Analyse fréquentielle régionale des précipitations journalières maximales annuelles au Québec,Canada / Regional frequency analysis of annual maximum daily precipitation in Quebec,Canada

Abstract

Abstract A complete regional analysis of daily precipitations is carried out in the southern half of the province of Quebec, Canada. The first step of the regional estimation procedure consists of delineating the homogeneous regions within the area of study and testing for homogeneity within each region. The delineation of homogeneous regions is based on using L-moment ratios. A simulation-based testing of statistical homogeneity allows one to verify the inter-site variability. The second step of the procedure deals with the identification of the regional distribution and the estimation of its parameters. The General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was identified as an appropriate parent distribution. This distribution has already been recommended by several previous research studies for regional frequency analysis of precipitation extremes. The parameters of the GEV distribution are estimated based on the computation of the regional L-CV, L-C_S and the mean of annual maximal daily precipitations. The third step consists of the estimation of precipitation quantiles corresponding to various return periods. The final procedure allows for the estimation of these quantiles at sites where no precipitation information is available. The use of a jack-knife resampling procedure with data from the province of Quebec allows one to demonstrate the robustness and efficiency of the regional estimation procedure. Values of the root mean square error were below 10% for a return period of 20 years, and 20% for a return period of 100 years.     

Flood events and flood risk assessment in relation to climate and land-use changes: Saint-François River,southern Québec,Canada

Abstract

In the current context of climatic variability, it is important to quantify the impact on the environment. This study deals with an analysis of climatic data and land-use changes in terms of the impacts on flood recurrence based on multisource data. The study area covers the mouth of the Saint-François River (southern Québec, Canada), where spring floods and ice jams are a recurring problem. The flood frequency analysis shows an increase in flooding over recent decades, attributable to an increase in winter temperatures that has the effect of causing ice jams earlier in the year. Regarding land-use changes, a small decrease in agricultural surface areas is observed, from 53% to 39%, along with increases in forest and urban surface areas from 27% to 38% (forest) and 3% to 5% (urban) between 1928 and 2005. In a context of continuing climate warming, more pronounced inter-annual variations are to be expected along with a higher incidence of flooding.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Ouellet, C., Saint-Laurent, D. and Normand, F., 2012. Flood events and flood risk assessment in relation to climate and land-use changes: Saint-François River, southern Québec, Canada. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (2), 313–325.     

加拿大内陆水的保护

Contrary to general international perception, Canada does not have an unlimited supply of freshwater. However, because Canada has a small population, it does have a generous water allocation on a per capita basis. Nor is Canada immune from water quality problems:its cold continental climate, urbanization and industrial activities all contribute to water quality concerns and deterioration. Generally, the authority to manage water in Canada is held by the country''s provincial governments. The Great Lakes basin is the world''s largest freshwater ecosystem and is located in Canada''s industrial heartland. Water issues, starting with phosphorus in the 1960''s, created international headlines. In the 1970''s toxics became the predominant issue and this led to the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement which established the ecosystem approach to water quality management. This approach is now the standard approach to water quality management and has been successfully applied to a number of other lake and river ecosystems in Canada. While there have been improvements in the water quality of the Great Lakes much remains to be done on toxic elimination and the large contaminant stores in the sediments. Atmospheric deposition has become a significant source of chemicals from outside the basin The Canadian prairies, the agricultural heartland of Canada, is one major ecozone that has not been selected to have current and potential water quality problems examined by a federal government program. Both the quantity and quality of water in this region are potentially significant factors limiting economic diversification and sustainable development in this vast and ecologically disturbed region.     

A quantitative assessment of snow shielding effects on surface exposure dating from a western North American 10Be data compilation

To better assess the spatiotemporal variations of the snow shielding effect on surface exposure dating, we compiled a dataset of 1341 ¹⁰Be ages from alpine moraines and glacially eroded valleys across western North America, and conducted a sensitivity test with both modern and time-integrated snow data covering the same region. Our analyses reveal significant differences in snow shielding both across our geographic domain and through time. In our time-integrated experiments we find snow-based exposure age corrections as low as 3.5% in the Great Basin region and high as 28.4% in the Pacific Northwest for samples dating to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) when no wind-sweeping is assumed. As demonstrated with our time-varying snow conditions with a global climate model and a positive degree day model, modern snow conditions across western North America cannot account for the varying snow patterns under large scale climate shifts since the LGM. The snow-based exposure age corrections from the modern data differ from those calculated by our time-varying model by up to 17% across our model domain. In addition, we find that the ¹⁰Be ages calculated under two end-member scenarios regarding wind-sweeping effects, specifically whether boulders were shielded only when the total snow accumulation exceeded boulder heights or were always shielded when the snow was present, can differ by ∼7.6% on average for LGM aged samples. Our analyses provide a model-based estimates of the spatiotemporal variability and complexity of snow shielding effects on surface exposure dates across western North America and highlight the need to consider snow depth variations both spatially and temporally when conducting surface exposure dating in terrains where snowfall accumulation is significant.     

