山东省县域生态效率测算与时空特征分析

基于多源遥感数据提取投入产出数据,采用考虑非期望产出的超效率EBM模型对2000—2015年山东省县域生态效率进行测度,在此基础上采用核密度估计、空间自相关等方法对山东省县域生态效率的时空特征进行分析。研究表明：①山东省县域生态效率呈现波动式发展趋势;高值区与低值区存在显著空间分化,胶东半岛与济南都市圈构成高值集聚区,鲁西北、鲁西南、鲁南地区形成低值连绵带;②山东省县域生态效率无明显的两极分化现象,处于高值区、低值区的县域生态效率值变化较大,生态效率空间非均衡性逐渐扩大;③山东省县域生态效率存在显著空间正相关,且空间集聚性呈现增强态势;县域生态效率存在空间俱乐部趋同特征。     

Modeling of circulation and salinity in Hooghly estuary

The circulation and salinity distribution in the Hooghly Estuary have been studied by developing a two‐dimensional depth‐averaged numerical model for the lower estuary, where the flow is vertically well mixed. This has been coupled with a one‐dimensional model for the upper estuary, where the flow is assumed to be unidirectional and well mixed over the depth and breadth. The Hooghly River receives high freshwater discharge during the monsoon season (June to September), which has significant effect on the salinity distribution in the estuary. The model‐simulated currents, elevations, and salinities are in good agreement with observations during the dry season. However, during the wet season the computed salinities seem to deviate slightly from the observed values.     

Conflation and aggregation of spatial data improve predictive models for species with limited habitats: A case of the threatened yellow-billed cuckoo in Arizona,USA

Riparian vegetation provides important wildlife habitat in the southwestern United States, but limited distributions and spatial complexity often leads to inaccurate representation in maps used to guide conservation. We test the use of data conflation and aggregation on multiple vegetation/land-cover maps to improve the accuracy of habitat models for the threatened western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus occidentalis). We used species observations (n = 479) from a state-wide survey to develop habitat models from 1) three vegetation/land-cover maps produced at different geographic scales ranging from state to national, and 2) new aggregate maps defined by the spatial agreement of cover types, which were defined as high (agreement = all data sets), moderate (agreement ≥ 2), and low (no agreement required). Model accuracies, predicted habitat locations, and total area of predicted habitat varied considerably, illustrating the effects of input data quality on habitat predictions and resulting potential impacts on conservation planning. Habitat models based on aggregated and conflated data were more accurate and had higher model sensitivity than original vegetation/land-cover, but this accuracy came at the cost of reduced geographic extent of predicted habitat. Using the highest performing models, we assessed cuckoo habitat preference and distribution in Arizona and found that major watersheds containing high-probably habitat are fragmented by a wide swath of low-probability habitat. Focus on riparian restoration in these areas could provide more breeding habitat for the threatened cuckoo, offset potential future habitat losses in adjacent watershed, and increase regional connectivity for other threatened vertebrates that also use riparian corridors.     

坡面流与坡面侵蚀动力过程研究的最新进展*

在回顾了坡面流及坡面侵蚀过程研究的简史与现状的基础之上,全面总结了坡面流形成机理及其模式、坡面流水动力学特性、坡面侵蚀动力过程及其侵蚀产沙模型诸方面研究的最新进展,并对坡面流各要素分析及坡面小侵蚀陡坎的形成等进行了一些探讨。最后,提出了坡面流及坡面侵蚀过程研究中存在的主要问题及未来展望。     

1) I. A. H. S. / A. I. H. S.

Abstract

A simple method is used to study the response of runoff in the Sahel to climate change. The statistical characteristics of rainfall are calculated over the western part of the Sahel for the period 1961–1990, using the BADOPLU network. Daily rainfall is simulated using a Markov process with Weibull distribution for rainfall depths. Runoff is modelled using a conceptual SCS model and the curve numbers are calculated for West Africa. Climate change is provided by simulations using the Arpège GCM (Scenario A1B), and a perturbation method is used on the parameters which describe the rainfall. Changes in rainfall are assumed to occur through increases in frequency, not intensity. Using Arpège, runoff is mainly found to increase, in depth and in number of events, by the end of the 21st century. Changes in evaporation and land use are not included in the analysis. The impact of this 21st century potential climate change (rainfall) on the runoff is found to be of the same magnitude as the impact of changes in land use.     

