Reduced complexity strategies for modelling urban floodplain inundation

Significant advances in flood inundation modelling have been made in the last decade through the use of a new generation of 2D hydraulic numerical models. These offer the potential to predict the local pattern and timing of flood depth and velocity, enabling informed flood risk zoning and improved emergency planning. With the availability of high resolution DEMs derived from airborne lidar, these models can theoretically now be routinely parameterized to represent considerable topographic complexity, even in urban areas where the potential exists to represent flows at the scale of individual buildings. Currently, however, computational constraints on conventional finite element and volume codes typically require model discretization at scales well below those achievable with lidar and are thus unable to make optimal use of this emerging data stream.In this paper we review two strategies that attempt to address this mismatch between model and data resolution in an effort to improve urban flood forecasts. The first of these strives for a solution by simplifying the mathematical formulation of the numerical model by using a computationally efficient 2D raster storage cell approach coupled to a 1D channel model. This parsimonious model structure enables simulations over large model domains offering the opportunity to employ a topographic discretization strategy which explicitly represents the built environment. The second approach seeks to further reduce the computational overhead of this raster method by employing a subgrid parameterization to represent the effect of buildings and micro-relief on flow pathways and floodplain storage. This multi-scale methodology enables highly efficient model applications at coarse spatial resolutions while retaining information about the complex geometry of the built environment.These two strategies are evaluated through numerical experiments designed to reconstruct a flood in the small town of Linton in southern England, which occurred in response to a 1 in 250 year rainfall event in October 2001. Results from both approaches are encouraging, with the spatial pattern of inundation and flood wave propagation matching observations well. Both show significant advantages over a coarse resolution model without subgrid parameterisation, particularly in terms of their ability to reproduce both hydrograph and inundation depth measurements simultaneously, without need for recalibration. The subgrid parameterization is shown to achieve this without contributing significant computational complexity and reduces model run-times by an order of magnitude.     

Siderophile and chalcophile metal variations in Tertiary picrites and basalts from West Greenland with implications for the sulphide saturation history of continental flood basalt magmas

Sixty-five million year old continental flood basalts crop out on Qeqertarssuaq Island and the Nuussuaq Peninsula in West Greenland, and they include ～1,000 m of picritic lavas and discrete 10- to 50-m-thick members of highly contaminated basalts. On Qeqertarssuaq, the lavas are allocated to the Vaîgat and Maligât Formations of which the former includes the Naujánguit member, which consists of picrites with 7–29 wt% MgO, 80–1,400 ppm Ni, 5.7–9.4 ppb Pt and 4.2–12.9 ppb Pd. The Naujánguit member contains two horizons of contaminated basalts, the Asûk and Kûgánguaq, which have elevated SiO2 (52–58 wt%) and low to moderate MgO (7.5–12.8 wt%). These lavas are broadly characterized by low Cu and Ni abundances (average, 40 ppm Ni and 45 ppm Cu) and very low Pt (0.16–0.63 ppb) and Pd (0.13–0.68 ppb) abundances, and in the case of the Asûk, they contain shale xenoliths and droplets of native iron and troilite. The contaminated basalts from Nuussuaq, the B0 to B4 members, are also usually Ni-, Cu-, and platinum-group elements (PGE)-depleted. The geochemical signatures (especially the ratios of incompatible trace elements such as Th/Nb) of all of the contaminated basalts from Qeqertarssuaq and some of those from Nuussuaq record what appears to be a chemical contribution from deltaic shales that lie immediately below the lavas. This suggests that the contamination of the magmas occurred during the migration of the magmas through plumbing systems developed in sedimentary rocks, and hence, at a high crustal level. Nickel, Cu, and PGE depletion together with geochemical signatures produced by crustal contamination are also a feature of Siberian Trap basalts from the Noril’sk region. These basalts belong to the 0- to 500-m thick, ～5,000- to 10,000-km³ Nadezhdinsky Formation, which is centered in the Noril’sk Region. A major difference between Siberia and West Greenland is that PGE depletion in the Nadezhdinsky Formation samples with the lowest Cu and Ni contents is much more severe than that of the West Greenland contaminated basalts. Moreover, the volumes of the contaminated and metal-depleted volcanic rocks in West Greenland pale is significant when compared to the Nadezhdinsky Formation; local centers rarely contain more than 15 thin flows with a combined thickness of <50 m and more typically 10–20 m, so the volume of the eruptive portions of each system is probably two orders of magnitude smaller than the Nadezhdinsky edifice. The West Greenland centres are juxtaposed along fault zones that appear to be linked to the subsidence of the Tertiary delta, and so emplacement along N–S structures appears to be a principal control on the distribution of lavas and feeder intrusions. This leads us to suggest that the Greenland system is small and segregation of sulphide took place at high levels in the crust, whereas at Noril’sk, the saturation event took place at depth with subsequent emplacement of sulphide-bearing magmas into high levels of the crust. As a consequence, it may be unreasonable to expect that the West Greenland flood basalts experienced mineralizing processes on the scale of the Noril’sk system.     