Significance of ichnofossils to genetic stratigraphy--Examples from the Cretaceous of Alberta, Canada

Trace fossils represent both sedimentological and paleontological entities, representing a unique blending of potential environmental indicators in the rock record. Trace fossils and trace fossil suites can be employed effectively to aid in the recognition of various discontinuity types and to assist in their genetic interpretation. Ichnology may be employed to resolve surfaces of stratigraphic significance in two main ways: 1) through the identification of discontinuities using substrate-controlled ichnofacies, and 2) through careful analysis of vertical softground (penecontemporaneous) ichnologic successions (analogous to facies successions). Ichnological analysis is a valuable tool in genetic stratigraphic studies. Integrating the data derived from substrate-controlled ichnofacies with paleoecological data from vertical ichnologic successions greatly enhances the recognition and interpretation of a wide variety of stratigraphic surfaces. When this is coupled with conventional facies analysis and sequence stratigraphy, a powerful approach to the interpretation of the rock record is generated.     

Glacier change in Garibaldi Provincial Park, southern Coast Mountains, British Columbia, since the Little Ice Age

Fluctuations of glaciers during the 20th century in Garibaldi Provincial Park, in the southern Coast Mountains of British Columbia, were reconstructed from historical documents, aerial photographs, and fieldwork. Over 505 km², or 26%, of the park, was covered by glacier ice at the beginning of the 18th century. Ice cover decreased to 297 km² by 1987–1988 and to 245 km² (49% of the early 18th century value) by 2005. Glacier recession was greatest between the 1920s and 1950s, with typical frontal retreat rates of 30 m/a. Many glaciers advanced between the 1960s and 1970s, but all glaciers retreated over the last 20 years. Times of glacier recession coincide with warm and relatively dry periods, whereas advances occurred during relatively cold periods. Rapid recession between 1925 and 1946, and since 1977, coincided with the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), whereas glaciers advanced during its negative phase (1890–1924 and 1947–1976). The record of 20th century glacier fluctuations in Garibaldi Park is similar to that in southern Europe, South America, and New Zealand, suggesting a common, global climatic cause. We conclude that global temperature change in the 20th century explains much of the behaviour of glaciers in Garibaldi Park and elsewhere.     

Palynological evidence for Pennsylvanian (Late Carboniferous) vegetation change in the Sydney Coalfield,eastern Canada

The palynology of clastic samples from seven stratigraphical levels in the late Moscovian Sydney Mines Formation, exposed along the shore at Bras d'Or, Nova Scotia, has been investigated. Most of the samples were from roof shales of major coals; the one sample that was not yielded a much higher proportion of pollen derived from extra‐basinal vegetation. The four stratigraphically lower roof shale samples yielded essentially similar palynological spectra, with 39 ± 4% lycophytes, 9 ± 4% sphenophylls, 23 ± 4% tree‐ferns, 12 ± 4% other ferns and 5 ± 3% cordaites. The palynology of the upper part of the investigated succession suggests a shift in vegetation towards one favouring more marattialean tree‐ferns, cordaites and conifers, and fewer lycophytes. This correlates with changes in drainage patterns as the alluvial plain migrated seawards and thus changed water tables. No evidence was found to suggest significant climate change at this time. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

AGRICULTURAL EXPANSION IN NORTHERN ALBERTA

ABSTRACT. Since the early 1980s some 40,000 acres of forested land have been cleared and placed under cultivation by Mennonite farmers near the small town of La Crete in northern Alberta's Peace River district. This incipient agriculture has been accompanied by dramatic increases in road building and home construction and by the establishment of churches and schools. The principal force behind the acquisition of land has been a desire of families to have homes in rural areas where they can enjoy lifestyles based on traditional Mennonite values. Because most new farmers cannot earn a living in the district from agriculture alone, they must rely on the wood industries to supplement their incomes. Demand is building for the province to open still more land, but disagreements between the government and the Mennonite community about the most appropriate location for developing new farms has put further expansion on hold until the conflict can be resolved.     

Estimating Sea-Level Allowances for Atlantic Canada using the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC

Abstract

Sea-level allowances at 22 tide-gauge sites along the east coast of Canada are determined based on projections of regional sea-level rise for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) and on the statistics of historical tides and storm surges (storm tides). The allowances, which may be used for coastal infrastructure planning, increase with time during the twenty-first century through a combination of mean sea-level rise and the increased uncertainty of future projections with time. The allowances show significant spatial variation, mainly a consequence of strong regionally varying relative sea-level change as a result of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). A methodology is described for replacement of the GIA component of the AR5 projection with global positioning system (GPS) measurements of vertical crustal motion; this significantly decreases allowances in regions where the uncertainty of the GIA models is large. For RCP8.5 with GPS data incorporated and for the 1995–2100 period, the sea-level allowances range from about 0.5?m along the north shore of the Gulf of St. Lawrence to more than 1?m along the coast of Nova Scotia and southern Newfoundland.