Optimum Sample Size to Detect Perturbation Effects: The Importance of Statistical Power Analysis – A Critique

Abstract. The current article describes statistical power analysis as an efficient strategy for the estimation of the optimum sample size. The principle aim is constructively to criticise and enrich the results presented by Mouillot et al. (1999) , who estimate the optimum sample size for evaluating possible perturbations. The authors did not make any reference to statistical power analysis, even though their objective clearly went beyond a simple stock evaluation to assess management strategies in a particular marine ecosystem. Surprisingly, they proposed (a priori) an ANOVA design to test a hypothesis considering both space and temporal scales. However, the authors did not cover important topics related with power analysis and the precautionary principle, both used into environment impact assessment programmes for marine ecosystems. Based on their results and on statistical power analysis, it is demonstrated that the variability (dispersion statistics), a key factor they used to estimate the sample size, is less relevant than the magnitude of perturbation (effect size). Therefore, a greater effort must be devoted to estimate the effect size of a particular phenomenon rather than a desired variability.     

高精度CTD剖面仪电导率传感器的研究和实验

高精度CTD剖面仪是海洋863项目的重要组成部分，是海洋调查和水文观测必不可少的仪器，本文详细论述了CTD剖面仪中电导率传感器的研制方法和过程，并给出传感器现已达到的水平，提出还需要进一步进行的工作和深入研究的问题。     

How are large western hemisphere warm pools formed?

During the boreal summer the Western Hemisphere warm pool (WHWP) stretches from the eastern North Pacific to the tropical North Atlantic and is a key feature of the climate of the Americas and Africa. In the summers following nine El Niño events during 1950–2000, there have been five instances of extraordinarily large warm pools averaging about twice the climatological annual size. These large warm pools have induced a strengthened divergent circulation aloft and have been associated with rainfall anomalies throughout the western hemisphere tropics and subtropics and with more frequent hurricanes. However, following four other El Niño events large warm pools did not develop, such that the mere existence of El Niño during the boreal winter does not provide the basis for predicting an anomalously large warm pool the following summer.In this paper, we find consistency with the hypothesis that large warm pools result from an anomalous divergent circulation forced by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Pacific, the so-called atmospheric bridge. We also find significant explanations for why large warm pools do not always develop. If the El Niño event ends early in the eastern Pacific, the Pacific warm anomaly lacks the persistence needed to force the atmospheric bridge and the Atlantic portion of the warm pool remains normal. If SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific do not last much beyond February of the following year, then the eastern North Pacific portion of the warm pool remains normal. The overall strength of the Pacific El Niño does not appear to be a critical factor. We also find that when conditions favor a developing atmospheric bridge and the winter atmosphere over the North Atlantic conforms to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern (as in 1957–58 and 1968–69), the forcing is reinforced and the warm pool is stronger. On the other hand, if a positive NAO pattern develops the warm pool may remain normal even if other circumstances favor the atmospheric bridge, as in 1991–92. Finally, we could find little evidence that interactions internal to the tropical Atlantic are likely to mitigate for or against the formation of the largest warm pools, although they may affect smaller warm pool fluctuations or the warm pool persistence.     

Nonparametric Estimates of the Sea State Bias for the Jason-1 Radar Altimeter

The Jason-1 sea state bias (SSB) is analyzed in depth from the first year of GDR products. Compared to previous missions, this work benefits from two aspects of the empirical determination of the SSB from the altimetric data themselves. First, from a methodological point of view, a nonparametric technique (NP) has been developed and largely tested on TOPEX/Poseidon 1, GFO and Envisat data. The NP estimator has proven to be a useful tool in the SSB estimation, and it is now mature enough to be used for a refined analysis. On the other hand, the SSB can be extracted from three different data sets (crossovers, collinear data, and residuals) with different characteristics. It is then possible to cross calibrate various estimations of the SSB models and to determine the most accurate one. A systematic comparison is made between these different estimates for the Jason-1 altimeter. The collinear and crossover data sets yield very similar estimates despite their difference of spatial and temporal distributions. These SSB models assure consistency with the TOPEX mission when comparing Jason-1 and TOPEX residuals during the tandem phase. Thanks to the present work, the impact of the short wavelengths filtering on the SSB estimation is evidenced. More generally, our understanding of potential errors affecting the sea surface height and their impact onto the SSB estimation is also improved.     

Use of an optical oxygen sensor to measure dissolved oxygen in seawater

The use of an optical oxygen sensor to measure dissolved oxygen in seawater was investigated. The sensor is based on the dynamic quenching of an oxygen-sensitive fluorochrome embedded in the tip. Dissolved oxygen in seawater samples collected from eight stations at depths ranging from 3000 to 6000 m was analyzed both with the optical sensor and by the Winkler titration method. The two sets of data did not differ significantly. The stability and simplicity of the method and the good agreement of the results with those of the titration method indicate that the sensor would be useful for fieldwork.     