Application of bivariate extreme value distribution to flood frequency analysis: a case study of Northwestern Mexico

In Mexico, poverty has forced people to live almost on the water of rivers. This situation along with the occurrence of floods is a serious problem for the local governments. In order to protect their lives and goods, it is very important to account with a mathematical tool that may reduce the uncertainties in computing the design events for different return periods. In this paper, the Logistic model for bivariate extreme value distribution with Weibull-2 and Mixed Weibull marginals is proposed for the case of flood frequency analysis. A procedure to estimate their parameters based on the maximum likelihood method is developed. A region in Northwestern Mexico with 16 gauging stations has been selected to apply the model and regional at-site quantiles were estimated. A significant improvement occurs, measured through the use of a goodness-of-fit test, when parameters are estimated using the bivariate distribution instead of its univariate counterpart. Results suggest that it is very important to consider the Mixed Weibull distribution and its bivariate option when analyzing floods generated by a␣mixture of two populations.     

STRUCTURE AND COMPOSITION OF A WATERSHED-SCALE SEDIMENT INFORMATION NETWORK

A "Watershed-Scale Sediment Information Network" (WaSSIN), designed to complement UNESCO’s International Sedimentation Initiative, was endorsed as an initial project by the World Association for Sedimentation and Erosion Research. WaSSIN is to address global fluvial-sediment information needs through a network approach based on consistent protocols for the collection, analysis, and storage of fluvial-sediment and ancillary information at smaller spatial scales than those of the International Sedimentation Initiative. As a second step of implementation, it is proposed herein that the WaSSIN have a general structure of two components, (1) monitoring and data acquisition and (2) research. Monitoring is to be conducted in small watersheds, each of which has an established database for discharge of water and suspended sediment and possibly for bed load, bed material, and bed topography. Ideally, documented protocols have been used for collecting, analyzing, storing, and sharing the derivative data. The research component is to continue the collection and interpretation of data, to compare those data among candidate watersheds, and to determine gradients of fluxes and processes among the selected watersheds. To define gradients and evaluate processes, the initial watersheds will have several common attributes. Watersheds of the first group will be: (1) six to ten in number, (2) less than 1000 km2 in area, (3) generally in mid-latitudes of continents, and (4) of semiarid climate. Potential candidate watersheds presently include the Weany Creek Basin, northeastern Australia, the Zhi Fanggou catchment, northern China, the Eshtemoa Watershed, southern Israel, the Metsemotlhaba River Basin, Botswana, the Aiuaba Experimental Basin, Brazil, and the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed, southwestern United States.     

EM Monitoring of Crustal Processes Including the Use of the Network-MT Observations

There are several kinds of coupling mechanisms which can convert mechanical, chemical or thermal energies due to seismic or volcanic activities into electromagnetic energies. As a result of concentrated efforts in laboratory and theoretical research, the basic relationship between the intensity of electromagnetic sources and changes in mechanical, chemical and thermal state is becoming established. Also with the progress of the electromagnetic simulation techniques, it has been possible to evaluate in situ sensitivity. Based on this progress and also due to extensive improvement in measuring techniques, many field experiments have been performed to elucidate subsurface geophysical processes underlying the preparation stage, onset, and subsequent healing stage of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. In volcanic studies, many studies have reported the measurement of electromagnetic signals which were successfully interpreted in terms of various driving mechanisms. Although there have been numerous reports about the existence of precursory electromagnetic signals in seismic studies, only a few of them could be successfully explained by the proposed mechanisms, whereas coseismic phenomena are often consistent with those mechanisms including the absence of detectable signals. In many cases, one or two orders of higher sensitivity were required, especially for precursory signals. Generally, electromagnetic methods are more sensitive to near-surface phenomena. It will be necessary to discriminate electromagnetic signals due to these near-surface sources, which often possess no relationship with the crustal activities. Further efforts to enhance in situ sensitivity through improvements in observation techniques and in data processing techniques are recommended. At the same time, multi-disciplinary confirmation against the validity of electromagnetic phenomena will inevitably be necessary. A Network-MT observation technique has been developed to determine large-scale deep electrical conductivity structure. In the method, a telephone line network or purpose-built long baseline cables are utilized to measure voltage differences with long electrode separations. Because of the averaging effect of the electric fields, static shift problems due to small-scale, near-surface lateral heterogeneities can be alleviated. Several field experiments revealed regional scale deep electrical conductivity structures related to slab subduction or its stagnation, which enable us to elucidate underlying physical processes caused by the slab motion. The technique can also be applied to monitor the electric potential field related to crustal activities. The annual variation of the potential field and electrical conductivity in the French Alps were interpreted to be caused by the annual variation of lake water level. The method was also used to monitor the regional scale spatio-temporal variation of the SP field and electrical conductivity before and at the onset of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.     

