Bayesian estimation of seismic hazard for two sites in Switzerland

Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law.     

An integrable case of a rotational motion analogous to that of Lagrange and Poisson for a gyrostat in a Newtonian force field

The scope of the present paper is to provide analytic solutions to the problem of the attitude evolution of a symmetric gyrostat about a fixed point in a central Newtonian force field when the potential function isV ⁽²⁾.We assume that the center of mass and the gyrostatic moment are on the axis of symmetry and that the initial conditions are the following: (t ₀)=₀, (t ₀)=₀, (t ₀)=(t ₀)=₀, ₁(t ₀)=0, ₂(t ₀)=0 and ₃(t ₀)= ₃ ⁰ .The problem is integrated when the third component of the total angular momentum is different from zero (B ₁ 0). There now appear equilibrium solutions that did not exist in the caseB ₁=0, which can be determined in function of the value ofl ₃ ^r (the third component of the gyrostatic momentum).The possible types of solutions (elliptic, trigonometric, stationary) depend upon the nature of the roots of the functiong(u). The solutions for Euler angles are given in terms of functions of the timet. If we cancel the third component of the gyrostatic momentum (l ₃ ^r =0), the obtained solutions are valid for rigid bodies.     

On the periodic solutions of a particular Lame equation

We consider the Hill's equation: % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGGipm0dc9vqaqpepu0xbbG8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq-Jc9% vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0-yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr-x% fr-xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaWaaSaaaeaaca% WGKbWaaWbaaSqabeaacaaIYaaaaOGaeqOVdGhabaGaamizaiaadsha% daahaaWcbeqaaiaaikdaaaaaaOGaey4kaSYaaSaaaeaacaWGTbGaai% ikaiaad2gacqGHRaWkcaaIXaGaaiykaaqaaiaaikdaaaGaam4qamaa% CaaaleqabaGaaGOmaaaakiaacIcacaWG0bGaaiykaiabe67a4jabg2% da9iaaicdaaaa!4973!\[\frac{{d^2 \xi }}{{dt^2 }} + \frac{{m(m + 1)}}{2}C^2 (t)\xi = 0\]Where C(t) = Cn (t, {frbuilt|1/2}) is the elliptic function of Jacobi and m a given real number. It is a particular case of theame equation. By the change of variable from t to defined by: % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGGipm0dc9vqaqpepu0xbbG8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq-Jc9% vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0-yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr-x% fr-xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaqcaawaaOWaaiqaaq% aabeqaamaalaaajaaybaGaamizaGGaaiab-z6agbqaaiaadsgacaWG% 0baaaiabg2da9OWaaOaaaKaaGfaacaGGOaqcKbaG-laaigdajaaycq% GHsislkmaaleaajeaybaGaaGymaaqaaiaaikdaaaqcaaMaaeiiaiaa% bohacaqGPbGaaeOBaOWaaWbaaKqaGfqabaGaaeOmaaaajaaycqWFMo% GrcqWFPaqkaKqaGfqaaaqcaawaaiab-z6agjab-HcaOiab-bdaWiab% -LcaPiab-1da9iab-bdaWaaakiaawUhaaaaa!51F5!\[\left\{ \begin{array}{l}\frac{{d\Phi }}{{dt}} = \sqrt {(1 - {\textstyle{1 \over 2}}{\rm{ sin}}^{\rm{2}} \Phi )} \\\Phi (0) = 0 \\\end{array} \right.\]it is transformed to the Ince equation: (1 + · cos(2)) y + b · sin(2) · y + (c + d · cos(2)) y = 0 where % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGGipm0dc9vqaqpepu0xbbG8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq-Jc9% vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0-yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr-x% fr-xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaqcaawaaiaadggacq% GH9aqpcqGHsislcaWGIbGaeyypa0JcdaWcgaqaaiaaigdaaeaacaaI% ZaGaaiilaiaabccacaWGJbGaeyypa0Jaamizaiabg2da9aaacaqGGa% WaaSaaaKaaGfaacaWGTbGaaiikaiaad2gacqGHRaWkcaaIXaGaaiyk% aaqaaiaaiodaaaaaaa!4777!\[a = - b = {1 \mathord{\left/{\vphantom {1 {3,{\rm{ }}c = d = }}} \right.\kern-\nulldelimiterspace} {3,{\rm{ }}c = d = }}{\rm{ }}\frac{{m(m + 1)}}{3}\]In the neighbourhood of the poles, we give the expression of the solutions.The periodic solutions of the Equation (1) correspond to the periodic solutions of the Equation (3). Magnus and Winkler give us a theory of their existence. By comparing these results to those of our study in the case of the Hill's equation, we can find the development in Fourier series of periodic solutions in function of the variable and deduce the development of solutions of (1) in function of C(t).     

