卫星估计降水量产品的优化处理及分区检验

经检验发现,由国家卫星气象中心反演并投入业务使用的GMS-5卫星红外估计降水量产品性能在我国存在一定的区域差异。利用实测雨量对卫星估计降水量产品进行优化处理,结果显示优化后的卫星估计降水量在全国各气候分区都有不同程度的改善。     

一次梅雨锋暴雨过程的中尺度对比模拟分析

使用新一代细网格WRF中尺度数值模式和MM5（V3）模式,对2003年7月4～6日发生在江淮流域的一次梅雨锋暴雨过程进行了数值模拟对比分析。结果表明：WRF和MM5都能较好的模拟这次暴雨过程雨带的分布和走向,而WRF能更好的模拟降水中心的位置和雨量;与暴雨过程相联系的低空急流和涡度场等分布特征的模拟,WRF模式亦优于MM5模式。此外,在云贵高原东麓山地,与WRF模式相比,MM5模式在低层模拟出虚假的低压环流,这可能与两模式所采用的垂直坐标差异有关。对WRF的模拟结果分析发现,700hPa湿位涡异常区与暴雨发生区对应很好。     

A Discrete Wavenumber Boundary Element Method for study of the 3-D response 2-D scatterers

A mathematical formulation of the 2·5D elastodynamic scattering problem is presented and validated. The formulation is a straightforward extension of the Discrete Wave number Boundary Integral Equation Method (DWBIEM) originally proposed by Kawase¹ for 2D scattering problems and subsequently extended to the 3D problem by Kim and Papageorgiou.² It is demonstrated that the Green's function which is appropriate for a boundary formulation of the 2·5D elastodynamic scattering problem is the one corresponding to a unit force moving on a straight line with constant velocity. Such a Green's function is derived in the present study. The formulation may be used to study the wavefields in models of sedimentary deposits (e.g. valleys) or topography (e.g. canyons or ridges) with a 2D variation in structure but obliquely incident plane waves. The advantage of a 2·5D formulation is that it provides the means for calculations of 3D wavefields in scattering problems by requiring a storage comparable to that of the corresponding 2D calculations. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of urbanization on runoff characteristics of the On-Cheon Stream watershed in Pusan,Korea

This study investigated the effect of urbanization on runoff from the On-Cheon Stream watershed in Pusan, Korea. This watershed has been experiencing considerable urbanization since the 1960s. There are two gauging stations in the watershed. For one of the stations there are recent flow data and for the other flow data were observed in the past. A linear reservoir model was chosen and runoff was analysed for several flood events. The linear reservoir model has been found to generate flood hydrographs accurately for both gauging stations, and its applicability to the study area has also been established. Using two methods of computing effective rainfall or rainfall excess (ϕ-index and constant percentage method), the results of runoff analyses were investigated. The ϕ-index method yielded better results than the constant percentage method. A comparison of hydrographs observed in the past with the simulation results at the Ie-Sup bridge site revealed that the peak discharge increased and the mean lag time of the study area decreased owing to urbanization over the past two decades. It is also possible to evaluate the effect of urbanization quantitatively. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mechanisms of salinization in a middle Eocene lake in the Tanggu area of the Huanghua Depression

The Sha-3-5 Submember of the Shahejie Formation in the Tanggu area of the Huanghua Depression contains analcime-bearing dolomite, indicating salinization of an ancient lake during deposition. Solar evaporation and hydrothermal salinization have both been proposed as ways to generate these saline conditions. Based on a comprehensive analysis of core data, thin sections, spore and pollen data, elemental geochemistry, pyrolysis results, and vitrinite reflectance, we assessed the mechanisms driving salinization in light of provenance evolution, geothermal evolution, paleoclimate, mineral responses to evaporation, and the relationship between fluid temperature and salinity. The vertical profiles of ΣREE, Eu/*Eu, and T_max exhibit little variation, and the maximum paleotemperatures attained by organic matter are comparable to present-day drill hole temperature. No major changes in provenance or paleotemperature and no petrological fabrics that would indicate a hydrothermal input are observed in the studied section. However, evidence for a semi-humid to semi-arid climate, primary evaporitic textures and structures, and a positive relationship between fluid temperature and salinity all support evaporation as the primary mechanism driving rising salinity. Solar evaporation, rather than hydrothermal eruption, appears to have been the primary factor driving lake salinization during middle Eocene deposition of the dolomitic Sha-3-5 Submember.     

