基于小波分解的西太平洋副热带高压模糊推理预测

基于NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,讨论了西太平洋副高脊线与其前期位置的相互关系,并在此基础上用小波分解和自适应模糊推理方法,对副高脊线进行集成建模和预测.基于小波分解重构的副高脊线短期活动集成预测结果表明,该方法可有效降低预报难度,明显改进和提高了副高脊线短期活动的预报准确率.     

A Model-Based Approach to Semi-Automated Reconstruction of Buildings from Aerial Images

Automated reconstruction of building objects from aerial images is a complex problem due to the diversity of buildings as well as noise and low contrast of images, which are the results of distant photography, atmospheric effects and poor illumination. In this paper, a semi-automated approach to the reconstruction of parametric building models from aerial images is presented, which works with line segments extracted from the image. The model is selected interactively from a library of parametric models. A perceptual grouping technique is used to select the most significant image lines in terms of relations such as proximity and parallelism. Model lines are searched for the same relations as in the grouped image lines, and the corresponding lines undergo a matching procedure, which determines whether or not a match can be found between the given model and image lines. An experiment with aerial images of flat-roof and gable-roof buildings is shown and its results indicate the robustness and efficiency of the proposed approach.     

Indicator Simulation Accounting for Multiple-Point Statistics

Geostatistical simulation aims at reproducing the variability of the real underlying phenomena. When nonlinear features or large-range connectivity is present, the traditional variogram-based simulation approaches do not provide good reproduction of those features. Connectivity of high and low values is often critical for grades in a mineral deposit. Multiple-point statistics can help to characterize these features. The use of multiple-point statistics in geostatistical simulation was proposed more than 10 years ago, on the basis of the use of training images to extract the statistics. This paper proposes the use of multiple-point statistics extracted from actual data. A method is developed to simulate continuous variables. The indicator kriging probabilities used in sequential indicator simulation are modified by probabilities extracted from multiple-point configurations. The correction is done under the assumption of conditional independence. The practical implementation of the method is illustrated with data from a porphyry copper mine.     

黄河三角洲芦苇湿地生态修复效果评价研究

基于黄河三角洲芦苇湿地退化现状及所实施的生态修复工程,以正负参照系选取了4块不同修复年限的样地,从湿地生态系统的环境质量、结构与功能的角度构建了湿地修复效果评价指标体系,利用层次分析法确定各指标权重,利用模糊综合评价法对黄河三角洲盐渍化芦苇湿地的修复效果进行定量评价。结果表明:黄河三角洲芦苇湿地4年修复期的样地评价得分为4.01,2年修复期的样地评价得分为3.16,对应评价结果分别为"优"和"良"的等级。相比负向对照,修复区的水体指标和土壤指标参数显著改善,而植被生物量和密度与自然样地还有较大差距,说明生物群落的建立需要更长的时间;同时,湿地水资源管理是该区芦苇湿地生态修复工程的关键,应根据芦苇不同生长期的需水量,制定合理的抽灌制度,达到洗碱脱盐和植被建群的双重目的。     

Nonparametric Estimation of Undrained Shear Strength for Normally Consolidated Clays

For decades, various well-known empirical correlations have been established and commonly used to estimate the undrained shear strength of normally consolidated clays in geotechnical practice. However, there are still many contradictory cases regarding the validity of these correlations, so their applicability and reliability are questionable. In this study, an extensive geotechnical database for normally consolidated clays has been compiled. Next, a Bayesian nonparametric method is exploited to identify the most critical soil index properties in inferring the undrained shear strength and a new predictive model is proposed. Finally, the performance of the proposed predictive model is assessed and compared with two well-known correlations using an independent testing database. It confirms that the proposed model not only possesses high predictability, but also provides superior performance over other existing empirical correlations.     

鄂尔多斯盆地CO2地质封存适宜性与潜力评价

针对目前利用层次分析法对CO₂地质封存进行适宜性评价过程中,极少结合研究区域实际计算低层次评价指标权重,对适宜性评价结果又缺少进一步的分析,结合鄂尔多斯盆地的地质特征,通过计算指标组成权重和适宜性得分对盆地开展了CO₂地质封存适宜性评价,并以适宜区杏子川油田长4+5盖层为例,开展了盖层封闭性评价实验研究。同时,采用相应的计算方法对鄂尔多斯盆地深部咸水层和油藏的CO₂地质封存潜力进行了计算。结果表明：鄂尔多斯盆地在三叠系开展CO₂地质封存的适宜性最好,石炭-二叠系和奥陶系则次之;杏子川油田三叠系延长组长4+5盖层对区域开展CO₂地质封存具备良好的封闭性;鄂尔多斯盆地深部咸水层和油藏的CO₂有效封存量分别为1.33×10 ¹⁰ t和1.91×10 ⁹ t,且在延长石油吴起、靖边及杏子川油田共有56个CO₂地质封存适宜区,其CO₂有效封存量可达1.77×10 ⁸ t。     

