热带印度洋海温异常与ENSO关系的进一步研究

用1955年1月-2001年12月美国Scripps海洋研究所的海温再分析资料、美国NCEP再分析资料和美国气候预测中心(CPC)资料,讨论了热带太平洋ENSO与热带印度洋海温距平以及与印度洋偶极子(Dipole)的关系,研究结果发现:在垂直最大温度距平曲面(MTAL)上,热带印度洋海温距平分布存在着与热带太平洋ENSO密切相关的Dipole现象,其中最大的相关在太平洋ENSO 超前印度洋Dipole一个月.但是,热带印度洋Dipole的分布与Saij定义的位置略有不同,为东北西南向,它们分别在6°-10°S、65°-75°E(西印度洋)和2°-6°N、85°-95°E(东印度洋),它是赤道印度洋的一个主要海温距平系统.另外,在热带印度洋东北部与ENSO相关的海温距平是一个上下不一致的系统,该海温距平并没有伸展到海面,从海面到20-50 m的浅薄水层,则为与赤道西南印度洋相同符号的海温距平分布.因此在海面,海温距平不存在与ENSO有关的Dipole现象,赤道印度洋Dipole只存在于次表层以下,这是赤道印度洋Dipole与ENSO不同之处.这种赤道东北印度洋表层与赤道西南印度洋表层同符号的海温距平现象,有可能是海气热力过程如感热过程造成的.热带印度洋Dipole的周期要小于El Nio,一般为1-6 a.     

一种基于EOF分析的迭代方法在业务预报中的应用

用传统的EOF分析迭代方法,利用国家气候中心CGCM模式夏季预报产品、前冬季的500 hPa高度场和SLP等实况资料,进行了2003～2005年我国夏季降水、温度预测的Downscaling试验对比.结果显示:该方法在解释温度预测时效果比降水预测的好,应用时截断阶数取2时的效果最好;另外,模式产品的平均Downscaling效果比前期冬季500 hPa高度场和SLP的Downscaling效果好,比这3年实际业务预报的平均效果高.     

REGIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES OVER CHINA*

The regional characteristics of precipitation anomalies of total summer precipitation of June,July and August and individual monthly precipitation are analyzed by using the method of Varimax EOF and correlation analysis.The data set used is the precipitation of a 5°Lat.×5°Long.spatial uniform network over China in the period of 1959 to 1994.The analysis of total summer precipitation shows that the most significant regional characteristic is the existence of negative correlation in precipitation anomalies between the lower reaches of the Changjiang River and the Huaihe River Valley(the LRCH region) and the middle reaches of the Huanghe River Valley(the MRH region),and between the LRCH region and South China.The precipitation anomaly over the Sichuan Basin is negatively correlated with that over eastern part of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and that over the LRCH region.The regional characteristics of summer precipitation anomalies in western China are that there exists negative correlation between the summer precipitation anomalies over the southern part of the central and eastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and that over its northern part.There also exists positive correlation between the southern part of the central and eastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and the eastern part of North China and the southern part of Northeast China.The above spatial correlation modes have significant periods of about 3 years and ten years.The analysis of the monthly precipitation shows that in June there exists positive correlation among the precipitation anomalies over the LRCH region,the eastern part of North China and Northeast China.In July,the precipitations in the MRH region and the LRCH region are negatively correlated.The regional characteristic of precipitation anomalies in August is very similar to that of the total summer precipitation anomalies.     

A Semi-Evolutive Partially Local Filter for Data Assimilation

The singular evolutive extended Kalman (SEEK) filter has been proposed recently by Pham et al. (1997) for data assimilation into numerical oceanic models. This filter has been applied in different realistic ocean frameworks and has provided satisfactory results ( Pham et al., 1997; Verron et al., 1998). However, the SEEK filter remains expensive in real operational assimilation. To reduce cost and obtain a better representativity, we introduce the idea ‘local correction basis'. Such basis however cannot be made to evolve according to the model without destroying its locality property. Therefore we shall keep this basis fixed and we augment it by a few global basis vectors which evolve. The resulting semi-evolutive partially local filter is much less costly to implement than the SEEK filter and yet can yield better results. In the first application, validation twin experiments are conducted in a realistic setting of the OPA model over the tropical Pacific Ocean.     

