华南地震区的某些丛集特性

对东南沿海地区54次中强以上地震(Ms≥43/4级以上地震)的时间间隔序列,计算了时间变异系数δ值,利用δ值研究地震的丛集特性;从1943年至今的时间变异系数计算结果为1.2,说明该时间段明显处于丛集状态.对东南沿海地震带通过有序样品序列聚类分析得出了较为合理四个地震活跃幕的划分结果,各个活跃幕地震的累积频次与发震系统内部时间的关系基本符合N=ctd.四个活跃幕的非线性时间结构演化幂指数d变化范围分布在0.6到0.8左右.Ms6.0以上的强震也基本符合该关系式.只是其活跃幕演化幂指数d为0.47.     

青藏高原活动地块地震频次的Hurst指数分析

应用地震活动频次的Hurst指数研究青藏高原各活动地块的地震预报问题。结果表明,对1970年以来各地块的地震作回溯性预报检验,得到的R值均能通过97.5%置信水平的检验,因而地震活动频次的Hurst指数的研究在青藏高原各地块的地震预报中有一定的预报效能。     

一种缝洞型碳酸盐岩储层胶结指数m计算新方法

碳酸盐岩储集空间类型多样、孔隙结构复杂,具有很强的非均质性,使得传统的阿尔奇公式应用效果不佳,主要原因之一在于胶结指数m的无法准确确定.基于多孔介质理论,在深入分析不同孔隙空间对储层导电贡献外,进一步考虑了孔隙形态对导电性能的影响,尤其是裂缝倾角,进而给出了全新的计算胶结指数m的方法,并深入剖析组成碳酸盐岩复杂孔隙空间的各部分对胶结指数m的影响.认为对于物性较差的缝洞型储层,裂缝倾角对胶结指数m的影响很大,当裂缝角度较小时,裂缝会使胶结指数m变小,而当裂缝角度较大时,裂缝反而会使胶结指数m变大;当储层物性很好时,裂缝倾角的影响则可以忽略.实际应用表明,利用基于裂缝倾角的多孔介质模型得到的胶结指数m所计算的含水饱和度精度相比传统方法有较大提高,且该方法适用于任何类型的储层,具有很好的应用性.     

甘肃三个台地磁日变赫斯特指数的时序特征

选用甘肃嘉峪关、兰州和天水地磁台2011—2013年的观测数据,重点研究地磁垂直向日变化波形下行段的赫斯特指数变化的时序特征。结果表明,在此3年内,嘉峪关台和兰州台地磁垂直向日变化波形下行段的赫斯特指数变化范围分别是0.08和0.06,天水台在2012年存在一个赫斯特指数幅度超过正常变化范围的过程,在此过程完成后的2013年7月22日,在距离天水130km的漳县和岷县交界发生M6.6地震。结合其他学者的研究结果,认为这一赫斯特指数的异常变化过程可能反映了区域性地球深部(下地壳与上地幔)热物质运移变化而引起地球局部居里面变化,也可能是地震孕育过程在地磁日变中的表征。这一发现有益于进一步研究地磁日变异常的机理、震磁关系以及地震预报的探索。     

Characterizing the Spatio-temporal Dynamics and Variability in Climate Extremes over the Tibetan Plateau during 1960-2012

Extreme climate events play an important role in studies of long-term climate change. As the Earth’s Third Pole, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is sensitive to climate change and variation. In this study on the TP, the spatiotemporal changes in climate extreme indices (CEIs) are analyzed based on daily maximum and minimum surface air temperatures and precipitation at 98 meteorological stations, most with elevations of at least 4000 m above sea level, during 1960-2012. Fifteen temperature extreme indices (TEIs) and eight precipitation extreme indices (PEIs) were calculated. Then, their long-term change patterns, from spatial and temporal perspectives, were determined at regional, eco-regional and station levels. The entire TP region exhibits a significant warming trend, as reflected by the TEIs. The regional cold days and nights show decreasing trends at rates of -8.9 d (10 yr)^-1 (days per decade) and -17.3 d (10 yr)^-1, respectively. The corresponding warm days and nights have increased by 7.6 d (10 yr)^-1 and 12.5 d (10 yr)^-1, respectively. At the station level, the majority of stations indicate statistically significant trends for all TEIs, but they show spatial heterogeneity. The eco-regional TEIs show patterns that are consistent with the entire TP. The growing season has become longer at a rate of 5.3 d (10 yr)^-1. The abrupt change points for CEIs were examined, and they were mainly distributed during the 1980s and 1990s. The PEIs on the TP exhibit clear fluctuations and increasing trends with small magnitudes. The annual total precipitation has increased by 2.8 mm (10 yr)^-1 (not statistically significant). Most of the CEIs will maintain a persistent trend, as indicated by their Hurst exponents. The developing trends of the CEIs do not show a corresponding change with increasing altitude. In general, the warming trends demonstrate an asymmetric pattern reflected by the rapid increase in the warming trends of the cold TEIs, which are of greater magnitudes than those of the warm TEIs. This finding indicates a positive shift in the distribution of the daily minimum temperatures throughout the TP. Most of the PEIs show weak increasing trends, which are not statistically significant. This work aims to delineate a comprehensive picture of the extreme climate conditions over the TP that can enhance our understanding of its changing climate.     

