Analyses of summer lightning activity and precipitation in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean

The lightning activity and precipitation in two 3-hour time intervals in the grid boxes of 0.25 × 0.25° over East and Central Mediterranean during the summer of 2005 and 2006 are analysed. The results show that the frequency distribution of the precipitation amount is shifted towards larger values for the cases with lightning as compared with the cases without lightning. It was found that the number of cases with 3-hour accumulated rainfall greater than 10 mm was bigger when lightning occurred (65%) than when it was absent (35%). Investigation of diurnal and spatial distributions of lightning shows that the afternoon flash density peak is associated mainly with lightning over the land, which is in accordance with the results of earlier works. The early morning flash density peak is associated mainly with flashes over the sea. High correlation coefficients (0.89 during the morning hours and 0.98 during afternoon) were found between rain rate (mm/h) and average flash density (fl/km²) when flash density is averaged in logarithmic intervals of rain rate.     

网上发布天气预报系统的开发

针对网上发布天气预报的重要性，从省时、高效、准确、实用方面考虑，探讨几种实现网上发布天气预报的方法。     

Sedimentology of the upper Karoo fluvial strata in the Tuli Basin, South Africa

The sedimentary rocks of the Karoo Supergroup in the Tuli Basin (South Africa) may be grouped in four stratigraphic units: the basal, middle and upper units, and the Clarens Formation. This paper presents the findings of the sedimentological investigation of the fluvial terrigenous clastic and chemical deposits of the upper unit. Evidence provided by primary sedimentary structures, palaeontological record, borehole data, palaeo-flow measurements and stratigraphic relations resulted in the palaeo-environmental reconstruction of the upper unit.The dominant facies assemblages are represented by sandstones and finer-grained sediments, which both can be interbedded with subordinate intraformational coarser facies. The facies assemblages of the upper unit are interpreted as deposits of a low-sinuosity, ephemeral stream system with calcretes and silcretes in the dinosaur-inhabited overbank area. During the deposition of the upper unit, the climate was semi-arid with sparse precipitation resulting in high-magnitude, low-frequency devastating flash floods. The current indicators of the palaeo-drainage system suggest flow direction from northwest to southeast, in a dominantly extensional tectonic setting.Based on sedimentologic and biostratigraphic evidence, the upper unit of the Tuli Basin correlates to the Elliot Formation in the main Karoo Basin to the south.     

Geographical analysis of damage due to flash floods in southern France: The cases of 12–13 November 1999 and 8–9 September 2002

The southern part of France near the Mediterranean Sea is subject to flash floods generated by heavy rainfalls typical of the Mediterranean climate. In November 1999 (the 12th and 13th) and in September 2002 (the 8th and 9th), 5000 km² were touched by rainfalls superior to 200 mm in the departments of Aude and Gard. In both cases, maximum precipitation exceeded 500 mm within 24 h. The damage amounted in the hundreds of millions of euros, and there were numerous fatalities: 35 in 1999, and 23 in 2002. Following a survey of available data, this article details the cost of the damage for both flash flood events. The distribution of the damage is quantified by sector of activity (e.g., industry, agriculture). The average ratio “euros of loss per inhabitant” is quite similar in both cases, but this average hides some geographical discrepancies. Losses in industry can locally worsen the overall toll. The mapping of damage on a local scale and the amount of losses per inhabitant demonstrate that rural areas underwent heavy losses. This was mostly due to the destruction of the public infrastructures (e.g., roads, bridges) that represented more than half of the overall loss. In some rural areas, the cost of flash floods can exceed 15,000 euros per inhabitant. Such flood prevention issues as flood warning systems and land use planning must not focus only on the cities. Death, injury and heavy material losses also disadvantage the rural and mountainous areas where populations and activities are concentrated near rivers.     