返乡农民工旅游就业认知与意愿的实证研究

运用贵州省马岭河景区周边3个乡镇返乡农民工的调查数据及Logistic回归模型,对农民工旅游就业意愿及其影响因素进行了计量经济分析。研究表明,农民工旅游就业的意愿受到其年龄、文化程度、婚姻状况、务工时间、务工月收入、对当地旅游发展的认同度、对旅游就业的认知以及旅游地相关就业政策的满意度等多种因素的影响。基于实证研究结果,就如何通过正确引导和解决返乡农民工的后续就业问题提出了相应的理论思考和政策建议。     

1960-2009年横断山区潜在蒸发量时空变化(英文)

Based on the meteorological data of 20 stations in the Hengduan Mountains region during 1961-2009, the annual and seasonal variation of potential evapotranspiration was analyzed in combination with the Penman-Monteith model. With the method of Spline interpolation under ArcGIS, the spatial distribution of potential evapotranspiration was presented to research the regional difference, and the correlation analysis was used to discuss the dominant factor affecting the potential evapotranspiration. The results indicated that the an-nual potential evapotranspiration showed a decreasing tendency since the 1960s, especially from the 1980s to 1990s, while it showed an increasing tendency since 2000. Regional potential evapotranspiration showed a rate of -0.17 mm a?1. Potential evapotranspiration in north, middle and south of the Hengduan Mountains exhibited decreasing trends over the studied period, and its regional trend was on the decline from southwest to northeast.     

Effect of non-linear soil deformation on the interaction among energy piles

This study investigates the effect of non-linear soil deformation on the displacement interaction among energy piles. The work is based on interaction factor analyses of full-scale pile group tests, whose results are compared with experimental evidence. The results presented highlight the tendency of interaction factor analyses that ignore non-linear soil deformation to overestimate the interaction and the displacement of energy pile groups. This outcome, in accordance with previous studies for conventional pile groups subjected to mechanical loads, may be considered in the analysis and design of energy pile groups subjected to thermal (and mechanical) loads through the interaction factor method.     

天津市人口郊区化特征及其动力因素

基于"五普""六普"街道、乡镇数据,运用GIS及人口密度模型分析天津市人口郊区化的时空演变特征,并根据2005—2015年各区县数据,剖析其动力因素。结果表明:天津市中心区繁荣与郊区化并存,属于市中心发展型郊区化;天津已形成多中心格局,副中心人口聚集效应日益显著;人口郊区化伴随就业岗位的郊区化,但人口和产业存在空间分异现象;土地、住房制度改革及郊区经济发展加快了人口郊区化进程,公共服务的集中延缓了人口向郊区迁移,滨海新区发展、交通与通信网络的现代化为人口向郊区的迁移创造了条件。提出进一步推进城市组团式发展、推动产业结构与布局调整及以公共服务引导人口流动等措施实现中心城区人口向郊区有序分流。     

长沙都市区生境质量对城市扩张的时空响应

生境质量是评价生态环境的重要指标,掌握其对城市扩张的时空响应规律,有助于提升都市区城乡规划质量和生态管控的合理性。本文在运用InVEST模型对长沙都市区1995-2015年生境质量时空演化的基本特征进行分析的基础上,利用缓冲区由内向外逐层剖析,探讨长沙都市区近20年来城市扩张格局及其对生境质量的影响。结果表明：①长沙都市区建设用地面积从170.26 km²增至487.19 km²;三环线以内建设用地快速扩张,从三环线起向外扩张逐渐放缓;②生境质量中等及以上的区域占比从1995年的43.49%下降到2015年的27.22%,生境质量平均值则相应地从0.46下降到0.31,且退化最明显的区域从核心外围区(5-10号缓冲区)外移到三环线附近(10-15号缓冲区);③各圈层建设用地扩张强度与生境质量变化之间存在显著的空间负相关性,生境质量变化对城市扩张响应最强烈的区域始终位于核心外围区;④建设用地空间布局零散和几何形态不规则程度的增加加剧了生境质量的退化,并在三环线附近区域(10-15号缓冲区)表现最为明显,应成为未来长沙都市区城乡规划和生态管控的重点区域。