泉水-白沙岘矿区位于甘肃省景泰县境内,在大地构造位置上处于北祁连加里东褶皱带东段,区内含煤地层为下石炭统靖远组和上石炭统羊虎沟组,属海陆交互相含煤沉积,根据岩性、岩相特征可划分为两个沉积旋回。该矿区主要可采煤层煤.层组赋存于羊虎沟组,厚1.71~9.00m,沿走向由西向东厚度变小,在大泉水井田可采厚度主要分布在V线以西,其东区段只是零星分布且不可采;在白沙岘井田煤层总厚度为2.99~5.15m,厚度变化小,属稳定煤层。煤:层组赋存于靖远组,仅分布在大泉水井田,厚1.33~8.88m,沿走向由西向东呈长透镜体状,西段和中段煤层发育较好.V线以东区段煤层变薄并出现无煤区。  相似文献   
55.
The accurate radiative transfer model GOMETRAN, initially designed to yield radiances at TOA in the wavelength range 240–790 nm, has been extended to allow for the computation of actinic fluxes down to 175 nm and for the calculation of photolysis frequencies in the atmosphere. The capability of the extended model PHOTOGT (PHOTOGOMETRAN) is demonstrated in a number of successful comparison studies both with recent experiments (ground-based, balloonborne, airborne) and model calculations of radiances, actinic fluxes and photolysis frequencies in the stratosphere and troposphere. In an atmospheric case study, the impact of new quantum yield data for the O3 » O2+O(1 d) photodissociation channel on the photolytic production of O(1 d) atoms in the lower atmosphere has been quantified.  相似文献   
56.
西江主洼是珠江口盆地一个低勘探程度洼陷,油气差异聚集特征明显,但其机理不清。本文在断陷盆地油气成藏理论指导下,利用研究区地质、地球物理和地球化学等资料,开展了烃源岩、断盖组合、储集体系和运聚模式等方面的研究。结果表明,裂陷期沉降、沉积中心有序迁移,造成主力烃源岩自东向西由文四段迁移至文三段、文一+二段,控制东、西部油气差异分布。恩平组区域性泥岩发育且晚期断裂缺乏,导致油气纵向上更易聚集于下构造层;区域泥岩减薄尖灭或晚期断裂切开盖层的区域,上构造层有一定油气分布。"源-汇"类型从宏观上控制储层优劣,影响下构造层油气富集程度;"仓储"运移是控制上构造层油气规模聚集的主要模式。下构造层古近系应作为重点部署方向,东部围绕文四段、西部围绕文三段、文一+二段烃源岩构成的含油气系统展开;上构造层勘探需关注珠海组,在隆起周边寻找具备"仓储"运移模式的有利区带。  相似文献   
57.
Diagenetic changes are difficult to distinguish from variations in sources of organic matter to sediments. Organic geochemical comparisons of samples of wood, bark, and needles from a white spruce (Picea glauca) living today and one buried for 10,000 years in lake sediments have been used to identify the effects of diagenesis on vascular plant matter. Important biogeochemical changes are evident in the aged spruce components, even though the cellular structures of the samples are well preserved. Concentrations of total fatty acids dramatically diminish; unsaturated and shorter chainlength components are preferentially lost from the molecular distributions. Concentrations of total alcohols are similar in the modern and 10,000-year-old wood and bark but markedly lowered in the aged needles. Hydrocarbon concentrations and distributions show little diagenetic change in the 10,000-year-old plant materials. Cellulose components in the wood decrease relative to lignin components, although both types of materials remain in high concentration in comparison to other organic components. Aromatization of abietic acid proceeds more rapidly in buried spruce wood than in bark; retene is the dominant polyaromatic hydrocarbon in the aged wood. In contrast to the variety of changes evident in molecular compositions, neither 13C values nor C/N ratios differ significantly in the bulk organic matter of modern and aged spruce components.  相似文献   
58.
