Mapping flood pressure points: assessing vulnerability of the UK Fire Service to flooding

A vulnerability index for the Fire Service in the UK has been designed to identify vulnerable locations during episodes of severe floods. Taking recent case studies with the UK Fire Service, the patterns of vulnerability, in terms of demand on time and resources, can be explained by investigating the environmental causes and their interaction with the adaptive capacity of the response agencies.

从2020年长江上游洪水看流域防洪对策

2020年长江上游和中下游先后发生特大洪水,其中干流编号洪水全部发生在上游,构成了长江流域洪水的主要部分。首先回顾2020年洪水及洪灾情况,然后根据历史上几次特大洪水过程和历年实测资料,分析长江上游洪水特征、洪灾类型及特点,最后提出新时代长江流域洪水整体防御战略及山洪灾害防治战术。研究表明:金沙江洪水是长江上游洪水基础部分,岷江、嘉陵江和干流区间是洪峰的主要来源,三者洪水遭遇是产生上游特大洪水的主因,上游洪水又是全流域特大洪水的基础和重要组成部分。目前造成洪灾死亡人数最多的是山洪以及山洪引起的地质灾害,财产损失最大的是中下游及湖泊地区。未来堤防仍然是防洪的基础,提高沿江城市防洪标准主要手段是控制性水库的联合优化调度,而减少洪涝灾害损失最有效的途径是给洪水以空间的自然解决方案等非工程措施。     

Analyses of summer lightning activity and precipitation in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean

The lightning activity and precipitation in two 3-hour time intervals in the grid boxes of 0.25 × 0.25° over East and Central Mediterranean during the summer of 2005 and 2006 are analysed. The results show that the frequency distribution of the precipitation amount is shifted towards larger values for the cases with lightning as compared with the cases without lightning. It was found that the number of cases with 3-hour accumulated rainfall greater than 10 mm was bigger when lightning occurred (65%) than when it was absent (35%). Investigation of diurnal and spatial distributions of lightning shows that the afternoon flash density peak is associated mainly with lightning over the land, which is in accordance with the results of earlier works. The early morning flash density peak is associated mainly with flashes over the sea. High correlation coefficients (0.89 during the morning hours and 0.98 during afternoon) were found between rain rate (mm/h) and average flash density (fl/km²) when flash density is averaged in logarithmic intervals of rain rate.     

网上发布天气预报系统的开发

针对网上发布天气预报的重要性，从省时、高效、准确、实用方面考虑，探讨几种实现网上发布天气预报的方法。     

Sedimentology of the upper Karoo fluvial strata in the Tuli Basin, South Africa

The sedimentary rocks of the Karoo Supergroup in the Tuli Basin (South Africa) may be grouped in four stratigraphic units: the basal, middle and upper units, and the Clarens Formation. This paper presents the findings of the sedimentological investigation of the fluvial terrigenous clastic and chemical deposits of the upper unit. Evidence provided by primary sedimentary structures, palaeontological record, borehole data, palaeo-flow measurements and stratigraphic relations resulted in the palaeo-environmental reconstruction of the upper unit.The dominant facies assemblages are represented by sandstones and finer-grained sediments, which both can be interbedded with subordinate intraformational coarser facies. The facies assemblages of the upper unit are interpreted as deposits of a low-sinuosity, ephemeral stream system with calcretes and silcretes in the dinosaur-inhabited overbank area. During the deposition of the upper unit, the climate was semi-arid with sparse precipitation resulting in high-magnitude, low-frequency devastating flash floods. The current indicators of the palaeo-drainage system suggest flow direction from northwest to southeast, in a dominantly extensional tectonic setting.Based on sedimentologic and biostratigraphic evidence, the upper unit of the Tuli Basin correlates to the Elliot Formation in the main Karoo Basin to the south.     

Geographical analysis of damage due to flash floods in southern France: The cases of 12–13 November 1999 and 8–9 September 2002

The southern part of France near the Mediterranean Sea is subject to flash floods generated by heavy rainfalls typical of the Mediterranean climate. In November 1999 (the 12th and 13th) and in September 2002 (the 8th and 9th), 5000 km² were touched by rainfalls superior to 200 mm in the departments of Aude and Gard. In both cases, maximum precipitation exceeded 500 mm within 24 h. The damage amounted in the hundreds of millions of euros, and there were numerous fatalities: 35 in 1999, and 23 in 2002. Following a survey of available data, this article details the cost of the damage for both flash flood events. The distribution of the damage is quantified by sector of activity (e.g., industry, agriculture). The average ratio “euros of loss per inhabitant” is quite similar in both cases, but this average hides some geographical discrepancies. Losses in industry can locally worsen the overall toll. The mapping of damage on a local scale and the amount of losses per inhabitant demonstrate that rural areas underwent heavy losses. This was mostly due to the destruction of the public infrastructures (e.g., roads, bridges) that represented more than half of the overall loss. In some rural areas, the cost of flash floods can exceed 15,000 euros per inhabitant. Such flood prevention issues as flood warning systems and land use planning must not focus only on the cities. Death, injury and heavy material losses also disadvantage the rural and mountainous areas where populations and activities are concentrated near rivers.     

