重大公共卫生事件中的舆情分析方法研究——以新冠肺炎疫情为例

2019年12月以来,新冠肺炎疫情迅速席卷全球,截至北京时间2020年5月10日16时40分,全球累计确诊病例4 115 662例,已成为全球聚焦的主要话题.微博等社交媒体平台成为此次疫情相关信息传播的重要渠道和公众情绪的有效传感器之一.对微博信息进行深入挖掘分析不但能研判舆情特点,更有助于政府对公众的情绪进行针对性疏...     

一种耦合LSTM算法和云模型的疫情传播风险预测模型

模拟传染病时空传播、定量评估疫情风险对科学防控、精准施策具有重要的现实意义。本文融合多源时空数据,构建了耦合LSTM算法和云模型的疫情传播风险预测模型。该模型首先基于GIS和LSTM算法构建疫情空间演变模拟模型,通过学习历史疫情数据中的规律,以1 km×1 km为空间尺度、天为时间尺度模拟传染病时空传播过程。其次,基于模拟传染病例数据和疫情传播时空影响因素构建风险评价指标,应用云模型和自适应策略构建疫情风险评估模型,实现多空间尺度的疫情风险评价。在实证研究阶段,应用该模型对北京2020年6月份突发COVID-19疫情空间演变过程进行模拟和风险评估,并引入常规机器学习模型作比较验证。结果表明：应用于疫情时空传播模拟,相较其它常规的机器学习模型,考虑时序关系的LSTM模型的模拟精度更高（MAE为0.00261）,拟合度更好（R-square为0.9455）;耦合模型不仅能充分考虑传染源因素、天气因素、疫情扩散因素及疫情防御因素对疫情风险传播的影响,反映风险演变趋势,还能快速量化区域风险等级,实现不同空间分辨率下的疫情风险评估。因此,基于LSTM算法和云模型的耦合模型可有效预测疫情的传播风险,同时,也为传染病时空传播建模与风险评估提供了方法参考。     

适应与绿色复苏：应对新冠疫情和气候复合风险的协同

作为全球性危机,新冠疫情和气候危机在影响范围、效果、原因等方面的相似之处可能使两种危机的效果叠加,而二者的不同之处又可能导致应对政策的相互干扰,带来更加严峻的复合风险。文中全面分析了全球面临的新冠疫情和气候危机的复合风险,识别了新冠疫情对全球气候变化适应进程的影响,以及适应在各国疫后绿色复苏计划中的地位。研究表明,目前全球的绿色复苏中较少考虑适应,而绿色复苏为同时恢复经济和增强气候恢复力提供了机会,如果能在绿色复苏中考虑变革性适应,将显著提升社会经济系统对气候变化等冲击的抵御能力与恢复力,实现疫情后更持续和更有韧性的经济发展。     

小质量AGB星热脉冲阶段氟的核合成

本文计算并讨论了当13C以渐进注入方式进入氦燃烧壳层时，19F在小质量AGB星热脉冲中的核合成问题．采用小质量AGB星热脉冲的氢氦混合燃烧模型，中子源为13C（a,n）16O，质子则是脉冲开始时从氢燃烧壳层卷入的．对丰度的数值计算结果表明，在小质量AGB星的热脉冲中，19F是能够有效合成的，有效合成的温度T的范围为1．8≤D＜2．8（T8=T/108K）．采用小质量AGB星的挖掘模型，计算了AGB星大气中氟、氧等元素丰度的变化，较好地拟会了观测结果．对中子源的双脉冲机制，本文亦做了初步探讨．     

Vereisung und Meeresspiegel

GLACIATION AND SEALEVEL — EARLY RESEARCH: Changes of sealevel positions depend on vertical crustal movements, different distributions of oceanic water masses and variations of ocean water volume. In spite of the fact that C. Maclaren explained the relations between the fluctuations of continental ice masses and ocean water volumes correctly in 1842, only two years after the classical paper of L. Agassiz, it took half a century to reach global agreement on the matter. Some examples of the different ways of research may illustrate the complex treatment of the problem, the fact that correct approaches were forgotten but wrong ideas were discussed for decades and the influence of geological authorities. However, some problems remain open even now, such as the exact dating of Pleistocene and Holocene sealevel fluctuations in different geological settings, or the influence of a changing geoid.

     

On the role of dust in the lunar ionosphere

Radio occultation measurements from the Soviet Luna 19 mission suggest that electron concentrations above the sunlit lunar surface can be significantly higher than that expected from either the photo-ionization of exospheric neutrals or any other well-known process. These measurements were used to infer the electron column concentrations above the lunar limb as a function of tangent height, which surprisingly indicated peak concentrations of ∼10³ cm⁻³ at ∼5 km altitude. It has been speculated that electrically charged exospheric dust could contribute to such electron populations. This possibility is examined here using the exospheric dust abundances inferred from Apollo 15 coronal photographs to estimate the concentration of electrons produced by photo- and secondary emission from dust. These estimates far exceed the electron concentrations predicted by any other suggested mechanism, and are within a factor of ≈20 of those inferred from the Luna 19 measurements. It is possible that this discrepancy is due to an under-estimate in dust grain capacitances and/or the presence of much higher exospheric dust abundances during the Luna 19 measurements. These results suggest that electrons emitted from exospheric dust could be responsible for the Luna 19 measurements, and that this process could dominate the formation and evolution of the lunar ionosphere.     