Mapping and initial dilution estimation of an ocean outfall plume using an autonomous underwater vehicle

A monitoring mission to study the shape and estimate initial dilution of the S. Jacinto outfall plume using an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) was performed on July 30, 2002. In order to reduce the uncertainty about plume location and to concentrate the vehicle mission only in the hydrodynamic mixing zone, outputs of a near-field prediction model, based on effective real-time in situ measurements of current speed and direction and density stratification, were opportunistically used to specify in real time the mission transects. The surface characteristics of the outfall plume were found to be influenced strongly by the relatively weak stratification and low current velocities. Dilution was estimated using a temperature–salinity (TS-) diagram with initial mixing lines between wastewater and ambient waters. Effluent dilutions were at least 30:1 in this study. In order to efficiently map the plume dispersion we applied the least-squares collocation method technique. Our results demonstrate that AUVs can provide high-quality measurements of physical properties of effluent plumes in a quite effective manner and valuable considerations about the initial mixing processes under real oceanic conditions can be further investigated.     

Peak runoff contributing area as hydrological signature of the probability distribution of floods

For the analysis of hydrological extremes and particularly in flood prediction, deeper investigation is needed on the relative effects of different hydrological processes acting at the basin scale in different hydroclimatic areas of the world. In this framework, the theoretical derivation of flood distribution shows a great potential for development and knowledge advancement. In addition, another promising path of investigation is represented by the use of distributed hydrological models via simulation modelling (including Monte Carlo, discrete event and continuous simulation). In this paper results of a theoretically derived flood frequency distribution are analyzed and compared with the results of a simulation scheme that uses a distributed hydrological model (DREAM) in cascade with a rainfall generator (IRP). The numerical simulation allows the reproduction of a large number of extreme events and provides insight into the main control for flood generation mechanisms with particular emphasis to the peak runoff contributing areas, highlighting the relevance of soil texture and morphology in different climatic environments. The proposed methodology is applied here to the Agri and the Bradano basin, in Southern Italy.     

基于GPS技术的大型结构建筑物动态监测

在回顾传统的结构物震动和位移测量方法的基础上，详细阐述了采用GPS进行大型建筑物动态监测的原理、方法。介绍国内外典型的动态监测实例，提出了监测数据的管理与可视化方案，对未来大型结构建筑物动态监测的技术进行了展望。     

一种改进我国汛期降水预测的新思路

1998年1月赤道东太平洋海温为正异常、1月黑潮－西风漂流区海温为负异常、青藏高原冬春积雪为正异常。通过对1998年汛期降水的预测实践分析研究指出，当此三因子同时异常时，利用其中任何一个单因子都难以较好地同时预测出1998年发生在我国长江中下游和东北嫩江流域的多雨区和华北平原的少雨区。而通过EOF分解和动力模式对三因子异常进行综合集成所作的预测和实况基本一致。对多因子异常的综合集成是改进和提高汛期降水预测水平的有效手段，沿着这一新思路，利用EOF筛选出前明显异常的重要因子，选择一个较好的区域气候模式，有希望通过综合集成作出比较可信的预报。     

河南省汛期气候预测概念模型

在河南省6种雨型的基础上，分析了物理要素海温、季风、西太平洋副高及气候因子和河南省汛期降水的关系，给出了河南省汛期降水的气候预测概念模型。通过逻辑推理，可以具体预测雨型。