基于IGGⅢ稳健估计法在大坝沉降监测中的应用

了解大坝变形,发现大坝安全隐患是人们所关注和关心的,而大坝沉降的变形监测数据是判断大坝是否变形最直接、最重要的依据。因此,获取监测数据并进行有效深入的分析及处理,不仅是相关规范的要求,更是反映了大坝现状的重要信息。本文比较了最小二乘法和IGGⅢ稳健估计法在处理12期大坝沉降数据过程中的优劣,由结果可知,IGGⅢ稳健估计法更能克服单一状态估计算法不能抗拒粗差的缺陷,同时具备精度高、运算速度快等优点。     

双线铁路CRTSⅢ型板式无砟轨道布板设计系统研制

深入研究了CRTSⅢ型板式(简称Ⅲ型)无砟轨道布板设计关键技术,设计并研制了基于C/S(客户端/服务器)结构模式的Ⅲ型无砟轨道布板设计系统,可以实现双线铁路并行等高段的布板计算并获得轨道板各承轨台轨顶中心(简称承轨台定位点)的线路空间三维坐标信息。文中阐述了双线铁路Ⅲ型无砟轨道布板设计关键技术和系统设计实现流程,对我国Ⅲ型无砟轨道技术体系向智能化发展具有一定借鉴和参考意义。     

两类El Ni?o事件对我国西南地区冬季降水的影响

采用1960~2014年西南地区93个站的逐月降水资料以及NCEP/NCAR再分析月平均资料,分析了东部型El Ni?o（EP El Ni?o）和中部型El Ni?o（CP El Ni?o）对我国西南地区冬季降水的不同影响。结果表明,EP ElNi?o年冬季和CP El Ni?o事件中1994/1995年、2002/2003年冬季,我国西南地区受异常偏东风影响,获得来自孟加拉湾和南海的水汽供应。同时,西南地区存在明显的幅合上升运动,上升运动异常增强,对流加强,导致西南地区冬季降水偏多;而CP El Ni?o事件中1968/1969年、1977/1978年,2004/2005年、2009/2010年冬季,我国西南地区受异常西北风影响,来自孟加拉湾和南海的水汽减少。同时,西南地区存在明显的幅散下沉运动,上升运动异常减弱,对流减弱,导致西南地区冬季降水偏少。     

枝管藻多糖对久效磷暴露水体中鱼类保护作用的研究

以金鱼(Carassius auratus)体内超氧化物歧化酶(Superoxide dismutase，SOD)活力、乙酰胆碱酯酶(Acetylcholinesteras，AChE)活力变化为指标，观察了枝管藻多糖对久效磷暴露的水体中鱼类生理功能的影响。结果表明：用枝管藻多糖灌胃鲫鱼15d，枝管藻多糖能显著降低久效磷对鱼类体内SOD活力的诱导和有效阻止久效磷对鱼类中枢神经系统AChE活性的抑制，具有拮抗久效磷农药对鱼类毒害的作用。     

Analyses of insoluble residues of altered organic matter by C CP/MAS nuclear magnetic resonance

Alteration phenomena affecting organic matter during diagenesis frequently lead to the formation of residues almost insoluble. Data from ¹³C CP/MAS nuclear magnetic resonance analyses (NMR) of these residues have been compared to those obtained by other techniques such as elemental analysis, infrared spectroscopy, Rock-Eval pyrolysis or gas chromatography. Three examples of alteration phenomena have been chosen: the artificial and natural oxidation of coals, the biodegradation of oils and solid bitumens, and the radiolytic degradation of organic matter. NMR results and those obtained by other techniques converge on similar general conclusions. Additional information can be extracted from ¹³C NMR data: e.g. definition of the phenol/carbonyl ratio, transformation of the aromatic network and aromatic ring substitution. These comparisons are good evidence for the reliability of non-destructive analysis of the insoluble fraction of altered organic material by ¹³C CP/MAS NMR.     

Mechanistic Study and Kinetic Determination of Cu(Ⅱ) by the Catalytic Kinetic Spectrophotometric Method

A highly sensitive and selective catalytic kinetic spectrophotometric method for the determination of Cu(Ⅱ) is proposed. It is based on the catalytic effect of Cu(Ⅱ) on the oxidation of glutathione(GSH) by potassium hexacyanoferrate(Ⅲ) in acidic medium at 25.0℃. The reaction is monitored spectrophotometrically by measuring the decrease in absorbance of oxidant at 420 nm using the fix-time method. Under the optimum conditions, the proposed method allows the determination of Cu(Ⅱ) in a range of 0-35.0 ng m L^-1 with good precision and accuracy and the limit of detection is down to 0.04 ng m L^-1. The relative standard deviation(RSD) is 1.02%. The reaction orders with respect to each reagent are found to be 1, 1/2, and 1/2 for potassium hexacyanoferrate(Ⅲ), glutathione and Cu(Ⅱ) respectively. On the basis of these values, the rate equation is obtained and the possible mechanism is established. Moreover, few anions and cations can interfere with the determination of Cu(Ⅱ). The new proposed method can be successfully used to the determination of Cu(Ⅱ) in fresh water samples and seawater samples. It is found that the proposed method has fairly good selectivity, high sensitivity, good repeatability, simplicity and rapidity.     

