气象中使用统计检验的几个问题

针对目前在气象和气候要素变化分析中,对相关系数和合成分析使用统计检验存在的若干问题进行评论。认为对相关系数等统计检验,不应该称为“信度检验”,其检验水平也不应该称为“95％置信度”,而应该称为“显性检验”,“显性水平为5％”。     

利用RTK进行数字化测图的经验总结

利用RTK进行数字化测图具有速度快、精度高、费用省等特点,RTK测量结果经过简单处理即可导入到CASS测图软件中,从而快速地生产出规范的地形图来。根据利用RTK技术在约100多km^2区域1：2000数字化测图的生产实践,对利用RTK进行数字化测图的作业流程和工作经验进行了归纳总结,对所遇到的问题进行了分析,并提出了相应的解决方案。     

近60年洞庭湖水位演变态势研究

辨析洞庭湖历史水位演变态势对保护湖泊生态系统健康运转以及确保长江中下游防洪安全和水资源利用均至关重要。为了定量评估洞庭湖近60年来水位变化特征、程度及规律,基于洞庭湖鹿角、杨柳潭和南咀水文站1961—2020年逐日水位监测数据,应用Mann-Kendall检验法、小波分析法、累积距平法、滑动t检验法等方法对洞庭湖水位变化趋势性、周期性、突变性进行分析,进而采用IHA-RVA法综合评价洞庭湖突变年前后各站点水位改变度和整体水位改变度。研究结果表明:(1) 1961—2020年,鹿角站和杨柳潭站年均水位呈上升趋势,南咀站年均水位呈下降趋势;3个站点水位周期性变化较为明显,呈现4～5个时间尺度的周期变化规律,第一主周期为55～56年;鹿角站水位突变年份为1979、2003年,杨柳潭站水位突变年份为1978、2003年,南咀站水位突变年份为2003年,综合确定2003年为3个站点突变年份。(2)通过分析突变前后3个站点的水位、时间、频率、延时和改变率5组32个水位指标改变度,发现杨柳潭站水位改变度大于鹿角站和南咀站,鹿角、杨柳潭、南咀站的整体水位改变度分别为43%、48%、42%,均属于中度改...     

破冰结构角度对整冰失效模式的影响分析

破冰船破冰过程中整冰的失效模式对于冰载荷的估算十分重要。本文基于力学方法分析了破冰船破冰过程中破冰结构与整冰的相互作用,得到了影响冰体失效的冰力分量与破冰结构参数的表达关系,进而确认冰摩擦系数以及坡度角与冰体失效模式的关系。依据北极海冰的摩擦系数范围,指出当破冰船破冰结构坡度角小于70°时,冰体发生弯曲破坏,当坡度角处于70°—82°时,冰体同时发生弯曲和挤压失效,当坡度角大于82°时,冰体仅发生挤压失效,同时给出了不同失效模式下冰力的计算方法。     

热带太平洋海平面低频变化

本文选取ECMWF ORAS4再分析数据对1959-2015年热带太平洋海平面的低频变化进行了分析。热带太平洋海平面年际变化第一模态反映了ENSO爆发阶段的海平面变化,热带东、西太平洋变化反相,其时间序列与Niño3.4指数高度相关。海平面第二模态则体现了El Niño爆发前后热带太平洋暖水的输运过程。El Niño爆发前热带西太平洋暖水聚集的位置,以及爆发后暖水向赤道外输运的位置在两类El Niño事件中均有所不同。此外,ENSO的周期在近半个世纪发生了显著的年代际变化,这一变化与热带太平洋的年代际变化有关。热带太平洋的年代际变化对海平面趋势变化也有着显著的影响。卫星高度计观测到的近20年海平面的快速上升（下降）正是由20世纪90年代后热带太平洋频繁的位相转换引起的。     

秦皇岛入海河流的污染水平、排放特征及对褐潮暴发区生源要素的影响

为查明秦皇岛近海大面积褐潮连年暴发的成因,在2013年3—11月对该地区主要入海河流和沿岸褐潮暴发区的生源要素污染进行了连续调查研究。调查结果表明,所调查入海河流普遍为劣V类地表水,总氮(TN)超标严重,按照氮污染程度由高到低排列依次为大蒲河洋河戴河石河汤河东沙河。各河流中的碳、氮、磷、硅等污染物浓度在时间变化上没有统一规律。基于综合污染指数法的评价结果显示,大蒲河和洋河为重度污染,戴河和汤河从先前的轻度污染加重为中度污染。从污染物入海量上看,TN和化学需氧量(COD)是排放量最高的两种河源污染物,其中溶解态氮占TN的74.6%。在所调查河流中,洋河和大蒲河分别贡献了TN的38.2%和33.2%,同时大蒲河还贡献了75.8%的活性磷酸盐和37.7%的活性硅酸盐,而75.9%的COD来自汤河、洋河和大蒲河。秦皇岛河源污染物排放在时间上较为集中在6—9月的丰水期,但各河流单独的排放具有随机性,没有统一的季节性规律,表现出受人为调控影响明显的特点。秦皇岛沿岸褐潮暴发区的生源要素变化与河源污染物排放有显著性相关(P=0.05)。     

Modeling uncertainty in the three-dimensional structural deformation and stratigraphic evolution from outcrop data: Implications for submarine channel knickpoint recognition