Enhanced Oxygen Isotope Determination in Uranium Oxides Using BrF5 Fluorination

A new method for accurate determination of oxygen isotopes in uranium oxides encountered in the nuclear fuel cycle was developed using the conventional BrF₅ fluorination technique. Laser‐assisted fluorination was tested for comparison. We focused on fine powders of triuranium octoxide (U₃O₈), uranium dioxide (UO_2±x with 0 ≤ x ≤ 0.25), uranium trioxide (UO₃.nH₂O, with 0.8 ≤ n ≤ 2) and diuranates (M₂U₂O₇.nH₂O, with M = NH₄, Na or Mg_0.5 and 0 ≤ n ≤ 6). Fluorination at room temperature and heating under vacuum at 150 °C are shown to eliminate both adsorbed and structural water from the powder samples. Precision fit for purpose of δ¹⁸O values (± 0.3‰, 1s) and oxygen yields (close to 100%) were obtained for U₃O₈ and UO₂ where oxygen is only bound to uranium. A lower precision was observed for UO₃.nH₂O and M₂U₂O₇.nH₂O where oxygen is both present in the structural H₂O and bonded to uranium and where the extracted O_2(g) can be contaminated by NF₃ and NO_x compounds. Laser‐assisted fluorination gave shifted δ¹⁸O values between +0.8 and +1.4‰ for U₃O₈, around ?0.8‰ for UO₃.nH₂O and between ?3.9 and ?4.5‰ for M₂U₂O₇.nH₂O (± 0.3‰, 1s) compared with the conventional method.     

The prediction for seismicity trends of M≥8 in the world by analysis of seismicity patterns

After completion of a study on predicting risky zones of earthquake of M≥8 for 1-3 years in the mainland of China,which was supported by Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation(D07018 and D08009),a further study was extended to that of greater magnitudes in the world.Based on the historical earthquake cases,we finished the research report,forecasting global earthquakes with magnitude more than 8.0 using the image analysis of seismicity.In this research report,we summarize 11 abnormal seismicity images for predicting earthquake of M≥8.0 around the world.In our research report,we predicted earthquakes of M≥8.0 from June 2009 to June 2014,the medium term predicting within 5 years period.Among these 5 predictive areas,three earthquakes occurred,which is Samoa M8.1 Earthquake on 29 September 2009,Talca M8.5 Earthquake on 27 January 2010,Chile,and Eastern Sendai M9.0 Earthquake on 11 March 2011,Japan respectively.Here we introduce the main items of the image analysis of seismicity and we predict three earthquakes and think that the image analysis of seismicity can be of help.     

傅里叶变换在深州井资料处理中的应用

深州井水位日常观测中,经常会因为仪器供电不稳、雷击等原因出现一些幅度很大的脉冲、突跳及数据缺测,严重影响了观测资料的内在质量。本文采用数字信号处理技术[1]对深州井水位资料进行分析处理,首先使用分段线性插值法对缺测数据进行插值处理,然后用快速傅里叶变换对水位数据进行频谱分析,绘制振幅谱,分析水位数据中的不同周期成分,选取恰当的截止频率进行滤波处理,去除了干扰,获得了井水位的变化动态,提高了资料质量。最后应用滤波后的水位数据做一些震例分析。     

一次蒙古冷涡影响下宁夏强对流天气分析

2004年6月14、15日连续2 d宁夏大部地区出现了强雷阵雨天气,引黄灌区局部地区遭受冰雹袭击。利用常规气象资料、多普勒雷达产品等资料,对此次过程进行了天气学分析,分析表明这是一次典型的蒙古冷涡旋转东移南压造成的宁夏连续性强对流天气过程。并根据一般性雷雨与伴有冰雹的强雷雨天气发生时雷达回波的差异,统计得到宁夏发生强对流性天气的监测预警指标,同时利用宁夏中尺度区域模式MM5预报产品对其相关物理量进行了模拟分析,得到了有价值的结果。     

过去60年中3—5年时间尺度的强ENSO过程与平流层环流异常的滞后耦合及其机理

基于1950—2009年60a月平均Nino3指数和NCEP/NCAR第一套等压面再分析资料,关注3—5a时间尺度的强ENSO过程与平流层环流年际异常的时空联系及其机理,通过对此期间出现在3次持续强ENSO阶段中的11次3—5a时间尺度的强ENSO过程的诊断表明,平流层环流的年际尺度异常与3—5a时间尺度的强ENSO循环过程密切耦合。极夜急流强度趋于在ENSO暖/冷峰值之后减弱/加强,最大异常值多滞后ENSO峰值约1/4周期(接近1a),出现在ENSO峰值之后的下一年冬季;且3—5a时间尺度的ENSO峰值愈强,滞后约1/4周期出现的热带外平流层纬向风的年际异常也愈强;平均而言,这种年际时间尺度的耦合关系,也对实际的季节尺度平流层极涡振荡的强度和性质有显著的调制作用。进一步研究这种滞后耦合关系与年际时间尺度的行星波活动异常的联系发现,在暖ENSO峰值所在的当年冬季,对流层高层被强迫出年际时间尺度的太平洋-北美(PNA)型异常环流,而与冷ENSO峰值相对应的是相反的太平洋-北美异常型;这种太平洋-北美型与平流层热带外地区的行星波1波的发展相联系;在ENSO峰值之后的下一年冬季,太平洋-北美型环流减弱但对流层高层的主要异常分布在中高纬度,多对应着平流层行星波2波的显著增强,与平流层极区最强的高度异常相联系。行星波活动所引起的经向动量通量和经向热量通量的辐合、辐散异常对平流层滞后异常响应的贡献,存在显著的阶段性差异,在不同的阶段两者可以共同起作用,也可以分别起作用。