New-type urbanization in China: Predicted trends and investment demand for 2015–2030

The future development of new-type urbanization has drawn great attention from both the government and public alike. In this context, the present study had three related research aims. Firstly, it sought to predict the urbanization and population dynamics in China at both national and provincial levels for the period of 2015 to 2030. Secondly, on this basis, it sought to examine the spatial variation of urbanization given the predicted national urbanization rate of 70.12%. Thirdly, it sought to estimate and evaluate the national and provincial demands of investment in the development of new-type urbanization. The main conclusions from this study were as follows: (1) The population size and urbanization rate will reach 1.445 billion and 70.12%, respectively, from 2015 to 2030. (2) The demographic dividend will vanish when the population pressure reaches its maximum. During this period, there will be 70.16 million urban population born. The suburban population that becomes urbanized will be 316.7 million, and thus the net increase in urban population will reach 386 million. (3) Although the urbanization rate of every Chinese province will increase during 2015–2030, it will do so unequally, while differences in urbanization quality among provinces will also be substantial. In some provinces, moreover, the urbanization quality is not compatible with their eco-social development. (4) A total of 4,105,380 billion yuan is required to fund new-type urbanization and the investment demand for each province varies greatly; for example, Guangdong province requires the most funding, amounting to approximately 148 times that required by Tibet, the province in least need of funding. In the final part of this study, policy suggestions concerning the investment of the new-type urbanization are put forward and discussed.     

中国流动人口的城市宜居性感知及其对定居意愿的影响

流动人口是中国城镇化进程的重要参与者,加强其定居意愿特征分析对制定中国新型城镇化发展政策具有重要参考价值。基于中国40个主要城市的宜居城市问卷调查数据,运用描述统计和地理探测器方法,揭示中国流动人口的城市宜居性感知特征及其对定居意愿的影响。研究结果表明：①中国流动人口的城市宜居性感知评价分异明显,呈现出“公共服务设施便利性>自然环境舒适性>社会人文环境舒适性>环境健康性>交通便捷性>城市安全性”的递减特征;②中国流动人口的公共服务设施便利性、社会人文环境舒适性、环境健康性和城市安全性等4个维度城市宜居性感知对其定居意愿具有显著影响,且影响强度依次递减,但二者关系并不完全呈简单的线性特征。③相对他人收入满意度、生活满意度、住房价格感知和地理区位等参照变量,以及年龄、性别和职业等个体与家庭属性也是影响中国流动人口定居意愿的重要因素。     

粮食安全视角下中国历史气候变化影响与响应的过程与机理

基于现代全球变化研究中关于脆弱性和粮食安全的概念,把历史时期的粮食安全分解为粮食生产安全、粮食供给安全、粮食消费安全3个层次,以气候变化直接影响粮食生产水平为起点,分析气候变化-农(牧)业收成-食物的人均供给量-饥民-社会稳定性的驱动-响应链中的关键过程,指出气候变化影响的驱动-响应关系不能归结为简单的因果关系,诸如耕地、人口、政策、外来势力都会对气候变化的影响起着放大或抑制的作用。     

Seasonal and interannual variations in the East Sakhalin current revealed by TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data

Seasonal and interannual variations in the East Sakhalin Current (ESC) are investigated using ten-year records of the sea level anomaly (SLA) observed by the TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) altimeter. The T/P SLA clearly documents seasonal and interannual variations in the ESC along the east coast of Sakhalin Island, although sea ice masks the region from January to April. Estimates of surface current velocity anomaly derived from T/P SLA are in good agreement with drifting buoy observations. The ESC is strong in winter, with a typical current velocity of 30–40 cm s⁻¹ in December, and almost disappears in summer. Southward flow of the ESC is confined to the shelf and slope region and consists of two velocity cores. These features of the ESC are consistent with short-term observations reported in previous studies. Analysis of the ten-year records of T/P SLA confirms that the structure of the ESC is maintained each winter and the seasonal cycle is repeated every year, although the strength of the ESC shows large interannual variations. Seasonal and interannual variations in the ESC are discussed in relation to wind-driven circulation in the Sea of Okhotsk, using wind stress and wind stress curl fields derived from European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis data and a scatterometer-derived wind product. Seasonal and interannual variations of the anticyclonic eddy in the Kuril Basin are also revealed using T/P SLA.     

南海东部深海沉积中的孢粉研究及其古环境意义

通过对南海东部 149 站深海柱状剖面的孢粉、藻类研究,根据孢粉成分的变化将该孔沉积层从下至上划分为 4 个孢粉组合带.1 带:Pinus-Quercus(常绿)-Umbellferae-Gramineae-Pteris 孢粉带(407～270cm);2 带:Dacrydium-Quercus-Cyathea-Pinus-Polypodiaceae 孢粉带(270～105 cm);3 带:Pinus-Polypodiaceae-Quercus(常绿)-Pteridium 孢粉带(105～30 cm);4 带:Gleditsia-Cyathea-Pinus-Polypodiaceae 孢粉带(30～0 cm).并相应恢复了南海东部 7.5 万 a 以来 4 个植被、气候、古环境演替阶段:热带北缘半常绿季雨林、热带季雨林、热带北缘半常绿季雨林和热带季雨林.结合氧同位素测年资料,对 149 站柱状地层时代作了划分.     