陀螺经纬仪的读数方法比较研究

介绍了陀螺定向测量中三种不同的数据采集方法，分析了各种方法的优缺点。作者认为传感器采集数据自动化程度高，精度高，特别是运用位置敏感探测器（PSD）采样数据量大，具有一定的抗干扰能力，但在运用传感器采样时必须注意克服非线性误差。     

不同生长期坛紫菜多糖中组分含量的变化

于１９９０－１９９１年，运用＾１３Ｃ－ＮＭＲ和化学分析方法研究南方产和移植北方养殖的不同生长发育阶段坛紫菜多糖的组分变化，结果表明，随着藻体生长发育，坛紫菜琼胶中３，６－内醚－Ｌ－半乳糖和６－ＯＣＨ３－Ｄ－半乳糖的含量逐渐增加，而硫酸基的含量呈现先增加后减少的规律；北移坛紫菜琼胶中３，６－内醚－Ｌ－半乳糖的含量高于南方坛紫菜，而硫酸基和６－ＯＣＨ３－Ｄ－半乳糖的含量低于南方坛紫菜。     

LAPP对中国对虾(Penaeus chinensis)生长、缺氧耐受力及免疫抵抗力的影响

实验研究维生素C多聚磷酸酯（LAPP）添加在对虾饲料中，对中国对虾的生长、缺氧耐受力及免疫抵抗力的影响；实验进一步证明了中国对虾饲料中LAPP的最适添加量为400mg／100g饲料;本文还提出饲料中的LAPP能够提高中国对虾的缺氧耐受力，在溶氧超过3．1mg／kg海水的情况下，效果显著，在降低到2．3mg／kg海水时，作用减弱；用副溶血弧菌（Vibroparahaemolyticus）注射入虾体内，12小时内记录发现，饲料中不含LAPP的一组中国对虾，死亡率高于其它组，并且，LAPP含量最高的一组，死亡率明显低，死亡时间也出现较晚，这证明LAPP能够提高中国对虾的免疫抵抗力；本实验用注射金黄色葡萄球菌后细胞的吞噬百分率作指标，研究对虾细胞的吞噬作用，发现饲料中不含LAPP的对虾的吞噬百分率较低，随着饲料中LAPP浓度的提高，对虾血细胞的吞噬百分率逐渐升高，说明中国对虾细胞的吞噬作用逐步增强。     

Application of the first internal transcribed spacer(ITS-1) of ribosomal DNA as a molecular marker to population analysis in farrer''s scallop Chlamys farreri

Sequence variation of the first internal transcribed spacer of ribosomal DNA （ ITS - 1 ） was examined and its application to the study of genetic variation was explored in four populations of farter＇ s scallop Chlamys farreri. ITS - 1 fragments, with a length of about 300 bp,of 78 individuals collected from Dalian, Qingdao, Yantai in China and Korea respectively were amplified via PCR, cloned and sequenced. Intra-genomic variation was examined by sequencing several clones of single individuals. Alignment and polymorphism analysis detected 44 haplotypes and 50 polymorphic sites which consist of 30 substitutions and 20 indels, indicating a high level of polymorphisms. Sequence analysis also showed a very low level of intra-individual variation. All these features validated the feasibility of application of ITS - 1 fragment to population analysis. Polymorphism analysis showed that the Korea sample has the richest genetic variation, followed by Yantai and Qingdao samples. AMOVA （analysis of molecular variance） showed that the majority （96.26%） of genetic variation was distributed within populations and 3.74% resulted from among populations, but with P 〈 0.05 （ = 0.042）, indicating that the populations in this study have significant divergence. This output was basically concordant with the result arising from RAPD data and different from that from mitochondrial 16S rDNA sequence data. Discussion on this inconsistency was made accordingly.     

Stability of Temperature and Conductivity Sensors of Argo Profiling Floats

After recalibration of the temperature and conductivity sensors of three Argo profiling floats recovered after operations for four to nine months, the results indicate that the floats basically showed no significant drift, either in temperature or salinity, and adequately fulfilled the accuracy requirement of the Argo project (0.005°C for temperature and 0.01 psu for salinity). Only the third float showed a significant offset in salinity of about −0.02 psu, as expected from comparison between the float data and the shipboard conductivity-temperature-depth data. This offset was caused by the operational error of the PROVOR-type float, in which the surface water was pumped immediately after the launch, fouling the conductivity sensor cell. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.