The latitudinal variation of the photolysis frequency of ozone to O(1D) atoms, J(O1D), was measured using a filter radiometer during the cruise ANT VII/1 of the research vessel Polarstern in September/October 1988. The J(O1D) noon values exhibited a maximum of 3.6×10-5 s-1 (2 sr) at the equator and decreased strongly towards higher latitudes. J(O1D) reached highest values for clean marine background air with low aerosol load and almost cloudless sky. The J(O1D) data, measured under these conditions and a temperature of 295 K, can be expressed by: % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafiart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq-Jc9% vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0-yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr-x% fr-xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamOsaiaacI% cacaqGpbWaaWbaaSqabeaaiiaacqWF8baFaaGccaqGebGaaeykaiaa% bccacqWF9aqpcaqGGaGaaeyzaiaabIhacaqGWbGaaeiiaiaabUhacq% GHsislcaaI4aGaaiOlaiaaicdacaaIYaGaeyOeI0IaaGioaiaac6ca% caaI4aGaaiiEaiaaigdacaaIWaWaaWbaaSqabeaacqGHsislcaaIZa% aaaOGaaeiiaiaabIhacaqGGaGaam4uaiabgUcaRiaaiodacaGGUaGa% aGinaiaacIhacaaIXaGaaGimamaaCaaaleqabaGaeyOeI0IaaGOnaa% aakiaadofadaahaaWcbeqaaiaaikdaaaGccaGG9bGaaeikaiaaboha% daahaaWcbeqaaiabgkHiTiaaigdaaaGccaGGPaaaaa!5EE9!\[J({\text{O}}^| {\text{D) }} = {\text{ exp \{ }} - 8.02 - 8.8x10^{ - 3} {\text{ x }}S + 3.4x10^{ - 6} S^2 \} {\text{(s}}^{ - 1} )\] where S represents the product of the overhead ozone column (DU) and the secant of the solar zenith angle. The meridional profile of the primary OH radical production rate P(OH) was calculated from the J(O1D) measurements and simultaneously recorded O3 and H2O mixing ratios. While the latitudinal distribution of J(O1D) and water vapour was nearly symmetric to the equator, high tropospheric ozone levels up to 40 ppb were observed in the Southern Hemisphere, SH, resulting in higher P(OH) in the SH.  相似文献   
59.
预测陕西关中地区需水量的改进GM(1,1)模型   总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6  
需水量评价与预测是水资源规划与管理一项重要的研究内容。本文采用定额法计算需水量。通过对陕西关中地区需水量要素组成的分析,认为需水量要素属平稳时间序列,且一阶累加生成数据系列满足指数规律,符合灰色预测条件。为了提高GM(1,1)模型的精度,采用一种改变背景值的新方法,即:中心逼近方法。通过精度检验,中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型平均误差百分比、误差平方和分别比传统的GM(1,1)模型提高了0.147和1.579。用中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型预测需水量各要素近期和中长期值,经检验,其中非农业人口、农业人口、耕地面积、工业总产值预测模型满足一级模型,等级为良好。牲畜头数预测模型为不合格模型,分析其原因,主要是因为时间序列数据不完全符合指数规律。通过定额法计算,预计75%保证率时2005年和2010年关中地区工农业需水量分别占总需水量的92.21%和89.75%,生活需水量分别占7%和9.04%。  相似文献   
60.
The Guará and Botucatu formations comprise an 80 to 120 m thick continental succession that crops out on the western portion of the Rio Grande do Sul State (Southernmost Brazil). The Guará Formation (Upper Jurassic) displays a well-defined facies shift along its outcrop belt. On its northern portion it is characterised by coarse-grained to conglomeratic sandstones with trough and planar cross-bedding, as well as low-angle lamination, which are interpreted to represent braided river deposits. Southwards these fluvial facies thin out and interfinger with fine- to medium-grained sandstones with large-scale cross-stratification and horizontal lamination, interpreted as eolian dune and eolian sand sheets deposits, respectively. The Botucatu Formation is characterised by large-scale cross-strata formed by successive climbing of eolian dunes, without interdune and/or fluvial accumulation (dry eolian system). The contact between the Guará and the Botucatu formations is delineated by a basin-wide deflation surface (supersurface). The abrupt change in the depositional conditions that took place across this supersurface suggests a major climate change, from semi-arid (Upper Jurassic) to hyper-arid (Lower Cretaceous) conditions. A rearrangement of the Paraná Basin depocenters is contemporaneous to this climate change, which seems to have changed from a more restrict accumulation area in the Guará Formation to a wider sedimentary context in the Botucatu Formation.  相似文献   
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