陕西果业基地伏旱指数及其预报方法

选取陕西苹果(梨)生产基地县中生态环境、气候特点与苹果(梨)产业发展水平具有代表性的10个台站,近40 a(1969—2008年)伏期降水量和无降水日数资料,设计并计算其伏旱指数。将伏旱指数分成强、偏强、中等、偏弱和弱五个等级,并用典型k阶自回归AR(k)预测模式进行独立样本预测试验。结果表明:伏旱指数能够较客观地反映基地县的伏旱强度,且伏旱指数的时空分布特征差异较大。这与这些基地县所处纬度、海拔高度、生态环境和气候背景的差异有关。典型k阶自回归预测模式预测准确及基本准确率在70%左右,预报效果尚好,具有实用价值。     

利用日本GPS网探测2011年Tohoku海啸引发的电离层扰动

海平面的海啸波会产生大气重力波进而引发电离层扰动.本文利用日本GPS总电子含量数据来探测2011年3月11日Tohoku海啸引发的电离层扰动.观测结果表明,在日本上空的电离层中存在两种重力波信号,分别由海平面的海啸波以及地震破裂过程产生.地震产生的电离层重力波分布在震中周围（包括海洋上空以及远离海洋的区域）,而海啸引发的电离层重力波主要分布在海洋上空.地震产生的电离层重力波具有不同的水平速度,包括约210 m·s^-1以及170 m·s^-1,其频率为1.5 mHz;而海啸引发的电离层重力波水平速度快于前者,约为280 m·s^-1,其频率为1.0 mHz.此外,海啸引发电离层重力波与海平面上的海啸波有相似的水平速度、方向、运行时间、波形以及频率等传播特征.本文的研究将电离层中的海啸信号与地震信号区分开来,进一步确认电离层对海啸波的敏感性.     

利用GPS TEC探测2015年尼泊尔地震激发的电离层扰动

利用尼泊尔周边区域6个IGS GPS跟踪站数据,对2015-04-25尼泊尔地震激发的电离层扰动进行分析。结果表明,地震发生后,尼泊尔上空电离层总电子含量（total electron content,TEC）存在不同频率的电离层扰动,扰动中心频率约为3 mHz和4 mHz。前者发生在震中附近1 000 km左右的范围,后者范围达2 000 km,推断其分别为地震破裂产生的声重波信号以及瑞利波向上传播到电离层所激发的异常扰动信号。联合两个频率扰动信号,根据观测的扰动位置以及经验扰动速度反演震中位置,结果与实际情况符合较好。     

On the growth of disturbances to forced and dissipated barotropic flows

Abstract

We consider the growth of disturbances to large-scale zonally-asymmetric steady states in a truncated spectral model for forced and dissipated barotropic flow. A variant of the energy method is developed to optimize the instantaneous disturbance energy growth rate. The method involves solving a matrix eigenvalue problem amenable to standard numerical techniques. Two applications are discussed. (1) The global stability of a family of steady states is assessed in terms of the Ekman damping coefficient r. It is shown that monotonic global stability (i.e., every disturbances energy monotonically decays to zero) prevails when r≥r_c . (2) Initially fastest-growing disturbances are constructed in the r<r_c regime. Particular attention is paid to a subregion of the r<r_c regime where initially-growing disturbances exist despite stability with respect to normal modes. Nonlinear time-dependent simulations are performed in order to appraise the time evolution of various disturbances.     

利用改进的SRTI法研究中尺度电离层行波扰动

针对现有单站电离层行波扰动指数(Single Receiver TID Index,SRTI)探测中尺度电离层行波扰动时探测周期范围有限的问题,本文提出了一种改进的SRTI方法,以提高探测扰动周期的适用范围.介绍了利用SRTI和改进的SRTI探测中尺度电离层行波扰动的原理,从理论上分析比较了二者探测扰动周期范围的能力,并采用美国加州南部的5个IGS站2012年年积日189的GPS观测数据,对电离层扰动进行了分析.结果显示在21∶30—23∶00LT时,扰动观测序列存在周期为15min和39min的扰动波,但是现有SRTI方法只探测到了前者,而改进的SRTI法很好地探测到了两个周期的扰动波,表明其对短周期和较长周期的扰动均具有较好的灵敏性.利用改进的SRTI法计算的扰动观测序列,应用傅里叶变换相位差分法估计了电离层扰动的传播参数,其结果总体上与前人研究成果一致,这表明改进的SRTI法完全可以应用于电离层行波扰动的研究中,而且由于计算简单,在处理大量数据时具有一定优势.     