季节性波浪动力作用下南湾弧形岸滩泥沙横向输运特征

响应季节性波候作用的泥沙输运特征是研究弧形海滩地貌变化及港工建筑的重要内容。基于南湾弧形海滩实际测量的冬、夏各11条剖面高程变化资料,将其划分为低潮间带、低中潮带、中潮带、高潮间带、低冲流带、中冲流带及其海滩后滨等7带,在此基础上利用经验正交函数(EOF)方法对各个带的体积变化进行分析,结果表明:1)南湾弧形海滩的泥沙以单向输运为主,并具有季节性变化特征,其中冬季泥沙在东南浪作用下,自陆向海输运,夏季泥沙在西南浪作用下自海向陆输运;2)南湾弧形海滩的泥沙分别在高潮带与中潮带、低冲流带与中冲流带之间存在频繁的双向输运;3)南湾弧形海滩不同岸段泥沙的横向输运因岬角的遮蔽能力、地形以及波浪作用的方向而有所差异。     

基于TOPEX/Poseidon资料的南海海面高度场的时空特征分析

采用经验正交函数(EOF)分解方法，对TOPEX／Poseidon卫星高度计在南海获得的1992年10月到1999年9月约7a的海面高度观测资料进行分析，从而获得南海海面高度距平场典型的空间分布型态及其对应的时间变化特征。结果表明，南海海面高度距平场在空间上主要表现为两种典型的分布结构：(1)由于冬、夏季风反转造成海盆尺度的涡旋结构，这种分布结构对南海海面高度距平场的方差贡献达27．46％；(2)NE—SW即吕宋—越南反相双涡结构，其方差贡献达20．37％。这两个模态都明显反映了季风的反转以及季风结构所造成的影响。同时，对各空间典型场所对应的时间系数序列进行了傅立叶谱分析，结果表明南海海面高度距平场存在多种时间尺度的变化。     

黑潮区域海温异常与我国冬季气温和降水的关系

利用NOAA提供的延长重构（extended reconstructed）的月平均海表温度场等资料，采用相关分析和经验正交函数分解等方法，探讨冬季黑潮SSTA与我国冬季气温及降水的相关性，结果表明：冬季黑潮SSTA具有整体一致的空间变化特征，冬季黑潮区域海温与我国冬季气温存在较好的相关性，当黑潮海域海温升高（降低）时，会出现全国范围的升（降）温现象；冬季黑潮区域海温与我国冬季降水存在一定的相关性，具有明显的区域分布特征。     

云南汛期旱涝特征及成因分析

通过Z指数和旋转经验正交函数(REOF)分析等对云南省汛期(5~10月)降水作旱涝等级划分、型态分布和旱涝时空分布特征研究,发现云南省各地汛期降水具有一致性,1980年代以来,汛期旱涝有更频繁发生的趋势,东、西部和东南部地区为云南省全省旱涝多发区。对比分析了云南旱涝年的大气环流特征,发现两者显著差异:涝年500 hPa位势高度距平亚洲区域自西向东为“- -”波列结构,云南北部低槽活跃,反映出有强冷空气活动的环流背景,伊朗高压及青藏高压活跃,利于与副热带高压形成“两高辐合”的强降水形势;低层850 hPa水汽输送和OLR场特征揭示出低纬度热带海洋具有强烈的水汽输送机制;旱年则反之。并讨论了导致云南汛期旱涝的热带强迫源区主要位于孟加拉湾、南海—西太平洋,可能机制是热带强迫所激发的大尺度准定常波列的传播。     

Streamflow trends and hydrological response to climatic change in Tarim headwater basin

This paper has studied the change of streamflow and the impact of climatic vari-ability conditions on regional hydrological cycle in the headwater of the Tarim River Basin. This study investigates possible causes of observed trends in streamflow in an environment which is highly variable in terms of atmospheric conditions, and where snow and ice melt play an important role in the natural hydrological regime. The discharge trends of three head streams have a significant increase trend from 1957 to 2002 with the Mann–Kendall test. Complex time-frequency distributions in the streamflow regime are demonstrated especially by Morlet wavelet analysis over 40 years. The purpose is to ascertain the nature of climatic factors spatial and temporal distribution, involved the use of EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) to compare the dominant temperature, precipitation and evaporation patterns from normally climatic records over the Tarim’s headwater basin. It shows that the first principal component was dominated since the 1990s for temperature and precipitation, which identifies the significant ascending trend of spatial and temporal pattern characteristics under the con-dition of the global warming. An exponential correlation is highlighted between surface air temperature and mean river discharge monthly, so the regional runoff increases by 10%–16% when surface air temperature rises by 1℃. Results suggest that headwater basins are the most vulnerable environments from the point of view of climate change, because their wa-tershed properties promote runoff feeding by glacier and snow melt water and their funda-mental vulnerability to temperature changes affects rainfall, snowfall, and glacier and ice melt.