基于综合指标法的中国生态系统服务保护有效性评价研究

将生态系统服务保护纳入到传统的以保护区为基础的自然保护之中是生态保护研究的新领域。利用综合指标方法,分析了中国从2000-2010年的4种生态系统服务时空变化特征;并对中国的七大生态保护和恢复区域的服务空间保护成效进行评价,提出了国家尺度上的生态系统服务保护优先性分级。主要结论为：① 中国的生态系统服务自西北向东南逐渐增加,显著增加区主要分布在黄土高原地区,显著减少区主要分布在东北及华北地区。黄土高原的生态系统服务提高主要是农田向草地和林地、草地向林地的转换引的;华北地区的降低主要是耕地的减少以及人工用地的增加引起的;东北地区是由于林地向耕地草地、耕地向湿地与人工用地的转换引起的。② 七大生态保护和恢复区的生态系统服务均为增加趋势而且显著增加面积大于减少面积;显著增加面积最大的为三北防护林工程区、最小的为重点生态功能区;显著减少最大为重要生态功能区、最小的为三北防护林工程区。而且,对服务的保护成效在重要生态功能区最高,其次为天然林保护工程区,其余区域均小于全国平均水平。③ 提出的生态系统服务保护优先性等级中,极高级别占到了国土面积的26.18%,保护的生态系统服务量占到全国总量的64.19%,保护成效为全国平均水平的2.47倍。     

南海北部海区水团的判别分析

将判别分析应用于南海北部海区的水团分析。划分为八个水团:沿岸冲淡水团(F),近岸混合水团(M),暖表层水团(WS),表层水团(S),表—次层混合水团(SU),次层水团(U),次—中层混合水团(UI)和中层水团(I)。给出了各水团在四季代表月的Bayes多组判别的系数和参数。用资料检验判别的成效.冬季和春季可达95.90％以上,夏季为94.80％,秋季是全年最低值,为92.72％。讨论了造成错判的原因,并与Fisher判别作了比较。当测值维数较低时,建议选用Bayes判别。对八个水团以及各水团两两之间差异的显著性进行了检验,证实在每个季节中各水团之间的差异,都在高度置信水平(α=0.01)上具有显著性。因而,划分为八个水团是有实际意义的,其判别式的系数和参数,可用于实际的判别和预报。     

On cumulus-scale transport of horizontal momentum in monsoon depression over India

A diagnostie method of cumulus parameterization is suggested in which vertical transport of horizontal momentum by cumulus-scale is derived by making use of large-scale vorticity as well as divergence budget equations. Data for composite monsoon depression over India available from our earlier studies used to test the method. As a first approximation, the results are obtained using only the vorticity budget equation.The results show that in the southwest sector of the monsoon depression, which is characterized by maximum cloudiness and precipitation, there is an excess of cyclonic vorticity in the lower troposphere and anticyclonic vorticity in the upper troposphere associated with the large-scale motion. The distribution of eddy vertical transport of horizontal momentum is such that anticyclonic vorticity is generated in the lower troposphere and cyclonic vorticity aloft. Cumulus-scale eddies thus work against the large-scale system and tend to off-set the large-scale imbalance in vorticity.     

东北三省城市扩展及植被覆盖状况

基于三期遥感影像数据( MSS、ETM、CBERS) 对城市建成区的面积进行了调查,研究30 多年来东北三省城市的扩展情况,并且结合NDVI 数据,对研究区范围内的植被覆盖情况进行了研究。结果表明: 1976-2000 年、2000-2007 年两个阶段,城市建成区的面积持续增加,年均扩展率由 5. 10%增加至6. 32%,扩展强度比较显著的区域主要分布在哈大交通经济带上; 研究区范围内东部的植被覆盖情况明显好于西部,NDVI 均值随与城市距离的增加而提高。     

三江源地区土壤侵蚀特点

三江源地区地域辽阔,土壤侵蚀复杂多样.近年来土壤侵蚀加剧,生态环境严重退化.以2000年土壤侵蚀调查的数据成果为基数.并与更新后的2005年数据成果比较,进行土壤侵蚀动态变化分析.对三江源地区不同类型土壤侵蚀区的土壤侵蚀现状做了较全面的分区评价.同时对作为典型区域的黄河源头区12个县的2000年1:10万Landsat 5 TIM假彩色合成影像,通过野外调查建它解译标志来分析该区植被覆盖状况,对该区典型区域的土壤侵蚀现状做了定量评价.根据评价结果,对三江源地区土壤侵蚀的发展趋势做了预测.