Distributed hydrologic and hydraulic modelling with radar rainfall input: Reconstruction of the 8–9 September 2002 catastrophic flood event in the Gard region,France

On 8–9 September 2002, an extreme rainfall event caused by a stationary mesoscale convective system (MCS) occurred in the Gard region, France. Distributed hydrologic and hydraulic modelling has been carried out to assess and compare the various sources of data collected operationally and during the post-event field surveys. Distributed hydrological modelling was performed with n-TOPMODELs and assessed for ungauged basins with the discharge estimates of the post-event surveys. A careful examination of the occurrence in time and space of the flash floods over the head watersheds indicates that flooding was controlled by the trajectory of the convective part of the MCS. Stationarity of the MCS over the Gardon watershed (1858 km² at Remoulins) for 28 h was responsible for the exceptional magnitude of the flood at this scale. The flood dynamics were characterized by an extensive inundation of the Gardonnenque plain upstream of the Gardon Gorges resulting in a significant peak flow reduction downstream. One-dimensional unsteady-flow hydraulic modelling was found to be required to reproduce these dynamics. Hydraulic modelling also proved to be potentially useful for the critical analysis and extrapolation of operational discharge rating curves.     

卫星观测到的我国闪电活动的时空分布特征

利用卫星上携带的闪电探测仪所获取的8年闪电资料,对我国闪电活动的空间分布、季节变化和日变化等特征进行了分析。结果表明：按照闪电活动的频繁程度在空间上可以将我国大致分为与太平洋海岸平行的4条闪电活动带：即近海区域、中部区域、西部区域和西部边境区域。其中,东南近海区域是我国闪电活动最频繁的地区,并向西北地区逐渐减弱,而西部地区则是我国闪电活动最弱的地区。我国的闪电活动呈现出明显的季节变化和日变化,平均而言,闪电活动主要集中在夏季(约占全年总闪电活动的68％),并以8月份最为活跃,春季次之(约占全年总闪电活动的24％),然后是秋季,冬季最弱,并在11月份出现闪电活动的最小值。在各个季节,随着纬度的减小闪电活动呈现出明显增大的趋势。闪电活动的日变化表明,我国的闪电活动绝大多数发生在午后至傍晚时分,这也与对流活动相对应,而少数地区发生在夜间。     

2006-2009年安徽省闪电活动时空特征分析

根据安徽省2006~2009年4年来10个地面测站的闪电定位数据资料,分析安徽省闪电活动的时空分布特点。从时间分布来看,闪电频次分布具有明显的季节性,春季闪电发生频次上升,夏季7月达最大值,秋季下降,至冬季达最小值。在闪电发生频次逐时分布中呈现出一定规律性,闪电多发生在1天中15:00-17:00,而在9:00发生频次最少。通过分析闪电空间密度分布图可以发现,南部闪电密度大于北部,原因是北部以平原为主,南部以山丘为主,且南北气候类型不同,北部为暖温带半湿润季风气候,南部为亚热带湿润季风气候,而且与北部相比南部经济发展快,城市高层建筑多,人口密度大,和空气污染相对严重。     

Multi-hazard susceptibility mapping based on Convolutional Neural Networks

Multi-hazard susceptibility prediction is an important component of disasters risk management plan. An effective multi-hazard risk mitigation strategy includes assessing individual hazards as well as their interactions. However, with the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology, multi-hazard susceptibility prediction techniques based on machine learning has encountered a huge bottleneck. In order to effectively solve this problem, this study proposes a multi-hazard susceptibility mapping framework using the classical deep learning algorithm of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN). First, we use historical flash flood, debris flow and landslide locations based on Google Earth images, extensive field surveys, topography, hydrology, and environmental data sets to train and validate the proposed CNN method. Next, the proposed CNN method is assessed in comparison to conventional logistic regression and k-nearest neighbor methods using several objective criteria, i.e., coefficient of determination, overall accuracy, mean absolute error and the root mean square error. Experimental results show that the CNN method outperforms the conventional machine learning algorithms in predicting probability of flash floods, debris flows and landslides. Finally, the susceptibility maps of the three hazards based on CNN are combined to create a multi-hazard susceptibility map. It can be observed from the map that 62.43% of the study area are prone to hazards, while 37.57% of the study area are harmless. In hazard-prone areas, 16.14%, 4.94% and 30.66% of the study area are susceptible to flash floods, debris flows and landslides, respectively. In terms of concurrent hazards, 0.28%, 7.11% and 3.13% of the study area are susceptible to the joint occurrence of flash floods and debris flow, debris flow and landslides, and flash floods and landslides, respectively, whereas, 0.18% of the study area is subject to all the three hazards. The results of this study can benefit engineers, disaster managers and local government officials involved in sustainable land management and disaster risk mitigation.