A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

关于国土资源数据共享分类的思考

数据共享分类是制定数据共享政策和数据资源开发利用规划的一项基础性工作。本文 提出国土资源数据共享分类的意义、原则和方法,探讨建立以数据共享分类为核心的 国土资源数据分类体系,以期为全面开展国土资源数据共享分类提供参考。     

三维遥感影像数据库系统的研究与实现

介绍了以3S技术为手段，采用目前较为先进的三层结构体系，使用Dephi开发工具，结合数据库技术、遥感技术，尝试以数据库SQL Server组织、存储、管理海量的中巴资源卫星遥感影像数据和新疆1：10万地形矢量数据，应用OpenGL技术实现海量三维遥感影像数据的三维立体显示浏览，进而完成全疆三维遥感影像库建库和三维显示及漫游．     

虚拟现实技术在矿物数字博物馆中的应用

详细介绍基于照片的虚拟现实技术在矿物数字博物馆中的实现方法和应用,并对VRML与基于照片的虚拟现实技术进行分析研究,进而对两种实现方法的发展方向和应用前景提出见解。     

电子地图的数据结构与模型

电子地图是集地图表达、数据处理、地图分析为一体的新型地图产品，其数据组织形式直接关系到电子地图的质量与性能。本文对几种数据结构和模型进行了分析、比较，并探讨了它们在电子地图领域的应用前景。     

利用DXF文件进行测量数据辅助处理

DXF文件是AUTOCAD与高级语言程序设计之间的接口文件,在测量工作中,充分利用DXF文件对测量数据进行辅助处理计算,可以达到事半功倍的效果.     

超级计算机上矩阵乘的并行计算与实现

数值预报系统中经常要用到矩阵乘运算。在分布式超级计算机 (如IBM-SP) 上, 矩阵乘的并行计算需要较多的数据移动, 有效的数据传输对矩阵乘的实现至关重要。该文讨论了两种矩阵乘的并行算法, 一种是基于矩阵的列-行划分方式, 一种是基于矩阵的网格划分方式。在IBM-SP计算机上的实验结果表明, 网格划分的矩阵乘并行算法通讯开销更小, 并行效率更高, 其并行加速比较列-行并行算法改善约10 %。     

Wind and Wave Data Analysis for the Aegean Sea - Preliminary Results

In this paper, a statistical analysis on wind and wave buoy measurements and wind and wave model forecasts obtained during a two-year period (1999-2001) is presented with reference to four characteristic near-shore sites of the Aegean Sea. The measurements are a main product of the "POSEIDON" system aiming at the monitoring and forecasting of the state of the Greek seas, operated by the National Centre for Marine Research (NCMR). Although the two-year period is rather short for a thorough analysis of the local wind and wave climate, yet the obtained results, presented herein for the first time, reveal some interesting features of the corresponding wave and wind characteristics. Comparisons between the measurements and the forecast results are also performed at the locations under consideration. It is found that (i) wind speeds obtained from the POSEIDON weather forecasting system are, in general, in agreement with the measurements, except for high wind speeds which are systematically underestimated, (ii) the WAM model can successfully follow the monthly and over year trend of the evolution of wind and wave characteristics, but face significant problems for efficient sea-state forecasting. Finally, the overall pattern of the wind/wave climate for the entire Aegean Sea as obtained from the models is presented by means of the spatial distribution of the mean annual wind and sea-state intensity.     

漾濞地震震源位置分析

采用一致的地震震相和台网布局，应用昆明数字地震台网资料，对2002年月1月4日－1月7日的漾濞地震及序列作进一步核定，得出了更精确的地震震源位置，并作出三维空间图。     

数字化形变资料分析处理流程

根据形变数字化数据和前兆特征。主要对EIS000中提供的数据处理及异常判定方法进行了使用分析。针对固体潮成分和非固体潮成分。提出了在日常分析和会商中较为适用的方法和步骤。