基于随机森林模型的农业电子商务浅析——洛川苹果网络销售问题与对策

随着互联网产业的飞速发展,电子商务开始进入农业领域。以电子商务起步较早的"洛川苹果"作为研究对象进行调研。基于随机森林模型的决策树集成算法,对农业网络销售体系整体进行数据分析,模型构建,从问题表象出发挖掘其在不同部分的影响因子,最终基于影响因素解决问题,提出合理化建议:加强农村基础设施建设、健全农村公共服务体系以及完善农村电子商务培训制度等,因地制宜,推进农业电子商务的健康发展。     

火灾下轴压钢柱破坏的判断准则分析

介绍了火灾下轴压钢柱的破坏准则。利用数值分析的方法,根据不同的破坏准则计算火灾下轴压钢柱的临界温度。火灾下钢材的力学性能分别参照EC3和CECS选取。通过对临界温度计算结果的对比分析,发现：①2个变形准则给出的结果基本相同,但以变形准则为判断依据往往会高估构件的临界温度;②应用变形准则需具备一定条件,即火灾下构件的破坏形式为整体失稳或截面强度破坏,若构件发生局部屈曲,变形准则不适用;③同一破坏准则下,火灾下钢材性能分别按照EC3和CECS选取,临界温度计算结果相差超过200℃。最后,给出临界温度设计曲线的上、下限,以方便工程应用。     

Slopewash,surface runoff and fine-litter transport in forest and landslide scars in humid-tropical steeplands,luquillo experimental forest,Puerto Rico

Rainfall, slopewash (the erosion of soil particles), surface runoff and fine-litter transport steepland sites in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico (18° 20’ N, 65° 45’ W) were measured from 1991 to 1995. Hillslopes underlain by (1) Cretaceous tuffaceous sandstone and silstone in subtropical rain (tanonuco) forest with vegetation recovering from Hurricane Hugo (1989), and (2) Tertiary quartz diorite in subtropical lower mantone wet (colorado and dwarf) forest with undisturbed forest canopy were compared to recent landslide scars. Monthly surface runoff on these very steep hillslopes (24° to 43°) was only 0·2 to 0·5 per cent of monthly rainfall. Slopewash was higher in sandy loam soils whose parent material is quartz diorite (averaging 46 g m⁻² a⁻¹) than in silty clay loam soils derived from tuffaceous sandstone and siltstone where the average was 9 g m⁻² a⁻¹. Annual slopewash of 100 to 349 g m⁻² on the surfaces of two recent, small landslide scars was measured initially but slopewash decreased to only 3 to 4 g m⁻² a⁻¹ by the end of the study. The mean annual mass of fine litter (mainly leaves and twigs) transported downslope at the forested sites ranged from 5 to 8 g m⁻² and was lower at the tabonuco forest site, where post-Hurricane Hugo recovery is still in progress. Mean annual fine-litter transport was 2·5 g m⁻² on the two landslide scars. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of wildfire on runoff and erosion in native Eucalyptus forest

Wildfires raise concerns over the risk of accelerated erosion as a result of increased overland flow and decreased protection of the soil by litter and ground vegetation cover. We investigated these issues following the 1994 fires that burnt large areas of native Eucalyptus forest surrounding Sydney, Australia. A review of previous studies identifies the fire and rainfall conditions that are likely to lead to increased runoff and accelerated erosion. We then compare runoff and erosion between burnt and unburnt sites for 10 months after the 1994 fires. At the scale of hillslope plots, the 1994 fire increased runoff by enhancing soil hydrophobicity, and greatly increased sediment transport, mainly through the reduced ground cover, which lowered substantially the threshold for initial sediment movement. However, both runoff and sediment transport were very localized, resulting in little runoff or sediment yield after the fire at the hillslope catchment scale. We identify that after moderately intense fires, rainfall events of greater than one year recurrence interval are required to generate substantial runoff and sediment yield. Such events did not occur during the monitoring period. Past work shows that mild burns have little effect on erosion, and it is only after the most extreme fires that erosion is produced from small, frequent storms. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Changes in overland flow and infiltration after a rangeland fire in a Mediterranean scrubland