Digital outcrop models help to constrain the interactions of stratigraphic and structural heterogeneity on ancient depositional systems. This study uses a stochastic approach that incorporates stratigraphic and structural modeling to interrogate the three-dimensional morphology of deep-water channel strata outcropping on Sierra del Toro in the Magallanes Basin of Chile. This approach considers the relative contributions, and associated uncertainty, of erosional downcutting versus post-depositional structural folding and small-offset faulting on the present-day configuration of the submarine channel complexes. Paleodepositional channel-belt gradients were modeled using a combination of three-dimensional visualization, stochastic surface modeling, palinspastic restoration, and decompaction modeling that are bound with errors constrained by stratigraphic and structural uncertainty. Modeling results indicate that at least 100 m of downcutting occurs over 6 km, and the resultant thalweg gradient of 64–125 m/km (decompacted) suggests that the Cerro Toro axial channel belt is an out-of-grade depositional system. Furthermore, the presence of steeper segments (100–175 m/km decompacted) suggests the preservation of one or more knickpoints that are similar in magnitude to tectonically-induced knickpoints on the modern seafloor. The interpreted knickpoints are correlated with a decreasing channel width-depth ratio and an increase of channel depth. These results indicate that stochastic surface modeling using digital outcrop models can constrain stratigraphic interpretations and post-depositional structural heterogeneity.     

2002-2014年间基于海平面变化的海洋增暖趋势研究

21世纪以来全球变暖进入停滞时期,研究表明,大量热量进入海洋深层是导致全球平均表面温度暂缓上升的主要原因。本文估计和研究了2002.4-2014.12间由热膨胀导致的海平面变化趋势,以此来探测海洋热含量的变化情况。研究使用GRACE重力卫星CSR RL05数据计算了全球海洋的水质量变化,并结合海平面异常数据,计算了由热量变化导致的海平面变化（Net SLA）。将Net SLA与Ishii温度数据计算的海洋热含量进行相关性分析后表明,Net SLA与海洋热含量存在高度相关性,相关系数最大值达0.95。考虑到海洋观测只能表现海洋上层2000m的热含量变化,而除去水质量变化的海平面变化则反映了整层海洋的热含量变化,是估计海洋增暖趋势快慢的有利工具。经计算得出,2002至2014年间南太平洋和南印度洋存在加速增暖趋势,而近年来南半球环状模的增强是导致其增暖的主要原因。     

Effect of image segmentation & voxel size on micro-CT computed effective transport & elastic properties

Digital rock technology is rapidly evolving interdisciplinary field with many promises, including fast turnaround times for core analysis, repeatable analysis, and multiphysics simulation. We study the impact of the image segmentation threshold and image voxel size on image-computed permeability, elastic moduli, and electrical conductivity. Improved quantitative understanding of such effects is critically important when comparing laboratory-measured rock properties with those computed on digital images of rocks. We analyze properties of over 500 binary microstructures (each of size 1024³ voxels) segmented using different segmentation algorithms. We find that uncertainty in computed rock properties, induced due to the choice of segmentation threshold, increases with coarsening of image voxels. Segmentation of the same rock, acquired with different voxels sizes, lead to small variations in porosity but induces relatively large variation in flow and electrical rock properties. This uncertainty is larger for rocks of lower porosity. We find that coarsening of image voxels also leads to rounding and smoothing of pore throats and a sharp decline in specific surface area which results in an increase in computed permeability. We propose simple models to remove the bias in rock properties when image-derived porosity is either overestimated or underestimated due to the choice of the segmentation threshold. This approach is particularly useful when comparing laboratory-measured rock properties to those derived from digital rocks since often the image calculated porosity and the laboratory-measured porosity are not the same. Even after such corrections, the impact of finite image voxel size would still need to be compensated.     

Optical dating and soil micromorphology at MacCauley's Beach,New South Wales,Australia

The ability to position landscapes in a context of time and space is a particular goal of Quaternary science research. The lack of context for dating samples published previously for MacCauley's Beach, an important site for the reconstruction of Australian sea levels, warranted a re‐evaluation of both the site stratigraphy and chronology. In this study, we combined optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of sedimentary quartz grains and soil micromorphology of the same samples to improve our understanding of the depositional history and chronology of the sediments. This combination allowed the contextualization of samples not only in time and space, but also in terms of their depositional histories. The latter is important in OSL dating, where pre‐, syn‐ and post‐depositional processes can all influence the accuracy and precision of the final age estimates. The sediment profile at MacCauley's Beach is made up of three major units. The basal mottled mud layer has undergone extensive pedogenesis since deposition, and only a minimum age of 14.7 ± 2.7 ka could be calculated. The overlying grey mud, with OSL ages from the bottom and top of the unit of 10.0 ± 0.7 and 7.7 ± 0.5 ka, respectively, shows evidence of soil structure collapse. This unit correspond to the onset of the mid‐Holocene sea‐level high stand for this region. The overlying sand layer was first deposited at 7.5 ± 0.4 ka, with deposition continuing beyond 6.6 ± 0.4 ka. Not only does the chronology presented constrain the timing of deposition (and the extent of post‐depositional processes) at MacCauley's Beach, but the methodological approach used here can be applied to any site to aid in the interpretation of formation processes and assess their influence on OSL age determination. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.