Application of a modified pattern informatics method to forecasting the locations of future large earthquakes in the central Japan

We propose a modification of the Pattern Informatics (PI) method that has been developed for forecasting the locations of future large earthquakes. This forecast is based on analyzing the space–time patterns of past earthquakes to find possible locations where future large earthquakes are expected to occur. A characteristic of our modification is that the effect of errors in the locations of past earthquakes on the output forecast is reduced. We apply the modified and original methods to seismicity in the central part of Japan and compared the forecast performances. We also invoke the Relative Intensity (RI) of seismic activity and randomized catalogs to constitute null hypotheses. We do statistical tests using the Molchan and Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) diagrams and the log-likelihoods and show that the forecast for using the modified PI method is generally better than the competing original-PI forecast and the forecasts from the null hypotheses. Using the bootstrap technique with Monte-Carlo simulations, we further confirm that earthquake sequences simulated based on the modified-PI forecast can be statistically the same as the real earthquake sequence so that the forecast is acceptable. The main and innovative science in this paper is the modification of the PI method and the demonstration of its applicability, showing a considerable promise as an intermediate-term earthquake forecasting tool.     

Temporal patterns of arid-humid transitions in the south-eastern Arabian Peninsula based on optical dating

The Rub Al Khali aeolian system of the Arabian Peninsula is the world's largest erg. While the region is presently hyper-arid, evidence for multiple past humid periods has been documented in previous studies. Radiocarbon dating of lacustrine, travertine and palaeogroundwater deposits suggests that the climate was humid at 10–6 and 35–25 ka. These phases have been associated with summer rainfall increases occurring in tandem with an intensification and northward migration of the monsoon system during Northern hemisphere precessional maxima. Published optical dating studies have focused on preserved sand dune and aeolianite deposits to establish ages for the intervening arid phases. Here we present a summary of this work and additional optical dating results for samples of aeolian sediment from a deep drill core, which provides insights into the style of barchan dune accretion in the Liwa region of the United Arab Emirates. The large dune accreted rapidly during the mid-late Holocene. The results suggest that the transitions from humid to arid conditions and resulting accumulation of aeolian sediment in the form of large bedforms occurred abruptly at around 6 ka. Further aeolian sedimentation has not been constant since that time, with initial gradual dune growth followed by rapid vertical accretion, and possible termination of accumulation around c. 2 ka.     

北京流动人口聚落的形态、结构与功能

概括总结了近年来北京出现的流动人口聚落的形态结构与功能,并对其演化特点和形成机制作出了分析。     

地下电磁波法多重信息平面的场值分布模式

地下电磁波法的解释工作，原用的直射线代数重建层析方法，从理论分析即能看出。存在着对小目标反映不明显的局限性．另一方面，实际观测到的场值是叠加场，包含目标的散射信息，在多重情况下有明显的规律，可以表示成一定的模式．借助正演，反映出这些场值的规律，这是建立模型模式的过程，它为一种新的解释方法──模式识别，打下了基础．     

Multivariate Analysis of Species Distribution: A Survey on Occurence of Mangrove Molluscs in the Bonny and New Calabar Rivers of the Niger Delta Multivariate Analyse von Verbreitungsmustern: Ein Überblick über das Vorkommen von Mangroven-Mollusken im Bonny River und New Calabar River des Niger-Deltas

Studies on distribution and habitats of mangrove molluscs of the Bonny and New Calabar rivers (Niger Delta) were made at ten shore stations from the river mouth to the tidal fresh water zone. Forty-three species were collected and thirty-nine were identified. Investigations into tidal zonation patterns showed that molluscs inhabited the high, mid and low intertidal stretches of the shore. In the tidal fresh water and low-salinity brackish water zone, the low intertidal is poor in molluscs. Many species have restricted salinity ranges occuring either in the high or low salinity limits. The collected data on occurence of species were analyzed by different methods from multivariate data analysis, namely cluster analysis, principal component analysis and partial least squares. These allowed to visualize structures among mollusc species and stations according to distribution patterns and to estimate the degree of relation between these patterns and salinity.     