Changes in overland flow and infiltration after a wildfire (summer 1989) in a typical Mediterranean scrubland were measured during the winters of 1990, 1991, 1992 and 1995 by means of simulated rainfall. Infiltration increases gradually from 1990 (sixth months after the forest fire) to 1995 (five and a half years after the forest fire). Overland flow decreases from 45% of rainfall after the forest fire to less than 6% five and a half years later. The reduction in overland flow was greatest in the first two years after the fire because of the quick recovery of vegetation. The steady-state infiltration capacity increased every year after the fire. Runoff and infiltration changes are mainly determined by the gradual recovery of vegetation. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

卫星遥感火点监测应用和研究进展

卫星遥感在自然灾害管理和应对中发挥了越来越多的作用。火点遥感在火灾频发的时候也被寄予厚望。梳理了火山、环境、气候、火灾等方面对火点遥感的需求,中国火灾监测的行业用户对时空分辨率需求迫切程度不同;概述了用于火点遥感监测的卫星数据源特点,光谱维度上以热红外敏感波段最重要,卫星轨道特点也是影响火点遥感监测能力重要因素;在分析火点遥感物理原理和方法的基础上,综述了当前火点遥感方法的研究进展及优缺点。按照火灾发生的灾前、灾中、灾后3个阶段,分别讨论了当前火点遥感提供信息支撑的能力。火点遥感用于发现火灾仍需要与地面监测等手段联合使用。     

1998-2012年青藏高原TRMM 3B43降水数据的校准

运用1998-2012年青藏高原的TRMM 3B43降水数据以及气象台站实测降水数据,对比分析了青藏高原地区TRMM 3B43降水数据偏差分布规律。结果表明:(1) TRMM 3B43降水数据在青藏高原地区存在明显误差,特别是降水量大的地区和月份,偏差量较大。(2)青藏高原地区TRMM 3B43降水数据偏差分布与海拔、经纬度、降水量存在密切的关系。用偏差分布规律,加法修正法结合随机森林算法对青藏高原地区TRMM 3B43降水数据进行了校准。经过校准之后,数据精度得到显著提高,有效增加了数据的可用性,多年月平均数据决定系数R²最大可达到0.9(3、10月),最小也接近于0.5(12月),效率系数E均为正值,最大可达到90(3、10月);多年季平均和多年平均降水数据中除了第一季度结果稍差外(决定系数R²为0.58),其余数据校准效果均较好。     

云南石林地区土壤侵蚀的石笋记录与现代观测

通过研究云南乃古石林地区的洞穴沉积物———石笋,结合土壤侵蚀观测结果,发现石笋中的每一个夹泥层代表一次地表快速剥蚀事件,进而讨论了土壤侵蚀事件在石林发育过程中的意义。结果表明:石林发育的自然过程之一是土体较长时期稳定、实现土下溶蚀,协同土壤阶段性的快速剥蚀过程,脉动式相对向上“生长”。石林地区全新世曾经历过数次快速剥蚀过程。     

森林冠层和森林边界层大涡模拟

在采用各向异性湍流动能闭合方案和3阶Runge Kutta时间积分方案的大涡模式中,引入由森林冠层粗糙元造成的动量拖曳项、热量输入项和TKE耗散项,以模拟森林冠层和森林边界层的气象场. 通过中性和不稳定层结条件下不同叶面积指数算例的模拟分析及与已有观测结果的比较表明,本文所建大涡模式对森林冠层和森林边界层有较好的模拟效果. 进一步研究表明：不稳定层结条件下较稠密的森林冠层中特有的Kinking & Pairing湍涡结构与森林边界层中湍流的大涡运动相互作用,形成了森林冠层附近的温度斜坡型结构.     

谈遥感和计算机技术在城市消防规划中的应用

介绍了城市消防规划的编制方法,同时分析其规划编制中的缺陷,提出了利用遥感和计算机手段进行城市消防规划的方法,并对遥感技术进行了简要介绍。