生长曲线在地震活动性分析中的应用

文中把“生长曲线”引入地震活动性分析中,介绍了两种类型的生长曲线,应用甘培茨曲线模拟了新疆自１８８２年开始至今的地震活动。结果表明,曲线能够从数学角度较好地描述地震活动期的发生过程,并在地震活动性分析中有较广泛的应用前景。     

长江下荆江裁弯对东 南洞庭湖区的淤积分析

本文分析了下荆江系统裁弯前后入湖和出湖水、沙量的变化规律:分析了东、南洞庭湖淤积量的变化和淤积部位的变化,以及东、南洞庭湖的淤积趋势。     

溢油模型与SSD曲线法评估渤海溢油事件的海洋生态风险

海上溢油事故不仅会造成大面积的海水污染,还会对海洋生态系统造成严重破坏。为此,采用有效的方法评估溢油事件引起的生态风险,对防灾减灾工作具有重要意义。本文以发生于2011年6月的渤海蓬莱19-3溢油事故为例,使用两种溢油模型(GNOME轨迹模型与ADIOS风化模型)模拟了事故初期油膜的运动轨迹与风化过程。基于模拟结果,利用CAFE模型(Chemical Aquatic Fate and Effect)拟合了相应的物种敏感度分布(species sensitivity distribution,SSD)曲线,首次结合三种模型工具对渤海进行了生态风险评估研究。结果显示,随着原油的持续泄漏,其主要有毒物质(苯系物)浓度达到了1 300μg/L,超过了1%危害浓度值(Hazard Concentration 1%,HC1)。结果表明,在事故初期所产生的生态风险不可忽视,并且风险(多个物种的潜在影响分数)会在96 h内以每日约1%的趋势增长。本文结合溢油运动轨迹和SSD曲线,绘制出了事故期间的生态风险时空分布图。经过定量化的评估,首次发现事故的整体生态风险随时间呈近似二次函数增长,同溢油轨迹一样,向西北方向扩散,越靠近溢油源的海域生态风险概率越高。     

海面阻力系数的流体力学研究

利用相似理论的方法 ,把解决湍流问题的尼古拉兹曲线引入到风应力的计算中。阐明了决定海面阻力系数的关键因素是海浪的平均波高及摩擦层厚度 ,并推出了它们之间的关系式。     

古尔班通古特沙漠沙丘主要灌木的种群数量动态

种群数量动态的研究是认识种群的生存现状及发展动态的前提。通过对古尔班通古特沙漠固定沙丘、半固定沙丘和流动沙丘上主要固沙灌木的样地调查,分析了固沙灌木的年龄结构,建立了3种沙丘上固沙灌木的静态生命表和存活曲线。结果表明：（1）固沙灌木的存活个体数呈逐级递减的趋势,幼龄个体占有很高的比例;固定沙丘上梭梭（Haloxylon ammodendron）呈现Ⅰ型存活曲线,种群退化,白梭梭（Haloxylon persicum）呈现Ⅱ型存活曲线,种群稳定;（2）半固定沙丘上白梭梭呈Ⅱ型存活曲线,种群相对稳定;沙拐枣（Calligonum mongolicum）和油蒿（Artemisia ordosica）均呈现Ⅰ型存活曲线,种群处于退化状态;（3）流动沙丘上沙拐枣呈现Ⅲ型存活曲线,种群有较大的增长潜力,白梭梭呈现出Ⅱ型存活曲线,种群相对稳定,油蒿呈现出Ⅰ型存活曲线,种群处于不稳定的退化状态。     

考虑防灾减灾能力的洪涝灾害灾损率曲线构建——以里下河地区的李中镇为例

作为恢复力的重要内容之一,承灾体的防灾减灾能力是评估灾害经济损失的重要参考因素。根据在里下河地区李中镇调研所得数据,绘制初始灾损率散点图,构建了初始灾损率曲线;然后考虑防灾减灾能力因素,绘制实际的灾损率散点图和拟合曲线。结果显示：①在0.05的显著性水平下,住宅区、工业区、商业区、公共设施区和农业区五类承灾体财产的淹没水深与灾损率均存在乘幂函数关系。②考虑防灾减灾能力因素后,洪涝灾害对不同承灾体的经济损失有所减少。住宅区财产在淹没水深3 m时经济损失减少了34%,工业区在2 m时经济损失减少了17%,商业区在3 m时经济损失减少了24%,公共设施部门在2 m时经济损失减少了11%。防灾减灾能力因素对住宅区洪涝灾害经济损失的影响更加明显。本文作为有关灾损率曲线研究的有益补充,结果可为类似地区城镇的防灾减灾决策及灾害风险管理提供参考。     

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Catastrophic Debris Flows through Numerical Simulation

The risk assessment is not only the one of the most effective soft measures in natural hazard prevention, but also is the base of hazard risk management. On account of the specificity of various elements at risk and debris flow mechanism, the theoretical system and technical procedure of debris flow quantitative risk assessment for buildings and roads were established in the mountaineous area of Southwest China, which included three sections: ①To represent debris flow hazard quantitatively using the intensity index IDF through FLO-2D simulation; ②To build debris flow physical vulnerability curve based on the loss exceedance-probability from Qipan gully debris flow case; ③To quantify the expected loss of the important elements at risk based on their database after setting the future debris flow scenarios. The case study of Yangling catchment indicated that the responding mechanism between elements at risk and debris flow physical mechanism was described quantitatively by this quantitative risk assessment system, which can contribute to the construction planning and prevention measure making in the southwestern mountainous area.     

Effects of coarse-grained material on hydraulic properties and shear strength of top soil

Sidewalk failures associated with top soil of low shear strength are a common problem in urban areas. Mixing top soil with granite chips can be used to increase its permeability and shear strength. The effects of mixing granite chips with top soils on the hydraulic properties and shear strength under saturated and unsaturated conditions were investigated in this study. The results showed that the mixing top soils with granite chips caused changes in several key parameters of the soil–water characteristic curve (e.g., the air-entry value, the residual matric suction, and the residual volumetric water content) and the unsaturated permeability of the top soils. The saturated permeability and shear strength of the soil mixture increased with increasing content of granite chips.     

Evaluation of karstic aquifers contribution to streams by the statistical analysis of recession curves

Karstic aquifers significantly contribute to streams in most of Turkey’s river basins, so studies on karst water resources have great importance for Turkey. Karstic aquifer contributions are generally emerging at several locations near the river bed and are not readily measured by direct hydrometric methods. In this study, the extent of karstic aquifer contributions to a stream will be investigated by the statistical analysis of recession coefficients of recession curves. Six stream gauging stations on different streams in the western Mediterranean region of Turkey are selected. Recession periods of the streams are simulated by exponential and quadratic recession curve models. Recession coefficient series of the stream gauging stations are statistically investigated. The comparison of various statistical parameters shows that the recession coefficient series are fairly related to the karstic aquifer contributions. Especially, the measure of spread parameters, standard deviation and interquartile range of recession coefficient series are related to the extent of the karstic aquifer contributions to streams.     

常用软土路堤沉降预测方法的评价与应用

在软土地基上修筑路堤,最突出的问题是路堤的稳定与沉降。为掌握软土路堤在施工期中的变形动态,就必须进行动态观测和沉降预测,一方面保证路堤在施工中的安全与稳定,另一方面能正确预测工后沉降。而众多的预测方法给实际应用选择带来一定的困难,如何更科学合理地选择预测方法是工程技术人员面临的难题。就几种常用的曲线拟合预测方法的适用性进行分析,以期针对具体工程选取更为合适的预测方法,有效控制工后沉降并保证路堤施工和运营期的安全。