中国大陆西部及邻区各地震活动区地震活动关系研究

利用相关函数分析方法对1900年以来缅甸转换构造区、滇西南旋转构造域和兴都库什中深源地震区的7．0级以上地震与中国大陆西部及邻区的其它各地震活动区7．0级以上地震的相互关系进行研究。结果表明：缅甸转换构造区、滇西南旋转构造域和兴都库什中深源地震区的地震活动与其它各地震活动区的地震活动在时间和空间上存在一定的对应关系。这一结果对中国大陆西部及邻区强震的预报有一定的意义。     

地震活动涨落、自组织结构和大震临界状态的统计特征

根据非线性动力学理论、运用概率论与数理统计方法,对非平衡地震发生系统的空间分布状态进行了研究。提出用空间变异系数δV判断涨落类型:凝聚集、群集、泊松型和均匀点阵分布。从整体观点综合应用各统计量即协方差μ11、非负量I(x,y)、联合信息熵H(x,y)、离散度σ和δV,对非平衡系统的群体空间自组织结构和临界状态的统计特征做了进一步的探讨。根据首都圈公元前231年～2003年M≥434地震活动及其和华北不同范围ML≥3.0地震活动涨落的统计分析认为,μ11≈0,I(x,y)>0,高H(x,y)值,低σ和δV值是强震和大震发生的自组织空间结构和临界现象的基本特征和必要条件。同时对地震空区、条带、前兆性震群及前震等前兆现象成因提出了新的观点和统计解释,并得出结论:仅当一个远离平衡态的系统(区域)有足够的随机性而又非泊松型涨落时,系统的突变(大震)是不可逆转的。     

Groundwater demand management at local scale in rural areas of India: a strategy to ensure water well sustainability based on aquifer diffusivity and community participation

Watershed development programmes provide an opportunity for sustainable management strategies, although currently, they remain largely supply-side mechanisms of water resources development. Hydrogeological conditions, community participation and status of groundwater usage are important in evolving strategies on demand-side groundwater management.Neemkheda aquifer is a typical low-storage, low-hydraulic conductivity aquifer from a watershed in the dryland regions of Madhya Pradesh State of central India. A shallow unconfined aquifer, it consists of an upper coarse, calcareous sandstone unit underlain by a fine-grained sandstone unit. A well commune of seven wells is poised to test the concept of joint groundwater management, wherein wells are mechanisms of tapping a common water source, the Neemkheda aquifer.The strategy for systematic groundwater management in the Neemkheda well commune is based upon the relationship between Transmissivity (T) and Storage coefficient (S), i.e. aquifer diffusivity, and its variation within the aquifer. Wells within a high diffusivity domain tend to dewater more quickly than wells within a low diffusivity domain. A well-use schedule during the dry season, based upon aquifer diffusivity forms the basis of the groundwater management concept. The distribution of local aquifer diffusivities governs the relationship between local and regional aquifer depletion times and forms the basis of the groundwater management exercise being proposed for the Neemkheda aquifer.

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Resumen Los programas de desarrollo de una cuenca hídrica son una oportunidad para el uso de estrategias de gestión sostenible, aunque hoy en día estas siguen siendo principalmente mecanismos para el desarrollo de recursos hídricos con énfasis en la oferta. Las condiciones hidrogeológicas, la participación comunitaria y la condición de utilización del agua subterránea, son importantes en el desarrollo de estrategias para la gestión del agua subterránea, desde el punto de vista de la demanda.El acuífero de Neemkheda es un acuífero típico de almacenamiento bajo y conductividad hidráulica baja, perteneciente a una cuenca hídrica ubicada en las regiones secas del Estado de Madhya Pradesh, en la parte central de India. Un acuífero de tipo libre, somero, formado por una unidad superior de arenisca calcárea de grano grueso, subyacida por una unidad de arenisca de grano fino.Un campo de pozos comunitario compuesto por siete pozos, pone a prueba el concepto de gestión conjunta del agua subterránea, dentro del cual los pozos son mecanismos para usar una fuente de agua común: El acuífero de Neemkheda.La estrategia usada para la gestión sistemática del agua subterránea, en el campo de pozos comunitario de Neemkheda, se basa en la relación existente entre Transmisividad (T) y Coeficiente de Almacenamiento (S), es decir en la Difusividad del Acuífero y en su variación observada dentro del mismo acuífero. Los pozos cuya difusividad esta dentro de un rango alto, tienden a experimentar un descenso en su nivel mas rápidamente que aquellos pozos con una difusividad baja. El concepto de gestión de agua subterránea se basa en un programa especial de operación para cada pozo durante la estación seca, el cual a su vez se basa en la difusividad del acuífero. La distribución de difusividades locales del acuífero rige las relaciones entre las épocas de descensos de nivel en el acuífero a escala regional y local, y además constituyen la base del ejercicio de la gestión del agua subterránea que se esta proponiendo para el acuífero de Neemkheda.