Distributed hydrologic and hydraulic modelling with radar rainfall input: Reconstruction of the 8–9 September 2002 catastrophic flood event in the Gard region,France

On 8–9 September 2002, an extreme rainfall event caused by a stationary mesoscale convective system (MCS) occurred in the Gard region, France. Distributed hydrologic and hydraulic modelling has been carried out to assess and compare the various sources of data collected operationally and during the post-event field surveys. Distributed hydrological modelling was performed with n-TOPMODELs and assessed for ungauged basins with the discharge estimates of the post-event surveys. A careful examination of the occurrence in time and space of the flash floods over the head watersheds indicates that flooding was controlled by the trajectory of the convective part of the MCS. Stationarity of the MCS over the Gardon watershed (1858 km² at Remoulins) for 28 h was responsible for the exceptional magnitude of the flood at this scale. The flood dynamics were characterized by an extensive inundation of the Gardonnenque plain upstream of the Gardon Gorges resulting in a significant peak flow reduction downstream. One-dimensional unsteady-flow hydraulic modelling was found to be required to reproduce these dynamics. Hydraulic modelling also proved to be potentially useful for the critical analysis and extrapolation of operational discharge rating curves.     

卫星观测到的我国闪电活动的时空分布特征

利用卫星上携带的闪电探测仪所获取的8年闪电资料,对我国闪电活动的空间分布、季节变化和日变化等特征进行了分析。结果表明：按照闪电活动的频繁程度在空间上可以将我国大致分为与太平洋海岸平行的4条闪电活动带：即近海区域、中部区域、西部区域和西部边境区域。其中,东南近海区域是我国闪电活动最频繁的地区,并向西北地区逐渐减弱,而西部地区则是我国闪电活动最弱的地区。我国的闪电活动呈现出明显的季节变化和日变化,平均而言,闪电活动主要集中在夏季(约占全年总闪电活动的68％),并以8月份最为活跃,春季次之(约占全年总闪电活动的24％),然后是秋季,冬季最弱,并在11月份出现闪电活动的最小值。在各个季节,随着纬度的减小闪电活动呈现出明显增大的趋势。闪电活动的日变化表明,我国的闪电活动绝大多数发生在午后至傍晚时分,这也与对流活动相对应,而少数地区发生在夜间。     

2006-2009年安徽省闪电活动时空特征分析

根据安徽省2006~2009年4年来10个地面测站的闪电定位数据资料,分析安徽省闪电活动的时空分布特点。从时间分布来看,闪电频次分布具有明显的季节性,春季闪电发生频次上升,夏季7月达最大值,秋季下降,至冬季达最小值。在闪电发生频次逐时分布中呈现出一定规律性,闪电多发生在1天中15:00-17:00,而在9:00发生频次最少。通过分析闪电空间密度分布图可以发现,南部闪电密度大于北部,原因是北部以平原为主,南部以山丘为主,且南北气候类型不同,北部为暖温带半湿润季风气候,南部为亚热带湿润季风气候,而且与北部相比南部经济发展快,城市高层建筑多,人口密度大,和空气污染相对严重。     

基于博弈论和K均值的北京山区小流域综合敏感性评价

敏感性分析是全面掌握小流域沟谷发展总体特征的有效途径。北京山区山洪泥石流灾害常相伴或交替发生, 只考虑泥石流孕灾环境而忽视山洪致灾因子不能适应北京山区防灾减灾的客观要求。在分析泥石流敏感性基础上引入山洪评价因子, 选取北京山区10条典型小流域, 构建山洪泥石流综合评价体系, 通过层次分析法对指标进行主观赋权, 熵值法进行客观赋权, 由博弈论给出各指标的组合权重值, 由K均值聚类法将小流域敏感性分为轻度、中度、重度3个等级。结合现场调查验证分类结果, 表明山洪泥石流综合敏感性评价结果更适合北京山区的客观情况。