Wind-driven circulation in the subarctic north Pacific using altimeter data

Time-dependent wind-driven circulation in the subarctic north Pacific is investigated by using Topex/Poseidon (T/P) altimeter data and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) wind data for about 6 years. The first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of the T/Pderived sea level anomaly (SLA) without the variation related to the steric height change (SLA1) and the first EOF of the ECMWF-based wind stress curl fields represent basin-sized south-north oscillations and their time series agree well with a correlation of 0.49. They appear to express the spin-up and spin-down of the subarctic gyre. The third EOF of SLA (SLA3) and the second EOF of the wind stress curl are also related to the variation of the subarctic gyre. Though the correlation of their time series is 0.27, drastic changes in early winter coincide well. The two EOF pairs can be considered to mean that the SLA variation followed by the latitudinal migration of the Aleutian low is separated into two standing oscillation patterns, that is, the sea level variation combined with SLA1 and SLA3 expresses seasonal variations of the wind-driven circulation of the subarctic gyre. The interannual SLAs constructed by subtracting the SLA1 and SLA3 components clearly show trans-pacific westward propagation even in the high-latitudes. The time series of SLA1 is in agreement with that ofin situ SLAs measured with the tide gauge at Petropavlovsk (53-01N, 158-38E), which implies the possibility to monitor the subarctic circulation using tide gauge data.     

Origin of a trend in ECMWF wind analysis and its objective removal

The suitability of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) operational wind analysis for the period 1980–1991 for studying interannual variability is examined. The changes in the model and the analysis procedure are shown to give rise to a systematic and significant trend in the large scale circulation features. A new method of removing the systematic errors at all levels is presented using multivariate EOF analysis. Objectively detrended analysis of the three-dimensional wind field agrees well with independent Florida State University (FSU) wind analysis at the surface. It is shown that the interannual variations in the detrended surface analysis agree well in amplitude as well as spatial patterns with those of the FSU analysis. Therefore, the detrended analyses at other levels as well are expected to be useful for studies of variability and predictability at interannual time scales. It is demonstrated that this trend in the wind field is due to the shift in the climatologies from the period 1980–1985 to the period 1986–1991.     

Influence of spatial and temporal scales on statistical analyses of rainfall variability in the River Nile basin

In this study, empirical orthogonal function was applied to analyze rainfall variability in the Nile basin based on various spatio-temporal scales. The co-occurrence of rainfall variability and the variation in selected climate indices was analyzed based on various spatio-temporal scales. From the highest to the lowest, the cumulative amount of variance explained by the first two principal components (PCs) for any selected size of the spatial domain was obtained for the annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall series respectively. The variability in the annual rainfall of 1° × 1° spatial coverage explained by only the first PC was about 55% on average. However, this percentage reduced to about 40% on average across the study area when the size of the spatial domain was increased from 1° × 1° to 10° × 10°. The variation in climate indices was shown to explain rainfall variability more suitably at a regional than location-specific spatial scale. The magnitudes and sometimes signs of the correlation between rainfall variability and the variation in climate indices tended to vary from one time scale to another. These findings are vital in the selection of spatial and temporal scales for more considered attribution of rainfall variability across the study area.     

湖南省雷暴时空特征及变化趋势

利用1971-2010年湖南地面气象观测站观测资料,采用气候倾斜率、EOF和小波分析等方法,研究湖南雷暴日的气候特征。结果表明:湖南年雷暴日数较多,年际变化大,总体上呈线性下降趋势;雷暴季节性变化明显,春夏季水汽输送加强和不稳定能量增加,有利于雷暴天气的发生;雷暴存在明显的日变化差异,春季主要出现在上午,夏季午后对流发展旺盛,多出现在午后到傍晚;湖南雷暴日空间分布可分为全省一致型、南北差异型和"T"字型三种,其中全省一致型是雷暴分布的主要特点,与受到同一天气系统和共同的因子影响有关;在周期分布上,湖南省雷暴的发生存在2~4 a、5~6 a的振荡周期,10~12 a的振荡周期具有全域性。     

基于EOF分解的中期平均气温距平客观预报方法

本文通过将500 hPa高度、850 hPa温度、海平面气压的预报与历史要素场进行EOF分解,并假定EOF分解空间函数(即特征向量)是基本稳定的,建立以EOF分解主分量系列的时间系数、预报站点附近基本要素值的时间序列与预报站点平均气温距平的多元线性逐步回归预报方程,结合ECMWF集合预报数值产品,生成全国范围未来10 d平均气温距平客观预报产品投入业务应用,并采用同号率方法检验。结果表明,客观预报产品在检验时段内,同号率平均值为0.77,明显高于ECMWF集合预报模式2 m温度直接计算得出的同类产品同号率0.63;该客观预报产品不仅在分布范围上,同时在距平幅度上预报效果均较好。此外,相关分析也证明同号率方法在检验中期时效气温距平预报中有其合理性。     