Bayesian Spatial Modelling of Gamma Ray Count Data

Gamma ray logging is a method routinely employed by geophysicists and environmental engineers in site geology evaluations. Modelling of gamma ray data from individual boreholes assists in the local identification of major lithological changes; modelling these data from a network of boreholes assists with lithological mapping and spatial stratigraphic correlation. In this paper we employ Bayesian spatial partition models to analyse gamma ray data spatially. In particular, a spatial partition is defined via a Voronoi tessellation and the mean intensity is assumed constant in each cell of the partition. The number of vertices generating the tessellation as well as the locations of vertices are assumed unknown, and uncertainty about these quantities is described via a hierarchical prior distribution. We describe the advantages of the spatial partition modelling approach in the context of smoothing gamma ray count data and describe an implementation that may be extended to the fitting of a more general model than a constant mean within each cell of the partition. As an illustration of the methodology we consider a data set collected from a network of eight boreholes, which is part of a geophysical study to assist in mapping the lithology of a site. Gamma ray logs are linked with geological information from cores and the spatial analysis of log data assists with predicting the lithology at unsampled locations.     

Re-evaluation of focal depths and source mechanisms of selected earthquakes in the Afar depression

We present a stepwise inversion procedure to assess the focal depth and model earthquake source complexity of seven moderate-sized earthquakes  (6.2 > M _w > 5.1)  that occurred in the Afar depression and the surrounding region. The Afar depression is a region of highly extended and intruded lithosphere, and zones of incipient seafloor spreading. A time-domain inversion of full moment tensor was performed to model direct P and SH waves of teleseismic data. Waveform inversion of the selected events estimated focal depths in the range of 17–22 km, deeper than previously published results. This suggests that the brittle–ductile transition zone beneath parts of the Afar depression extends more than 22 km. The effect of near-source velocity structure on the moment tensor elements was also investigated and was found to respond little to the models considered. Synthetic tests indicate that the size of the estimated, non-physical, non-isotropic source component is rather sensitive to incorrect depth estimation. The dominant double couple part of the moment tensor solutions for most of the events indicates that their occurrence is mainly due to shearing. Parameters associated with source directivity (rupture velocity and azimuth) were also investigated. Re-evaluation of the analysed events shows predominantly normal faulting consistent with the relative plate motions in the region.     

Seismic Hazard for Selected Sites in Greece: A Bayesian Estimate of Seismic Peak Ground Acceleration

A procedure for estimating maximum values of seismic peak ground accelerationat the examined site and quantiles of its probabilistic distribution in a future timeinterval of a given length is considered. The input information for the method areseismic catalog and regression relation between peak seismic acceleration at a givenpoint and magnitude and distance from the site to epicenter (seismic attenuation law).The method is based on Bayesian approach, which simply accounts for influenceof uncertainties of seismic acceleration values. The main assumptions for the method are Poissonian character of seismic events flow and distribution law of Gutenberg-Richter's type. The method is applied to seismic hazard estimation in six selected sitesin Greece.     

Structural relaxation in the MnCO3–CaCO3 solid solution: a Mn K-edge EXAFS study

Mn K-edge EXAFS spectroscopy of solid-solution samples encompassing the complete MnCO₃–CaCO₃ series shows that first-shell Mn–O distances deviate little from the 2.19-Å distance observed in pure MnCO₃. Very slight lengthening is observed only in the limiting case of dilute Mn(II) calcite solid solutions, where the Mn–O distance is 2.21 Å. The observed nearly complete structural relaxation and the composition independence of the Mn–O distance are consistent with the Pauling model behavior of solid solutions, and agree with previous studies showing a high degree of relaxation around hetero-sized substituents in the calcite structure. Strain occurs through bond bending, which is facilitated by the exclusively corner-sharing topology of calcite. Observed distances from Mn to more distant neighbors show significant variation across the solid-solution series that resembles Vegard's law-type behavior but reflects averaging. The high degree of relaxation suggests modest enthalpies of mixing in the solution, consistent with calorimetric studies.     

有限弹性变形地壳中的地震波

地壳由半无限大的基岩上一层厚度为H^-的表土层组成，入射地震波为垂直的SH波，产生水平地面运动。当浅源大地震发生时，在极震区以外行波传播产生地面运动将使地壳介质有非线性的有限弹性变形。用小参数摄动法使非线性控制方程为线性化的小参数各阶控制方程，得出头两阶线性控制方程的解析解。