基于IGGⅢ的地理加权回归模型研究

针对离群值存在时地理加权回归模型拟合效果较差的问题,本文提出了基于IGGⅢ的地理加权回归方法。核心是采用IGGⅢ方案中的权函数计算权重矩阵,将权因子用于地理加权回归参数估计模型。利用模拟数据和真实数据与GWR、ACV-GWR进行对比试验,以MSE、MAE和R²作为指标对结果进行评价。模拟试验结果显示,IGGⅢ-GWR比GWR性能分别提升了51.14%、23.77%、28.4%,比ACV-GWR分别提升了49.96%、22.57%、27.1%;真实试验结果显示,IGGⅢ-GWR比GWR性能分别提升了12.65%、7.44%、0.37%,比ACV-GWR分别提升了11.85%、6.96%、0.34%。试验结果表明,基于IGGⅢ的地理加权回归可提高模型的抗差能力,拟合效果更好。     

1988—2009年中国海波候、风候统计分析

利用高精度、高时空分辨率、长时间序列的CCMP(Cross-Calibrated,Multi-Platform)风场,驱动国际先进的第三代海浪模式WAVEWATCH-Ⅲ(WW3),得到中国海1988年1月～2009年12月的海浪场。对中国海的波候(风候)进行精细化的统计分析,分析了海表风场和浪场的季节特征、极值风速与极值波高、风力等级频率和浪级频率、海表风速和波高的逐年变化趋势,结果显示:(1)中国海的海浪场与海表风场具有较好的一致性,尤其是在DJF(December,January,February)期间;海表风速和波高在MAM(March,April,May)期间为全年最低,在DJF期间达到全年最大;MAM和JJA(June,July,August)期间,中国海大部分海域的波周期在3～5.5s,SON(September,October,November)和DJF期间为4.5～6.5s。(2)中国海极值风速、极值波高的大值区分布于渤海中部海域、琉球群岛附近海域和台湾以东广阔洋面、台湾海峡、东沙群岛附近海域、北部湾海域、中沙群岛南部海域。(3)吕宋海峡在MAM、SON、DJF期间均为6级以上大风和4m以上大浪的相对高频海域,JJA期间,6级以上大风的高频海域位于中国南半岛东南部海域,4m以上大浪主要出现在10°N以北。(4)在近22a期间,中国海大部分海域的海表风速、有效波高呈显著性逐年线性递增趋势,风速递增趋势约0.06～0.15m.s-1.a-1,波高递增趋势约0.005～0.03m.a-1。     

最小二乘法估算Pearson-Ⅲ型分布参数的改进

Pearson-Ⅲ曲线分布在气象、水文和农业等领域有广泛的应用,其概率密度函数包含形状参数\begin{array}{c}\left(\alpha \right)\end{array}、尺度参数\begin{array}{c}\left(\beta \right)\end{array}和起始值\begin{array}{c}\left({\alpha }_0\right)\end{array}3个待估计参数。应用Pearson-Ⅲ分布来估算强度的关键在于这3个参数估算的精度。由于原有最小二乘法在估算参数时未考虑各参数的有效区间,参数\begin{array}{c}{\alpha }_0\end{array}可能小于0,并导致估算强度出现负值,从而使雨强、水速、水位等强度估算出现异常值。经理论推导证明,若Pearson-Ⅲ概率密度函数中的参数\begin{array}{c}{\alpha }_0\end{array}非负,则估算出的强度值不会出现负值。以该推导为基础,提出了一种改进的Pearson-Ⅲ分布三参数估算算法。首先根据最小二乘法估算迭代计算一系列参数组合;然后按离差平方和的大小排列各组参数;接着利用各组参数分别计算\begin{array}{c}{\alpha }_0\end{array}值,过滤使\begin{array}{c}{\alpha }_0\end{array}小于0的参数组合;最后在剩下的参数中选取离差平方和最小的一组作为最优参数。以估算暴雨风险值作算法测试实验,结果表明改进算法模拟得到的\begin{array}{c}{\alpha }_0\end{array}值始终大于等于0,估算出的暴雨风险值均在合理范围之内。对比改进算法与传统算法的参数分布拟合检验结果,发现改进算法能使更多的气象站点通过了置信度为0.05的分布拟合检验。因此,利用改进后的算法估算出的Pearson-Ⅲ概率密度函数参数更合理,且强度估算结果更准确,对编制城市暴雨强度公式有一定的参考价值。     

Ocean wave parameters retrieved directly from compact polarimetric SAR data

We aim to directly invert wave parameters by using the data of a compact polarimetric synthetic aperture radar(CP SAR) and validate the effectiveness of ocean wave parameter retrieval from the circular transmit/linear receive mode and π/4 compact polarimetric mode. Relevant data from the RADARSAT-2 fully polarimetric SAR on the C-band were used to obtain the compact polarimetric SAR images, and a polarimetric SAR wave retrieval algorithm was used to verify the sea surface wave measurements. Usin...