Robust control based on feedback linearization for roll stabilizing of autonomous underwater vehicle under wave disturbances

In the case of Autonomous Underwater Vehicle(AUV) navigating with low speed near water surface,a new method for design of roll motion controller is proposed in order to restrain wave disturbance effectively and improve roll stabilizing performance.Robust control is applied,which is based on uncertain nonlinear horizontal motion model of AUV and the principle of zero speed fin stabilizer.Feedback linearization approach is used to transform the complex nonlinear system into a comparatively simple linear system.For parameter uncertainty of motion model,the controller is designed with mixed-sensitivity method based on H-infinity robust control theory.Simulation results show better robustness improved by this control method for roll stabilizing of AUV navigating near water surface.     

基于内模原理的汽车主动悬挂系统的减振控制

研究路面粗糙度扰动作用下的汽车主动悬挂系统的减振控制问题。首先简化单自由度四分之一悬挂系统模型,建立路面粗糙度扰动模型。然后基于内模原理设计汽车主动悬挂系统的减振控制结构,并利用线性系统的极点配置方法设计系统的减振控制律。最后利用数字仿真验证了减振控制律的有效性。     

Current and Future Applications of 3-D Global Earth-Ionosphere Models Based on the Full-Vector Maxwell’s Equations FDTD Method

Advances in computing technologies in recent decades have provided a means of generating and performing highly sophisticated computational simulations of electromagnetic phenomena. In particular, just after the turn of the twenty-first century, improvements to computing infrastructures provided for the first time the opportunity to conduct advanced, high-resolution three-dimensional full-vector Maxwell’s equations investigations of electromagnetic propagation throughout the global Earth-ionosphere spherical volume. These models, based on the finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) method, are capable of including such details as the Earth’s topography and bathymetry, as well as arbitrary horizontal/vertical geometrical and electrical inhomogeneities and anisotropies of the ionosphere, lithosphere, and oceans. Studies at this level of detail simply are not achievable using analytical methods. The goal of this paper is to provide an historical overview and future prospectus of global FDTD computational research for both natural and man-made electromagnetic phenomena around the world. Current and future applications of global FDTD models relating to lightning sources and radiation, Schumann resonances, hypothesized earthquake precursors, remote sensing, and space weather are discussed.

Geomagnetic control of the foF2 long-term trends

Further development of the method proposed by Danilov and Mikhailov is presented. The method is applied to reveal the foF2 long-term trends on 30 Northern Hemisphere ionosonde stations. Most of them show significant foF2 trends. A pronounced dependence of trend magnitude on geomagnetic (invariant) latitude is confirmed. Periods of negative/positive foF2 trends corresponding to the periods of long-term increasing/decreasing geomagnetic activity are revealed for the first time. Pronounced diurnal variations of the foF2 trend magnitude are found. Strong positive foF2 trends in the post-midnight-early-morning LT sector and strong negative trends during daytime hours are found on the sub-auroral stations for the period with increasing geomagnetic activity. On the contrary middle and lower latitude stations demonstrate negative trends in the early-morning LT sector and small negative or positive trends during daytime hours for the same period. All the morphological features revealed of the foF2 trends may be explained in the framework of contemporary F2-region storm mechanisms. This newly proposed F2-layer geomagnetic storm concept casts serious doubts on the hypothesis relating the F2-layer parameter long-term trends to the thermosphere cooling due to the greenhouse effect.     

不同时间尺度上的热带海气耦合扰动

本文从热带地球流体运动的物理特征出发,建立了适合热带地区特点的海气耦合模式方程组并对之进行了系统的尺度分析,指出时间尺度不同的运动其受控的物理过程各异。基于这种时间尺度的差异,我们有可能将不同时间尺度的运动分开来研究。计算结果表明,去掉海洋中的波动过程,仅仅考虑与海洋表面温度场的变化相联系的扰动形式会对耦合系统及耦合扰动的性质造成很大影响。由此看来,Ｎｅｅｌｉｎ所谓的“快波极限”不是一种好的近似。