Towards flash-flood prediction in the dry Dead Sea region utilizing radar rainfall information

Flash-flood warning models can save lives and protect various kinds of infrastructure. In dry climate regions, rainfall is highly variable and can be of high-intensity. Since rain gauge networks in such areas are sparse, rainfall information derived from weather radar systems can provide useful input for flash-flood models. This paper presents a flash-flood warning model which utilizes radar rainfall data and applies it to two catchments that drain into the dry Dead Sea region. Radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) were derived using a rain gauge adjustment approach, either on a daily basis (allowing the adjustment factor to change over time, assuming available real-time gauge data) or using a constant factor value (derived from rain gauge data) over the entire period of the analysis. The QPEs served as input for a continuous hydrological model that represents the main hydrological processes in the region, namely infiltration, flow routing and transmission losses. The infiltration function is applied in a distributed mode while the routing and transmission loss functions are applied in a lumped mode. Model parameters were found by calibration based on the 5 years of data for one of the catchments. Validation was performed for a subsequent 5-year period for the same catchment and then for an entire 10-year record for the second catchment. The probability of detection and false alarm rates for the validation cases were reasonable. Probabilistic flash-flood prediction is presented applying Monte Carlo simulations with an uncertainty range for the QPEs and model parameters. With low probability thresholds, one can maintain more than 70% detection with no more than 30% false alarms. The study demonstrates that a flash-flood warning model is feasible for catchments in the area studied.     

基于Flash+XML+ASP技术的互动式网络地图构建

通过对现今较为成熟的网络地图发布技术及其实现方式进行比较研究,提出了利用Flash＋XML＋ASP技术构建互动式网络地图的新方法,详细介绍了采用此方法构建互动式网络地图的技术流程及具体实现方法,实现了真正意义上的“瘦客户端”的互动式网络地图。     

Analyses of summer lightning activity and precipitation in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean

The lightning activity and precipitation in two 3-hour time intervals in the grid boxes of 0.25 × 0.25° over East and Central Mediterranean during the summer of 2005 and 2006 are analysed. The results show that the frequency distribution of the precipitation amount is shifted towards larger values for the cases with lightning as compared with the cases without lightning. It was found that the number of cases with 3-hour accumulated rainfall greater than 10 mm was bigger when lightning occurred (65%) than when it was absent (35%). Investigation of diurnal and spatial distributions of lightning shows that the afternoon flash density peak is associated mainly with lightning over the land, which is in accordance with the results of earlier works. The early morning flash density peak is associated mainly with flashes over the sea. High correlation coefficients (0.89 during the morning hours and 0.98 during afternoon) were found between rain rate (mm/h) and average flash density (fl/km²) when flash density is averaged in logarithmic intervals of rain rate.     

Sedimentology of the upper Karoo fluvial strata in the Tuli Basin, South Africa

The sedimentary rocks of the Karoo Supergroup in the Tuli Basin (South Africa) may be grouped in four stratigraphic units: the basal, middle and upper units, and the Clarens Formation. This paper presents the findings of the sedimentological investigation of the fluvial terrigenous clastic and chemical deposits of the upper unit. Evidence provided by primary sedimentary structures, palaeontological record, borehole data, palaeo-flow measurements and stratigraphic relations resulted in the palaeo-environmental reconstruction of the upper unit.The dominant facies assemblages are represented by sandstones and finer-grained sediments, which both can be interbedded with subordinate intraformational coarser facies. The facies assemblages of the upper unit are interpreted as deposits of a low-sinuosity, ephemeral stream system with calcretes and silcretes in the dinosaur-inhabited overbank area. During the deposition of the upper unit, the climate was semi-arid with sparse precipitation resulting in high-magnitude, low-frequency devastating flash floods. The current indicators of the palaeo-drainage system suggest flow direction from northwest to southeast, in a dominantly extensional tectonic setting.Based on sedimentologic and biostratigraphic evidence, the upper unit of the Tuli Basin correlates to the Elliot Formation in the main Karoo Basin to the south.     

"测量学"教学动画软件研制

为更好地开展"测量学"教学,提高教学质量与效率,以Flash为开发工具,研制开发了"测量学"多媒体动画教学软件.这些动画软件能够生动形象地表现测量的原理与过程、展现仪器的操作使用细节,可激发学生的学习兴趣,丰富教学内容,能够增强教学效果,提高教学质量.     

基于Flash+XML+ASP技术的互动式网络地图构建

随着网络地图的迅猛发展,互动式网络地图兴运而生。笔者通过对现今较为成熟的网络地图发布技术及其实现方式进行比较研究,提出了利用Flash+XML+ASP技术构建互动式网络地图的新方法,并在此基础上详细介绍了采用此方法构建互动式网络地图的技术流程及具体实现方法,实现了真正意义上的"瘦客户端"的互动式网络地图。     

Hydraulic model tests for propagation of flow and sediment in floods due to breaking of a natural landslide dam during a mountainous torrent

During mountain torrents, large-magnitude floods may result from heavy rainfall and cause the breakage of landslide dams naturally formed by heavy rainfall, earthquakes, and so on. The characteristics of longitudinal spreading of clear water discharge and changes in flow depth must be clarified because the changes in peak depth have not yet been examined in steep-slope torrents and because there are few data on spreading of flash floods and related sedimentation in mountainous torrents. In the present study, experimental data were collected through hydraulic model tests over a rigid bed, and the spreading of water, fine sediment, bed load, and large boulders due to flooding are discussed assuming that flash flooding/debris flows occur in the upstream reach. The effects of changes in flow width, such as expansions and contractions in the flow width, as well as changes in meandering channels, sediment transportation, and spreading flow depth resulting from bores are examined using flume data for a steep-slope torrent. The data obtained in the present study reveal that fine sediment components are transported to the downstream reach if large-magnitude floods occur and that the spreading rate and peak lags of the fine sediment and water level indicate the occurrence of a flood in the upstream reach.     

基于Flash开发多媒体电子地图的方法

通过分析解决基于Flash技术构建多媒体电子地图中的几个问题,具体说明包括地图数据转换和使用功能的实现方法。     

前期土壤湿度和降雨对小流域山洪预警指标的影响评估

山洪灾害临界雨量预警指标受多种因素影响,尤其是前期土壤湿度状况和降雨变化。基于分布式水文模型和情景分析法确定安徽省岳西流域的山洪灾害临界雨量集合,评估前期土壤湿度状况、雨型和预警时段对临界雨量变化的影响。研究表明：① 中国山洪水文模拟系统在研究区内具有较好的适用性,率定期和验证期的平均径流深和洪峰流量相对误差均在15%以内,平均峰现时间误差在1h以内,平均Nash-Sutcliffe系数为0.79和0.77;② 60种情景模式下,池墩组村的临界雨量集合为141~528 mm;③ 前期土湿状况和雨型均显著影响临界雨量变化,随着土壤饱和率从0.20分别增加到0.50和0.80,临界雨量分别减少13.7%~16.2%和26.8%~31.8%;短历时预警时,临界雨量由大到小的相应雨型分别为减弱雨型、中间雨型和增强雨型。研究可为山洪灾害预报和早期预警提供理论支持,也为中国山洪灾害防治提供参考和借鉴。     

网上发布天气预报系统的开发

针对网上发布天气预报的重要性，从省时、高效、准确、实用方面考虑，探讨几种实现网上发布天气预报的方法。