层次分析法在下垫面因子影响沙尘暴危险度研究中的应用

沙尘暴是一种危害严重的气象灾害,其形成依赖于大气环流和沙质地表两种不同密度的物理介质的相互作用,风力条件和下垫面的性质是影响沙尘暴强度和危害程度的两个重要因素。减轻沙尘暴危害的有效方法就是改善沙尘暴源地的下垫面状况,但这需要评估下垫面各因子在不同天气、气候背景条件下对沙尘暴发生的影响程度。从下垫面的角度出发,以内蒙古中西部地区为例,利用气象资料和实测数据,应用AHP方法对下垫面定性与定量因子进行综合分析,得出不同地区下垫面因子对沙尘暴发生作用的权重,为从下垫面角度研究沙尘暴危险度奠定基础。     

Spatial analysis of water quality and its suitability in farming giant freshwater prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) in Negeri Sembilan region,Peninsular Malaysia

Finding potential sites for resilient prawn production in the tropical environment that also prevents wastage of natural resources is not an easy task. The purpose of this study is to evaluate water quality suitability for prawn farming in Negeri Sembilan of Peninsular Malaysia based on Geographic Information System (GIS). To achieve this goal, numerous criteria including sources of water, water temperature, water pH, sources of pollution, salinity, soil texture and availability of phytoplankton criteria were considered for the modelling process. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique was performed to standardize the criteria and the weighting process. The weighted overlay of indicators and results were accomplished by applying the Multi‐Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method in GIS. It was indicated that the Negeri Sembilan area has potential for prawn farming. The results showed that about 25 per cent (163 056.93 ha) of the area was most suitable for prawn farming, about 58 per cent (384 656.88 ha) was considered moderately suitable, while 18 per cent (117 633.49 ha) was regarded as least suitable. The study concluded that the multi‐criteria decision analysis of water quality for prawn farming is vital for regional economic planning in the Negeri Sembilan area and also significant when establishing a model for aquaculture development.     

基于层次分析法的南麂列岛海域人工鱼礁社会效果评价

人工鱼礁建设具有生态效果、经济效果和社会效果。为科学指导人工鱼礁的建设方向,进一步促进海洋牧场建设以及海洋渔业资源和海洋生态环境的可持续发展,文章采用改进的层次分析法,从人工鱼礁与社会的适应性、对社会环境的影响、对社会生活的影响以及对其他行业发展的影响4个方面,选取政策符合性等10个评价指标,通过问卷调查的方式,对南麂列岛海域人工鱼礁的社会效果进行评价,填补该研究领域的空白。研究结果表明:根据各评价指标的权重和效果判定值,南麂列岛海域人工鱼礁产生了较好的社会效果,其中海洋生态环境、项目长远性、改善渔民生活质量和海洋捕捞业等指标发挥作用较大;未来将开展长期和连续的调查研究,提高评价可信度。     

A novel spatial index using spatial analyses and hierarchical fuzzy expert system for obtaining green TOD: a case study in Tehran city

Sustainable development is a vital and challenging factor for managing urban growth smartly. This factor contains three main components, namely economic growth, ecological protection and social justice. Green Transit-Oriented Development (GTOD) is a consummate planning approach in line with those components. Implementation of GTOD in an urban area is underpinned by its quantification. Therefore, a quantitative spatial index based on several indicators related to TOD and Green urbanism concepts should be developed. In this study, Geo-spatial Information Science and hierarchical fuzzy inference system (HFIS) were employed to calculate the indicators and aggregate them, respectively. In order to showcase the feasibility of the proposed method, it was implemented in a case study area in the City of Tehran, Iran. The result of this method is an integrated spatial GTOD index, which measures the neighbourhoods’ GTOD levels. These measurements specify weaknesses and strengths of neighbourhoods’ factors. Therefore, this index helps decision-makers to plan neighbourhoods based on land use and public transit views. Additionally, the HFIS method helps decision-makers to consider criteria and indicators with their inherent uncertainties and aggregate them with much fewer rules. For evaluating the results, the developed GTOD index was assessed with municipal action planning and attraction maps. According to the outcomes of the assessment, it is concluded that the proposed method is adequately robust and efficient for smart and sustainable urban planning.