高阶统计量在形变固体潮汐异常信息提取中的应用

将高阶统计量方法运用到形变固体潮汐资料处理中,对2006年4月9日山东莘县与河南濮阳交界的濮阳ML4.6地震前泰安地震台的潮汐形变观测资料进行了处理与分析。发现在地震前的一段时间内有异常信号介入,分析结果中的低点对地震异常信息的提取有指导意义。此方法能较好的提取潮汐形变短临异常。     

多个地震台网相互融合测定震级的贝叶斯算法

流动地震台网由于台站台基响应、震级测定方法和操作方式等多种因素的影响, 测定震级与区域内的固定地震台网震级测量结果存在差异, 从而使其记录到的而标准台网没有记录到的大量局域小地震不能直接补充到标准目录中.即使流动地震台网的震级测定公式中的量规函数经过校正, 两者在具体地震事件的震级测定上的差异仍不可避免, 因此急需解决这一普遍性问题的快速计算方法.本文先假定震级的观测值服从正态分布, 其中对固定台网而言, 测定震级的平均值为未知的真实震级, 对流动台网而言, 测定震级的平均值为真实震级的一个线性函数, 然后基于贝叶斯原理, 推导得出了不同台网观测震级的后验概率密度函数.应用于实际观测资料时, 可用最大似然估计来获得该算法中的矫正参数, 并计算后验的地震震级, 即矫正震级.我们将该算法实际应用于西昌流动地震台网(XC)与中国地震台网(CN)的震级融合问题中.基于矫正震级与原始测定震级的对比研究表明, 矫正震级与固定地震台网原始测定震级之间存在一定偏离度的线性对应分布, 而西昌流动地震台网测定震级相比矫正震级整体偏小.本文所提出的多台网震级融合的贝叶斯算法为流动台网测定的不精确震级提供了一种震级矫正的快速算法, 考虑固定台网与流动台网测定震级的一致性, 固定台网测定震级的稳定性和准确性也得到同步提高.

     

坠落式危岩体稳定性可靠度判定及参数敏感性分析

汶川地震重灾区,由地震触发的地质灾害数量很多,其中危岩体稳定性判定为灾害治理重点工作。基于可靠度理论,针对坠落式危岩体稳定性极限状态特征,建立其可靠度判定概率极限状态方程,并采用现场量测及概率统计方法,对功能函数中危岩破裂面倾角、危岩等效摩擦角、单位长度危岩体重力、危岩等效黏聚力c、危岩体高度h等基本变量的均值、变异性及分布形态进行确定。基于以上研究成果,建立了坠落式危岩体稳定性可靠度指标计算方法,同时对各基本变量的可靠度敏感性进行研究,研究结果表明:其敏感性由大到小依次为危岩破裂面倾角、危岩等效黏聚力c、危岩的高度h、单位长度危岩体重力、危岩等效摩擦角,研究成果为坠落式危岩体稳定性判定和治理方案设计提供参考依据。     

An efficient probabilistic back-analysis method for braced excavations using wall deflection data at multiple points

This paper presents an efficient Bayesian back-analysis procedure for braced excavations using wall deflection data at multiple points. Response surfaces obtained from finite element analyses are adopted to efficiently evaluate the wall responses. Deflection data for 49 wall sections from 11 case histories are collected to characterize the model error of the finite element method for evaluating the deflections at various points. A braced excavation project in Hang Zhou, China is chosen to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed procedure. The results indicate that the soil parameters could be updated more significantly for the updating that uses the deflection data at multiple points than that only uses the maximum deflection data. The predicted deflections from the updated parameters agree fairly well with the field observations. The main significance of the proposed procedure is that it improves the updating efficiency of the soil parameters without adding monitoring effort compared with the traditional method that uses the maximum deflection data.     

Counting statistics of f −β fluctuations: a new method for analysis of earthquake data

In a variety of biological and physical phenomena, temporal fluctuations are found, which are not explainable as consequences of statistically independent random events. If these fluctuations are characterized by a power spectrum density S(f) decaying as f ^– at low frequencies, this behaviour is called 1/f noise.Counting statistics applied to earthquake activity data leads to three time scales with different characteristics, represented by the exponent : at interval lengths less than 1 h, the shocks are randomly distributed as in a Poisson process. For medium time intervals (1 day to 3 months), the exponent 1 + is larger (1.4 for M ₀=3), but approaches unity for higher threshold magnitudes M ₀. In longer time ranges the exponent assumes values near 1.55, however, with increasing statistical variation at higher M ₀, due to lower counts.The temporal sequence is different from white noise; thus, it might be fruitful to apply neural network algorithms, because this method allows predictions in some other cases with similar characteristics.     

