Observations of desert flood bores

Flood bores have been measured in desert stream floods. The bores were steep and small pebbles were observed to be pushed ahead. Bore velocity changed downstream and was controlled by local channel geometry. In narrow reaches, the bore advanced at rates twice those of wide reaches. Mean bore velocity was about 50 per cent of that of mean flow at peak flood discharge. The surfaces of shallow bores were covered by air foams. This was not the case in deeper, faster examples.     

Entropy estimation of hydrological extremes

The method of Relative Entropy with Fractile constraints (REF method) is explained and applied to model extreme compound hydrological phenomena, such as extreme sea levels under storm conditions. Also presented is a simple method of Tail Entropy Approximation (TEA), which amounts to a correction of traditional statistical estimates for extreme observations.Distribution assumptions are necessary but downplayed in the REF method, relegating the prior distribution to the role of an extrapolation function. The estimates are objective in an information-theoretical sense. They also satisfy a strict requirement of self-consistency that is generally not satisfied by standard statistical methods: invariance under monotonic transformations of the random variable.Historical records of storm surge levels in the Netherlands and annual maximum tidal heights for Sheerness, UK, are used as examples. Comparison is made with distributions obtained using other methods.It is concluded that the tail entropy approximation provides simple, objective estimates of extremes in the tail beyond the range of observations.     

运用人工神经网络作汛期降水预报

本文提出汛期降水预报的人工神经网络方法，并选择一组标样进行了具体分析，预报成功率达100％，结果表明，该方法性能良好，可望成为汛期降水预报的有效手段。     

位移时空综合分析法及其在深基坑中的应用

对于岩土工程设计和施工来说,如何对监测所获的位移信息进行分析十分重要。以往主要采用位移-时间的分析方法。但为了使信息在修改设计和指导施工方面起更大作用,本文提出位移空间比较分析法,并主张与常用的位移-时间分析方法结合使用,以形成所谓位移时空综合分析法。在济南彩云大厦深基坑等的成功应用,表明该法是可行的。     

五强溪水电站左岸船闸边坡开挖监控设计的理论与实践

五强溪水电站船闸左岸边坡，是由前震旦系的Ｐｔ１（主要为千枚状板岩）和Ｐｔ２（主要为砂岩、板岩）组成。因断层穿插，岩体破碎，边坡稳定性很差。为确保边坡在开挖施工期的安全，作者根据工程地质力学和系统科学相结合的方法，对之进行监控设计，取得了成功。     

Cloud tracking using satellite data for predicting the probability of heavy rainfall events in the Mediterranean area

The use of cloud tracking techniques and storm identification procedures is proposed in this paper with the aim of predicting the evolution of cloud entities associated with the highest rainfall probability within a given meteorological scenario. Suitable algorithms for this kind of analysis are based on the processing of digital images in the thermal infrared (IR) band from geostationary satellites: a selection of such algorithms is described in some detail together with a few real case applications. Three heavy rainfall events have been selected for this purpose with reference to the extreme meteorological situation observed during Fall 1992 and 1993 over the Mediterranean area. A window from 30 to 60 °N and from 20 °W to 30 °E has been identified for the analysis of data from the radiometer on board the ESA Meteosat platform. In conclusion, the suitability of cloud tracking techniques for predicting the probability of heavy rainfall events is discussed provided that the former are associated with proper modeling of small scale rainfall distribution.     

Appraisal of regional and index flood quantile estimators

Our results illustrate the performance of at-site and regional GEV/PWM flood quantile estimators in regions with different coefficients of variation, degrees of regional heterogeneity, record lengths, and number of sites. Analytic approximations of bias and variance are employed. For realistic GEV distributions and short records, the index-flood quantile estimator performs better than a 2-parameter GEV/PWM quantile estimator with a regional shape parameter, or a 3-parameter at-site GEV/PWM quantile estimator, in both humid and especially in arid regions, as long as the degree of regional heterogeneity is moderate. As regional heterogeneity or record lengths increases, 2-parameter estimators quickly dominate. Flood frequency models that assign probabilities larger than 2% to negative flows are unrealistic; experiments employing such distributions provide questionable results. This appraisal generally demonstrates the value of regionalizing estimators of the shape of a flood distribution, and sometimes the coefficient of variation.     

Channel morphology and its impact on flood passage, the Tianjiazhen reach of the middle Yangtze River

The Tianjiazhen reach of the middle Yangtze is about 8 km long, and characterized by a narrow river width of 650 m and local water depth of > 90 m in deep inner troughs, of which about 60 m is below the mean sea level. The troughs in the channel of such a large river are associated with regional tectonics and local lithology. The channel configuration plays a critical role in modifying the height and duration of river floods and erosion of the riverbed. The formation of the troughs in the bed of the Yangtze is considered to be controlled by sets of NW–SE-oriented neotectonic fault zones, in which some segments consist of highly folded thick Triassic limestone crossed by the Yangtze River. Several limestone hills, currently located next to the river channel, serve as nodes that create large vortices in the river, thereby accelerating downcutting on the riverbed composed of limestone highly susceptible to physical corrosion and chemical dissolution. Hydrological records indicate that the nodal hills and channel configuration at Tianjiazhen do not impact on normal flow discharges but discharges > 50,000 m³s^− 1 are slowed down for 2–3 days. Catastrophic floods are held up for even longer periods. These inevitably result in elevated flood stages upstream of prolonged duration, affecting large cities such as Wuhan and a very large number of people.     