New measures of the orientation of the linear structure in the sunward hemisphere of the coma of Comet 19P/Borrelly: apparitions of 1994, 2001, and 2008

The sky‐projected orientation (position angle) of the axis (line of maximum density or maximum brightness) of the long time‐known, linear structure (LS) in the sunward hemisphere of the coma of Comet 19P/Borrelly is measured on 45 photographs taken by different observers under different projection conditions and covering three consecutive apparitions (1994, 2001, and 2008) for a total time interval of 5174 days. The analysis of the results by a tomographic approach yields an LS axis constantly oriented towards a fixed point in the space, at Right Ascension 214°.4 ± 0°.5 and Declination –7°.0 ± 0°.5 (J2000), corresponding to an obliquity of 103°.5 ± 1° and an orbital longitude of 147°.2 ± 1°, throughout the relevant interval. Such coordinates are close to the ones found by other authors for the spatial orientation of the nucleus spin axis during the apparitions of 1994 and 2001. In the hypothesis of an LS orientation aligned with the nucleus spin axis, the new results confirm the previous ones and show that this orientation remained unchanged during the subsequent 2008 apparition (© 2011 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

气象云会商系统的设计及应用

气象部门素来有通过视频会议进行天气会商的传统,但受限于技术条件,多年以来天气会商只能在气象部门内网环境中进行。为满足用户基于互联网接入天气会商的需要,国家气象信息中心于2019年建设完成了气象云会商系统。该系统依托国产的互联网视频会议产品,采用专有云方式进行了部署,并实现了与气象部门已有的基于H.323协议视频会议系统的融合对接。通过在多个云会商系统间设置友好企业方式,不仅满足了气象部门系统分级和属地化管理的要求,也极大的提升了跨部门会商联动的简便性。本文对该系统的设计方案及关键技术进行了阐述,并介绍了其在重大活动气象服务及气象部门迎战新冠肺炎疫情过程中的应用效果,也提出了下一步云会商业务的发展方向。     

基于GIS新冠智能体仿真模型及应用——以广州市为例

2019年12月湖北省武汉市出现了新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情.新型冠状病毒传播力强,导致全国甚至全世界范围都出现新型冠状病毒疫情.为了刻画新型冠状病毒在城市内部的传播方式,本文基于个体在城市中的行为和社会关系,融合了复杂网络理论和GIS技术构建了新型冠状病毒智能体仿真模型.该模型以广州市为研究对象,通过马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛方法...     

金钱鱼脑型芳香化酶基因cDNA 的克隆及表达分析

为了探讨Cyp19a1b基因表达与温度及鱼油添加量的相互关系,奠定金钱鱼人工繁育理论基础,作者采用RT-PCR和RACE法,克隆了金钱鱼(Scatophagus argue Linnaeus)脑型芳香化酶基因(Cyp19a1b);采用实时荧光定量PCR法,检测了不同温度(23、26和29℃)和不同水平鱼油(0、2%和6%)处理后二龄雌性金钱鱼脑垂体中Cyp19a1b mRNA表达。结果表明:Cyp19a1b cDNA全长2409bp,5′端非编码区164 bp,3′端(不包括poly(A))712 bp,开放阅读框(ORF)1506 bp,编码501个氨基酸,推测其蛋白质分子量为56.697 kDa。序列分析及分子系统进化树结果表明:金钱鱼Cyp19a1b氨基酸序列与黄锡鲷和舌齿鲈Cyp19a1b同源性较高,分别为86.2%、86.5%,与鲤鱼(Cyprinus carpio)、稀有鲫(Gobiocypris rarus)、斑马鱼(Danio rerio)、赤点石斑鱼(Epinephelus akaara)、大黄鱼(Larimichthys crocea)、南方大口鲇(Silurus meridionalis)和鲻鱼(Mugil cephalus)Cyp19a1b同源性为64.1%~84.4%,但与上述7种鱼性腺芳香化酶(Cyp19a1a)同源性低于63.5%,同源性分析结果与根据传统形态学和生化特征分类的结果相一致。荧光定量PCR结果显示,随处理时间的延长,26℃和29℃组金钱鱼脑垂体中Cyp19a1b mRNA的表达量都逐渐降低,但29℃组显著低于26℃组(P0.05),而23℃组在6周时则显著高于26℃和29℃组(P0.05),约为26℃组2倍的表达量;鱼油处理3个投喂组脑垂体中Cyp19a1b mRNA的表达量均逐渐降低,但鱼油对金钱鱼脑垂体中Cyp19a1b mRNA的表达量无显著影响(P0.05)。以上结果表明:随着卵巢发育或鱼油含量的提高,可降低雌性金钱鱼脑垂体中Cyp19a1b mRNA的表达,这种降低可能是E2反馈调节所致;水温高于26℃将抑制Cyp19a1b mRNA的表达。