《地震工程与工程振动》1995～1999年论文的统计分析

本文对《地震工程与工程振协》１９９５￣１９９９年５年间刊载的论文、作者和引文进行了较全面的统计,运用文献计量学的原理与方法,分析了文献群内存在的数量规律;定量地描述了期刊论文的平均载文量、作者合作度、核心作者和引文情况;对其进行了客观的评价以期为地震工程学科的发展和本刊的发展提供可参考数据。     

丽江7.0级地震土木结构房屋破坏比和损失比

本根据丽江地震区１１３个自然村震害调查资料，对不同烈度区土木房屋不同破坏等级破坏比的分布特点进行了初步研究，对破坏比与烈度的关系进行了统计分析，并给出了相应的统计关系，另外，通过实地调查，给出了本次地震土木结构房屋不同破坏等级的损失比。     

Diagnostic study and modeling of the annual positive water temperature onset

A data-driven model is designed using artificial neural networks (ANN) to predict the average onset for the annual water temperature cycle of North-American streams. The data base is composed of daily water temperature time series recorded at 48 hydrometric stations in Québec (Canada) and northern US, as well as the geographic and physiographic variables extracted from the 48 associated drainage basins. The impact of individual and combined drainage area characteristics on the stream annual temperature cycle starting date is investigated by testing different combinations of input variables. The best model allows to predict the average temperature onset for a site, given its geographical coordinates and vegetation and lake coverage characteristics, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 5.6 days. The best ANN model was compared favourably with parametric approaches.     

地震活动性统计学研究方法的若干进展与讨论

对统计学方法在地震活动性研究中的部分重要成果、最新研究进展进行了简要地回顾。重点介绍了余震衰减关系和震级、频度关系的相关研究成果及地震活动过程随机模拟等的发展趋势。     

Factors influencing the hydraulic properties of wells in dolomite aquifers of Slovenia

The influence of eight factors on hydraulic parameters (transmissivity, hydraulic conductivity, specific capacity, specific capacity index and maximum yields) are analysed, with data based on hydrogeological reports of 298 wells in dolomite aquifers in Slovenia. Influence of lithological properties is very significant, with the highest values of analysed variables observed in pure late-diagenetic intensely fractured Cordevolian dolomites, followed by Anisian and Late Triassic (‘Main’ dolomite) dolomites with high carbonate content and high primary porosity. The hydraulic parameters are not dependent on aquifer age, partial penetration, and well depth. The effects of depth to the water table and existence of low permeability overburden are not of major importance. The hydraulic parameter values are higher the closer to a river the wells are located, and topographic setting has a major effect. From the well reports, it was not always deduced whether the values of hydraulic conductivity and transmissivity stand for the values of the fractures or of the matrix, so it is proposed that when there is doubt as to whether these values are properly calculated, the most accurate parameters that can be used for a further prediction of aquifer yield are the specific capacity and, to a somewhat lesser extent, the specific capacity index.

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Résumé  L’influence de 8 facteurs sur les paramètres hydrauliques (transmissivité, perméabilité, débit spécifique, courbe caractéristique et débit critique) est analysée sur des données issues des rapports de 298 puits dans les aquifères dolomitiques de Slovénie. L’influence des propriétés lithologiques est très significative : les valeurs les plus élevées sont observées dans les dolomies cordevoliennes pures, intensément fracturées et de diagénèse tardive, puis dans les dolomies de l’Anisien et du Trias Supérieur, avec une teneur élevée en carbonates et une forte porosité primaire. Les paramètres hydrauliques ne dépendent pas de l’age de l’aquifère, de la pénétration partielle ou de la profondeur. Les effets du niveau piézométrique et de l’existence d’une couverture peu perméable sont mineurs. Les paramètres hydrauliques augmentent à proximité des rivières, et la topographie a une influence majeure. Les rapports de forage ne stipulent pas systématiquement si les valeurs de perméabilité et de transmissivité sont relatives au réseau de fractures ou à la matrice ; il a par conséquent été proposé qu’en cas de doute sur le calcul de ces valeurs, les paramètres les plus significatifs pour remonter à la productivité de l’aquifère soient le débit spécifique et, dans une moindre mesure, la courbe caractéristique.

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Resumen  Se analiza la influencia de ocho factores sobre parámetros hidráulicos (transmisividad, conductividad hidráulica, capacidad específica, índice de capacidad específica, y rendimientos máximos) en base a datos de reportes hidrogeológicos de 298 pozos en acuíferos de dolomía en Eslovenia. La influencia de las propiedades litológicas es muy significativa con los valores más altos de variables analizadas presentes en dolomías Cordevolianas con diagénesis tardía fracturadas intensamente, seguidas por dolomías (dolomía “Principal”) del Anisiano y Triásico Tardío con alto contenido de carbonato y alta porosidad primaria. Los valores de los parámetros hidráulicos no son dependientes de la edad del acuífero, penetración parcial, y profundidad del pozo. Los efectos de profundidad al nivel freático y existencia de cobertura de baja permeabilidad no son de importancia fundamental. Los valores de los parámetros hidráulicos son más altos mientras más cerca de un río se localizan los pozos y el ámbito topográfico tiene un efecto principal. No se pudo deducir de los reportes de los pozos si los valores de transmisividad y conductividad hidráulica representan valores de las fracturas o de la matriz, de modo que se propone que cuando exista duda en cuanto a que si estos valores se han calculado de manera adecuada, los parámetros de mayor precisión que pueden utilizarse para una predicción futura del rendimiento del acuífero son la capacidad específica y, en menor medida, el índice de capacidad específica.