监测网顾及灵敏度准则的解析二类设计

变形体的变形模式确定的情况下,应用灵敏度准则进行监测网的设计;根据Ｔａｙｏｒ展式,导出了监测网顾及灵敏度准则的二类设计模型,并对其解算及模拟算例加以说明。     

淮河流域洪涝变化吸引子维数研究

淮河流域洪涝序列的功率谱表现出了较好的混沌谱特征,这是序列呈分形结构的内在原因。洪涝序列及其不同平滑序列的关联维数表明,序列平滑程度越大,关联维数越小,关联维数反映了序列所在系统的层次,是系统结构复杂性的重要量度,是 系统建模所需独立变量的控制参数。要恰当地描述淮河流域洪涝发生系数,需构造至少５个状态变量的动力学系统。     

Using the TCEV distribution function with systematic and non-systematic data in a regional flood frequency analysis

Due to the social and economic implications, flood frequency analysis must be done with the highest precision. For this reason, the most suitable statistical model must be selected, and the maximum amount of information must be used. Floods in Mediterranean rivers can be produced by two different mechanisms, which forces the use of a non-traditional distribution like the TCEV. The information can be increased by using additional non-systematic data, or with a regional analysis, or both. Through the statistical gain concept, it has been shown that in most cases the use of additional non-systematic information can decrease the quantile estimation error in about 50%. In a regional analysis, the␣benefit of additional information in one station, is propagated to the rest of␣the␣stations with only a small decrease with respect to the at-site equivalent analysis.     

PREDICTING RESERVOIR SEDIMENTATION WITH 2D MODEL FLOODSIM

ＰＲＥＤＩＣＴＩＮＧＲＥＳＥＲＶＯＩＲＳＥＤＩＭＥＮＴＡＴＩＯＮＷＩＴＨ２ＤＭＯＤＥＬＦＬＯＯＤＳＩＭＷ．ＢＥＣＨＴＥＬＥＲ１ａｎｄＭ．ＮＵＪＩＣ２ＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴＰｒｅｄｉｃｔｉｏｎｏｆｓｅｄｉｍｅｎｔａｔｉｏｎｉｓｖｅｒｙｉｍｐｏｒｔａｎｔｂｅｆ...     

RIVER MORPHOLOGY AND CHANNEL STABILIZATION OF THE BRAHMAPUTRA RIVER IN BANGLADESH

１ＩＮＴＲＯＤＵＣＴＩＯＮＴｈｅＢｒａｈｍａｐｕｔｒａＲｉｖｅｒｏｒｉｇｉｎａｔｅｓｆｒｏｍｔｈｅＪｉｍａｙａｎｚｈｏｎｇｇｌａｃｉｅｒａｔｔｈｅｎｏｒｔｈｆｏｏｔｏｆｔｈｅＨｉｍａｌａｙａＭｏｕｎｔａｉｎｓｉｎＳｏｕｔｈＴｉｂｅｔ,Ｃｈｉｎａ．Ｉ...     

大型天然水体的环境效应研究

结合典型实例,论述大型天然水体－－堰塞湖从形成到消亡过程中产生的灾害链和环境效应链,包括堰塞湖的淹没、边岸再造、堰塞沉积物、次生洪水、永久性不良地质环境的灾害和环境效应对人民生命财产的威胁,以及对水利水电、航运、公路和铁路工程的不良影响。     

GPS技术在金川露天矿边坡变形监测中的应用

本文结合金川露天矿边坡变形GPS监测研究,主要论述监测基点的选择,基点WGS-84坐标的确定,变形监测网的布设,GPS数据采集、处理和质量,坐标转换的实施等,给出反演推出的若干四等三角点及其它控制点的变形数据,这些数据和造成变形的物理成因符合得很好,最后概括出GPS技术应用于变形观测的若干优点。     

Using regional regression within index flood procedures and an empirical Bayesian estimator

Studies have illustrated the performance of at-site and regional flood quantile estimators. For realistic generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions and short records, a simple index-flood quantile estimator performs better than two-parameter (2P) GEV quantile estimators with probability weighted moment (PWM) estimation using a regional shape parameter and at-site mean and L-coefficient of variation (L-CV), and full three-parameter at-site GEV/PWM quantile estimators. However, as regional heterogeneity or record lengths increase, the 2P-estimator quickly dominates. This paper generalizes the index flood procedure by employing regression with physiographic information to refine a normalized T-year flood estimator. A linear empirical Bayes estimator uses the normalized quantile regression estimator to define a prior distribution which is employed with the normalized 2P-quantile estimator. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that this empirical Bayes estimator does essentially as well as or better than the simpler normalized quantile regression estimator at sites with short records, and performs as well as or better than the 2P-estimator at sites with longer records or smaller L-CV.     

The role of social norms in climate adaptation: Mediating risk perception and flood insurance purchase

Flood insurance plays an important role in climate adaptation by recovering insured losses in the event of catastrophic flooding. Voluntary adoption of flood insurance has been seen as a function of risk perception that is shaped by social norms. This paper attempts to clarify the relationship between these factors. It is based on a household survey conducted in the eastern cities of Australia and involving a total of 501 randomly selected residents. Results of a path analysis show that the likelihood of having flood insurance cover was associated with perceived social norms, but not perceived flood risk. In addition, perceived norms and risk were statistically related to each other. It is concluded that social norms played a mediating role between insuring decision and risk perception. Risk perception might influence the insuring decision indirectly through shaping perception of social norms. This implies that adaptive behaviour is not necessarily a function of risk perception, but an outcome of its impacts upon the ways in which the individuals situate themselves in their social circles or the society. There is a feedback process in which individual perceptions of risk manifest as both a cause and effect, shaping and being shaped by the socio-cultural context.