Research on the Stability of the Circular Restricted Three-body Problem with Radiation and Oblateness

The velocity scaling factor method based on the least squares principle is regarded as the most efficient, stable, and widely-used method among all the manifold correction methods. The stability of the restricted three-body problem where the primary body is a source of radiation and the secondary body is an oblate spheroid is discussed by using the velocity scaling factor method. The numerical simulations suggest that (1) the number of the chaotic orbits will increase if only the oblate spheroid perturbation is considered; (2) the number of the regular orbits will increase if only considering the radiation pressure; (3) when both the radiation and oblateness perturbation exist, the radiation plays a dominant role, and the probability of regular motion of the system will increase.     

Eddy-induced cross-shelf phytoplankton transport along the downwelling coast off Western Australia

Along the downwelling coast off Western Australia, late-autumn/early-winter chlorophyll a blooms are observed on the continental shelf south of Shark Bay (26°S), in contrast with summer blooms in the north. The late-autumn/early-winter blooms are in phase with seasonal strengthening of the Leeuwin Current and its eddy field. Anticyclonic eddies entrain the high phytoplankton biomass waters from the shelf and transport offshore into the oligotrophic, subtropical marine environment, as revealed by coalescing the finite-size Lyapunov exponent (FSLE) of the surface geostrophic flow field and the satellite chlorophyll a images.     

一个切换混沌系统的设计与实现

利用反控制法构造了1个新的混沌系统,分析新系统的平衡点及在平衡点的特征值,分形维数,Lyapunov指数等性质,设计1个由2个混沌系统组成的可切换的实际电路并进行实验,通过1个开关选择器,电路可以实现2个子系统的功能,观察到2个子系统在各个相平面的混沌吸引子.     

最近邻耦合网络的时空混沌同步研究

本文进行了最近邻网络的时空混沌同步研究.以时空混沌系统作为网络的节点,基于Lyapunov稳定性定理,通过确定网络的最大Lyapunov指数,得到了实现网络完全同步的条件.采用Fisher-Kolmogorov时空混沌系统作为网络节点实例进行了仿真模拟,获得了理想的同步效果.进一步研究了有界噪声影响下网络的同步性能,结果显示它具有较强的抗干扰能力.     

渤海及北黄海气溶胶分布特征和大气校正研究

根据2003-2005年三年夏季渤海及北黄海海上调查资料,使用浑浊度系数α和埃斯特朗指数β描述气溶胶的光学厚度,对该海域上空气溶胶分布特征进行了分析.调查数据显示,浑浊度系数α的范围是0.03～2.76,大部分站点α集中分布在1个比较小的范围内;埃斯特朗指数β的范围是0.12～1.64,其分布较分散.在β=1.3处存在一个β最大值,在β<0.8的范围分布相对均匀.分析还发现,气溶胶的光学厚度与标准化气压有明显的负相关(相关系数为-0.42),特别是二者对应变化曲线的跨零点基本重合.在数据分析的基础上,作者提出了两尺度气溶胶的光学厚度模型以及对应的两尺度气溶胶散射的反射率模型,这样可将传统气溶胶模型中乘幂形式的两个变量结合改为两个变量线性组合,从而将气溶胶散射的反射率并入整体反演公式,使之有可能被用于水色遥感的线性系统算法,从而避免传统大气校正的过程,这为二类水体水色反演提供了一种新思路.