热带海洋SSTA的POP中性预测方案

用主振荡型（ Ｐ Ｏ Ｐ）方法分析了热带洋区月平均海表温度异常（ Ｓ Ｓ Ｔ Ａ）。结果表明,最重要的 ４ 个传播型 Ｐ Ｏ Ｐ对与 Ｅｌ Ｎｉｎｏ／ Ｌａ Ｎｉｎａ 事件关系密切,说明这类事件具有复杂的时空结构。在此基础上,给出了一个能定量地综合多个传播型 Ｐ Ｏ Ｐ对作用的 Ｐ Ｏ Ｐ中性预测方案。非独立样本和独立样本试验表明,它具有 ４ 个月的预测时效,且其预测能力在 Ｓ Ｓ Ｔ 强异常的 Ｅｌ Ｎｉｎｏ、 Ｌａ Ｎｉｎａ 事件阶段强于弱异常的非 Ｅｌ Ｎｉｎｏ／ Ｌａ Ｎｉｎａ 事件阶段。     

地理信息关联规则挖掘算法的设计与应用

本文着重就地理信息数据挖掘中的两种模式：关联规则和序列模式的概念和作用进行了探讨，阐述了在关联规则中寻找大项集算法的实现，以及在数据挖掘的序列模式基础上对寻找大项集算法的结果进行了改进和优化，使数据的关联规则与时间和序列之间建立了密切的联系，从而更好的实现了对于大规模地理信息数据库中数据的挖掘和利用。     

Namaqualand—A brief overview of the physical and floristic environment

This paper provides a brief introduction to the physical environment of Namaqualand as well as an overview of patterns of plant diversity. The diverse array of parent material and geological processes that have shaped the region since the break up of Gondwanaland have created a complex, and sometimes dynamic physical environment, that is partly responsible for the patterns and processes observed in the biota today. The contemporary climate is characterised by relatively reliable, albeit low (50–250 mm pa), winter rainfall (>60% winter precipitation) arriving between May and September. East of the central mountains, tropical thunderstorms penetrate the region in late summer (February–April). The presence of the cold Atlantic Ocean in the west not only moderates temperatures throughout Namaqualand (mean max summer temperature <30 °C), but also provides alternative sources of moisture in the form of coastal fog and heavy dew experienced in winter months. Recent analyses show that the flora of the Succulent Karoo is part of the Cape Floral Kingdom, now termed the Greater Cape Floral Kingdom. It is one of only two desert regions recognised as a global biodiversity hot-spot and contains an estimated 6356 plant species in 168 families and 1002 genera. Namaqualand, which comprises about one quarter of the area of the Succulent Karoo, contains about 3500 species in 135 families and 724 genera, with about 25% of this flora endemic to Namaqualand. This remarkable diversity, however, is not distributed evenly throughout the region, but is concentrated in many local centres of endemism usually associated either with quartzite mountain complexes or lag-gravel plains (quartz-patches). A major exception to the general pattern of centres of diversity is the true Fynbos vegetation of the highest Kamiesberg peaks where rainfall exceeds 400 mm pa. Suggested determinants of the region's exceptional floral diversity include the complex physical environment, a unique past and present climate and the region's diverse fauna, most notably insects. The challenge for the current inhabitants and scientists working in the region is to develop a better understanding of this ecosystem so that they will be equipped to deal with the challenges posed by the demands for land and the prospect of global climate change.     

韶关市降雪天气的分析和预报

全市性降雪是韶关市的灾害性天气之一。本文分析其气候特点、环流背景以及天气形势，并应用数值预报产品和实时资料相结合总结建立全市性降雪的短期预报指标。     

山东区域汛期旱涝预测概论

对1951－2000年期间汛期（6－8月）山东区域旱涝与全国主要多雨带的8个分布类型的逐年对应关系进行了具体的对比和论述。并对烟台、青岛、潍坊、济南、临沂、菏泽等6个地区汛期旱涝的天文、海洋、大气环流和气象要素等方面的预报物理因子进行了全面的普查、筛选、精选和综合分析，并分别建立了汛期降水量预报物理方程。并以青岛地区为例，对汛期降水理的多种交叉学科的预报物理因子进行了最优集成，为青岛地区和水量和旱涝建立了分多级的可操作的预报物理模型。该文优选出来的汛期降水的多学科物理因子对短期气候预测有重要的学术意义，其中所建立的预报物理方程和预报物理模型对山东省各区汛期旱涝的季度和年度预报有重要的应用价值。