华南前汛期降水变率的分析

利用华南１６个站１９５１～１９９６年逐年、月和候降水量资料,分析了前汛期（４～６月）总降水量及前汛期开始期的变化特征．结果表明,全区前汛期总降水量变化有相当好的一致性．以降水异常的空间分布基本可划分成６种类型．根据候降水量变化,逐年前汛期开始期大体可分成４类,即：全区偏早（１４年）;全区偏晚（１６年）;东部早西部晚（７年）和东部晚西部早（９年）．总之,无论是前汛期降水量还是前汛期开始日期都具有明显的年际变化和年代际变化特征     

Variation of the Kuroshio in the Tokara Strait Induced by Meso-Scale Eddies

Temporal variations of the Kuroshio volume transport in the Tokara Strait and at the ASUKA line are decomposed by phase-propagating Complex EOF modes of high-resolution sea surface dynamic topography (SSDT) field during the first tandem period of TOPEX/POSEIDON and ERS-1 (from October 1992 to December 1993). Both variations are dominated by a mode with nearly semi-annual cycle, which indicates a series of interactions between the Kuroshio and meso-scale eddies. Namely, northern part of a westward-propagating meso-scale eddy at 23°N is captured into the southern side of the Kuroshio at the south of Okinawa, then it moves downstream along the Kuroshio path passing the Tokara Strait, and reaches to the ASUKA line where it merges with another eddy propagating from the east at 30°N. The variation at the ASUKA line is, however, less dominated by this mode; instead, it includes the SSDT variations in the south of Shikoku and the east of Kyushu which would be directly affected by eddies from the east without passing the Tokara Strait. On the other hand, the same analysis for movements of the Kuroshio axis in the Strait indicates that they are governed by short-term variations locally confined to the Kuroshio in the East China Sea without being induced by meso-scale eddies. This results, however, seem to depend strongly on a time scale of interest. It is suggested that the long-term movements of the Kuroshio axis in the Strait would demonstrate coincidence with SSDT variation in the south of Japan.     

The effect of a submarine canyon on the river sediment dispersal and inner shelf sediment movements in southern Taiwan

This study examines the influence of a submarine canyon on the dispersal of sediments discharged by a nearby river and on the sediment movement on the inner shelf. The study area includes the head region of the Kao-ping Submarine Canyon whose landward terminus is located approximately 1 km seaward from the mouth of the Kao-ping River in southern Taiwan. Within the study area 143 surficial sediment samples were taken from the seafloor. Six hydrographic surveys along the axis of the submarine canyon were also conducted over the span of 1 yr. Three different approaches were used in the analysis of grain-size distribution pattern. They include (1) a combination of ‘filtering’ and the empirical orthogonal (eigen) function (EOF) analysis technique, (2) the McLaren Model, and (3) the ‘transport vector’ technique. The results of the three methods not only agree with one another, they also complement one another. This study reveals that the Kao-ping Submarine Canyon is relatively a stratified and statically stable environment. The hydrographic characteristics of the canyon display seasonal variability controlled primarily by the temperature field and the effluent of the Kao-ping River. The hydrographic condition and the bottom topography in the canyon suggest the propagation of internal tides during the flood season (summer) of the Kao-ping River. The submarine canyon acts as a trap and conduit for mud exchange between the Kao-ping River and offshore. Near the head of the canyon there is a region of sediment transport convergence. This region is also characterized by high mud abundance on the seafloor that coincides with the presence of high suspended sediment concentration (SSC) spots in the bottom nepheloid layer. Outside the submarine canyon on the shelf where the evidence of wave reworking is strong, the northwestward alongshore transport dominates over the southeastward transport, which is a common theme on the west coast in southern Taiwan.     

长江河口拦门沙地形变化的统计预报

根据1975－1985年长江河口拦门沙地形、长江河口河流和海洋水文泥沙等11年的实测资料，应用经验特征函数分析和现代控制理论方法对长江河口拦门沙地形变化进行系统辨识和预报。结果表明，长江河口拦门沙地形变化可以表述为三输入-三输出的CARMA一阶模型，根据这些模型对长江河口拦门沙地形变化进行预报，取得了与实测资料较一致的预报结果。     

Optimal Basis from Empirical Orthogonal Functions and Wavelet Analysis for Data Assimilation: Optimal Basis WADAi

Wavelet Analysis provides a new orthogonal basis set which is localized in both physical space and Fourier transform space. Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs), on the other hand, provide a global representation of data sets. Here we investigate the various ways in which one can combine these basis sets for optimal representation of data. EOFs represent the global large scale information and wavelet analysis are used to supplement this large scale information with local fine scale information. Here we begin to explore the application of these two basis sets for outputs from an Ocean General Circulation Model and we explore various applications, including data assimilation. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.