Reduced complexity strategies for modelling urban floodplain inundation

Significant advances in flood inundation modelling have been made in the last decade through the use of a new generation of 2D hydraulic numerical models. These offer the potential to predict the local pattern and timing of flood depth and velocity, enabling informed flood risk zoning and improved emergency planning. With the availability of high resolution DEMs derived from airborne lidar, these models can theoretically now be routinely parameterized to represent considerable topographic complexity, even in urban areas where the potential exists to represent flows at the scale of individual buildings. Currently, however, computational constraints on conventional finite element and volume codes typically require model discretization at scales well below those achievable with lidar and are thus unable to make optimal use of this emerging data stream.In this paper we review two strategies that attempt to address this mismatch between model and data resolution in an effort to improve urban flood forecasts. The first of these strives for a solution by simplifying the mathematical formulation of the numerical model by using a computationally efficient 2D raster storage cell approach coupled to a 1D channel model. This parsimonious model structure enables simulations over large model domains offering the opportunity to employ a topographic discretization strategy which explicitly represents the built environment. The second approach seeks to further reduce the computational overhead of this raster method by employing a subgrid parameterization to represent the effect of buildings and micro-relief on flow pathways and floodplain storage. This multi-scale methodology enables highly efficient model applications at coarse spatial resolutions while retaining information about the complex geometry of the built environment.These two strategies are evaluated through numerical experiments designed to reconstruct a flood in the small town of Linton in southern England, which occurred in response to a 1 in 250 year rainfall event in October 2001. Results from both approaches are encouraging, with the spatial pattern of inundation and flood wave propagation matching observations well. Both show significant advantages over a coarse resolution model without subgrid parameterisation, particularly in terms of their ability to reproduce both hydrograph and inundation depth measurements simultaneously, without need for recalibration. The subgrid parameterization is shown to achieve this without contributing significant computational complexity and reduces model run-times by an order of magnitude.     

Siderophile and chalcophile metal variations in Tertiary picrites and basalts from West Greenland with implications for the sulphide saturation history of continental flood basalt magmas

Sixty-five million year old continental flood basalts crop out on Qeqertarssuaq Island and the Nuussuaq Peninsula in West Greenland, and they include ～1,000 m of picritic lavas and discrete 10- to 50-m-thick members of highly contaminated basalts. On Qeqertarssuaq, the lavas are allocated to the Vaîgat and Maligât Formations of which the former includes the Naujánguit member, which consists of picrites with 7–29 wt% MgO, 80–1,400 ppm Ni, 5.7–9.4 ppb Pt and 4.2–12.9 ppb Pd. The Naujánguit member contains two horizons of contaminated basalts, the Asûk and Kûgánguaq, which have elevated SiO2 (52–58 wt%) and low to moderate MgO (7.5–12.8 wt%). These lavas are broadly characterized by low Cu and Ni abundances (average, 40 ppm Ni and 45 ppm Cu) and very low Pt (0.16–0.63 ppb) and Pd (0.13–0.68 ppb) abundances, and in the case of the Asûk, they contain shale xenoliths and droplets of native iron and troilite. The contaminated basalts from Nuussuaq, the B0 to B4 members, are also usually Ni-, Cu-, and platinum-group elements (PGE)-depleted. The geochemical signatures (especially the ratios of incompatible trace elements such as Th/Nb) of all of the contaminated basalts from Qeqertarssuaq and some of those from Nuussuaq record what appears to be a chemical contribution from deltaic shales that lie immediately below the lavas. This suggests that the contamination of the magmas occurred during the migration of the magmas through plumbing systems developed in sedimentary rocks, and hence, at a high crustal level. Nickel, Cu, and PGE depletion together with geochemical signatures produced by crustal contamination are also a feature of Siberian Trap basalts from the Noril’sk region. These basalts belong to the 0- to 500-m thick, ～5,000- to 10,000-km³ Nadezhdinsky Formation, which is centered in the Noril’sk Region. A major difference between Siberia and West Greenland is that PGE depletion in the Nadezhdinsky Formation samples with the lowest Cu and Ni contents is much more severe than that of the West Greenland contaminated basalts. Moreover, the volumes of the contaminated and metal-depleted volcanic rocks in West Greenland pale is significant when compared to the Nadezhdinsky Formation; local centers rarely contain more than 15 thin flows with a combined thickness of <50 m and more typically 10–20 m, so the volume of the eruptive portions of each system is probably two orders of magnitude smaller than the Nadezhdinsky edifice. The West Greenland centres are juxtaposed along fault zones that appear to be linked to the subsidence of the Tertiary delta, and so emplacement along N–S structures appears to be a principal control on the distribution of lavas and feeder intrusions. This leads us to suggest that the Greenland system is small and segregation of sulphide took place at high levels in the crust, whereas at Noril’sk, the saturation event took place at depth with subsequent emplacement of sulphide-bearing magmas into high levels of the crust. As a consequence, it may be unreasonable to expect that the West Greenland flood basalts experienced mineralizing processes on the scale of the Noril’sk system.