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Résumé Les programmes de développement des bassins versants offrent une occasion de développer des stratégies pour une gestion durable, bien qu à présent elles restent en grande mesure le terme source dans le mécanisme de développement de la ressource en eau. Les conditions hydrogéologiques, la participation de la communauté et lusage des eaux souterraines sont importants pour le terme demande dans les stratégies de gestion des eaux souterraines. Laquifère de Neemkheda presents des caractéristiques typiques pour un bassin versant dans les régions arides de létat Madhya Pradesh de lInde centrale en ce qui concerne les faible valeurs de la conductivité hydraulique et du coéfficient demmagasinement. Il sagit dun aquifère phrèatique dont la partie supérieure est constitué par des grès calcaire qui restent sur des grés plus fins. Afin dessayer le concept de gestion integrée, on a réalisé dans laquifère de Neemkheda un captage ayant sept forages qui forment la ressource en eau communale. La stratégie de la gestion systématique du captage est basée sur la relation entre la transmissivité (T), le coéfficient demmagasinement (S), donc la diffusivité hydraulique ainsi que sa variation spatiale. Les puits forés dans les zones à grande diffusivité tendent à sassècher plus vite que ceux creusés dans des zones à faible diffusivité. Le concept de la gestion des eaux souterraines est donc basé sur la distribution spatiale des diffusivités. À partir de ce concept on a développé un programme dexploitation des forages pendant les saisons sèches. La relation entre les temps d épuissment locaux et régionaux est determiné par la distribution spatiale de la diffusivitée et forme la base de lexercice sur la gestion des eaux proposée pour laquifère de Neemkheda.

     

Dynamic behavior of single-layer latticed cylindrical shells subjected to seismic loading

The single-layer latticed cylindrical shell is one of the most widely adopted space-framed structures. In this paper, free vibration properties and dynamic response to horizontal and vertical seismic waves of single-layer latticed cylindrical shells are analyzed by the finite clement method using ANSYS software. In the numerical study, where hundreds of cases were analyzed, the parameters considered included rise-span ratio, length-span ratio, surface load and member section size. Moreover, to better define the actual behavior of single-layer latticed shells, the study is focused on the dynamic stress response to both axial forces and bending moments. Based on the numerical results, the effects of the parameters considered on the stresses are discussed and a modified seismic force coefficient method is suggested. In addition, some advice based on these rescarch results is presented to help in the future design of such structures.     

星载SAR图像的稻田耕地系数实验研究

农田线性地物在SAR图像上的夸大表现,对基于SAR图像进行的农作物面积精确量算会产生一定的影响。本研究利用SAR图像提取了稻田沟渠、道路及田埂等线性地物,在实地和图像上分别进行了大量的测算,分析了图像上的夸大与相对方向角之间的关系,计算了线性地物半波亮度宽度的概率分布,以及稻田线性地物的耕地系数,为精确量算稻田面积提供了科学依据,并对进一步研究提出了建议。     

A new way to predict forecast skill

Forecast skill (Anomaly Correlated Coefficient, ACC) is a quantity to show the forecast quality of the products of numerical weather forecasting models. Predicting forecast skill, which is the foundation of ensemble forecasting, means submitting products to predict their forecast quality before they are used.Checking the reason is to understand the predictability for the real cases. This kind of forecasting service has been put into operational use by statistical methods previously at the National Meteorological Center (NMC), USA (now called the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)) and European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). However, this kind of service is far from satisfactory because only a single variable is used with the statistical method. In this paper, a new way based on the Grey Control Theory with multiple predictors to predict forecast skill of forecast products of the T42L9 of the NMC, China Meteorological Administration (CMA) is introduced. The results show: (1) The correlation coefficients between “forecasted“ and real forecast skill range from 0.56 to 0.7 at different seasons during the two-year period. (2) The grey forecasting model GM(1,8) forecasts successfully the high peaks, the increasing or decreasing tendency, and the turning points of the change of forecast skill of cases from 5 January 1990 to 29 February 1992.     

Temporal variations of the polar moment of inertia and the second-degree geopotential

In order to study the geodynamic behaviour of the Earth over short (elastic Earth) and long (almost perfectly liquid Earth) geological periodic variations, the changes of the moment of inertia are decomposed into two parts: the first, described by a volume integral, explains the effect of the density variations, while the second gives the impact of the surface variations using a surface integral. It is shown that both components have physical significance, but their contribution is different in case of short (lunisolar) and long (connected to secular despinning) periods.     

1948—2001年全球陆地春季降水长期变化的时空特征

利用全球陆地月降水资料(PREC/L)中3个月的资料,研究了1948—2001年全球陆地3—5月降水长期变化的时空特征。结果表明,1948—2001年,全球3—5月的降水量以负趋势为主要变化特征,明显减少的区域是:热带非洲、亚洲中西部、中国中东部、俄罗斯东部、南极的恩德比地和威尔克斯地等9个地区;降水量增加的区域是:俄罗斯西北部、美国西北部、加拿大西南部、南美洲南部、加拿大北部等7个地区。还研究了35个纬圈3—5月平均降水量的趋势系数。在分析全球季节降水量与ENSO的关系中,指出春季是春夏秋三季中最不显著的。     

朝阳地震台地下流体数字化资料图象特征初探

本文分析了朝阳地震台数字水化资料9种类型数据图象，并对图象的特征及其在地震预报中应用等问题进行了探讨。     

非水溶剂中电解质溶液活度系数的测定:NaCl在1,2-丙二醇中活度系数的测定

应用钠离子选择性电极和Ag-AgCl电极组成可逆电池,通过测定电池的电动势,应用Debye H櫣ckel极限公式,计算了不同温度下NaCl在1,2-丙二醇非水溶剂中的活度系数,并根据电解质溶液的溶剂化理论对NaCl的活度系数的某些变化规律进行了讨论。