Optimum Sample Size to Detect Perturbation Effects: The Importance of Statistical Power Analysis – A Critique

Abstract. The current article describes statistical power analysis as an efficient strategy for the estimation of the optimum sample size. The principle aim is constructively to criticise and enrich the results presented by Mouillot et al. (1999) , who estimate the optimum sample size for evaluating possible perturbations. The authors did not make any reference to statistical power analysis, even though their objective clearly went beyond a simple stock evaluation to assess management strategies in a particular marine ecosystem. Surprisingly, they proposed (a priori) an ANOVA design to test a hypothesis considering both space and temporal scales. However, the authors did not cover important topics related with power analysis and the precautionary principle, both used into environment impact assessment programmes for marine ecosystems. Based on their results and on statistical power analysis, it is demonstrated that the variability (dispersion statistics), a key factor they used to estimate the sample size, is less relevant than the magnitude of perturbation (effect size). Therefore, a greater effort must be devoted to estimate the effect size of a particular phenomenon rather than a desired variability.     

3D gravity modelling for Anyongbok Seamount in the East Sea

A seamount chain with an approximately WNW trend is observed in the northeastern Ulleung Basin. It has been argued that these seamounts, including two islands called Ulleung and Dok islands, were formed by a hotspot process or by ridge related volcanism. Many geological and geophysical studies have been done for all the seamounts and islands in the chain except Anyongbok Seamount, which is close to the proposed spreading ridge. We first report morphological characteristics, sediment distribution patterns, and the crustal thickness of Anyongbok Seamount using multibeam bathymetry data, seismic reflection profiles, and 3D gravity modeling. The morphology of Anyongbok Seamount shows a cone shaped feature and is characterized by the development of many flank cones and flank rift zones. The estimated surface volume is about 60 km³, and implies that the seamount is smaller than the other seamounts in the chain. No sediments have been observed on the seamount except the lower slope, which is covered by more than 1,000 m of strata. The crustal structure obtained from a 3D gravity modeling (GFR = 3.11, SD 3.82 = mGal) suggests that the seamount was formed around the boundary of the Ulleung Plateau and the Ulleung Basin, and the estimated crustal thickness is about 20 km, which is a little thicker than other nearby seamounts distributed along the northeastern boundary of the Ulleung Basin. This significant crustal thickness also implies that Anyongbok Seamount might not be related to ridge volcanism.     

Design of a 3D Chirp Sub-bottom Imaging System

Chirp sub-bottom profilers are marine acoustic devices that use a known and repeatable source signature (1–24 kHz) to produce decimetre vertical resolution cross-sections of the sub-seabed. Here the design and development of the first true 3D Chirp system is described. When developing the design, critical factors that had to be considered included spatial aliasing, and precise positioning of sources and receivers. Full 3D numerical modelling of the combined source and receiver directivity was completed to determine optimal source and receiver geometries. The design incorporates four source transducers (1.5–13 kHz) that can be arranged into different configurations, including Maltese Cross, a square and two separated pairs. The receive array comprises 240 hydrophones in 60 groups whose group-centres are separated by 25 cm in both horizontal directions, with each hydrophone group containing four individual elements and a pre-amplifier. After careful consideration, it was concluded that the only way to determine with sufficient accuracy the source–receiver geometry, was to fix the sources and receivers within a rigid array. Positional information for the array is given by a Real Time Kinematic GPS and attitude system incorporating four antennas to give position, heading, pitch and roll. It is shown that this system offers vertical positioning accuracy with a root-mean-square (rms) error less than 2.6 cm, while the horizontal positioning rms error was less than 2.0 cm. The system is configured so that the Chirp source signature can be chosen by software aboard the acquisition vessel. The complete system is described and initial navigational and seismic data results are presented. These data demonstrate that the approach of using fixed source-receiver geometry combined with RTK navigation can provide complete 3D imaging of the sub-surface.     

Variability of organic δC and C/N in the Mersey Estuary, U.K. and its implications for sea-level reconstruction studies

Microfossil analysis (e.g. diatoms, foraminifera and pollen) represents the cornerstone of Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) reconstruction because their distribution in the contemporary inter-tidal zone is principally controlled by ground elevation within the tidal frame. A combination of poor microfossil preservation and a limited range in the sediment record may severely restrict the accuracy of resulting RSL reconstructions. Organic δ¹³C and C/N analysis of inter-tidal sediments have shown some potential as coastal palaeoenvironmental proxies. Here we assess their viability for reconstructing RSL change by examining patterns of organic δ¹³C and C/N values in a modern estuarine environment. δ¹³C and C/N analysis of bulk organic inter-tidal sediments and vegetation, as well as suspended and bedload organic sediments of the Mersey Estuary, U.K., demonstrate that the two main sources of organic carbon to surface saltmarsh sediments (terrestrial vegetation and tidal-derived particulate organic matter) have distinctive δ¹³C and C/N signatures. The resulting relationship between ground elevation within the tidal frame and surface sediment δ¹³C and C/N is unaffected by decompositional changes. The potential of this technique for RSL reconstruction is demonstrated by the analysis of part of an early Holocene sediment core from the Mersey Estuary. Organic δ¹³C and C/N analysis is less time consuming than microfossil analysis and is likely to provide continuous records of RSL change.     

Comparison of two three-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling systems for coastal tidal motion

A comparison of two three-dimensional numerical modeling systems for tidal elevations and velocities in the coastal waters is presented. The two modeling systems are: (1) the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) and (2) the MIKE 3 flow model. The model performance results for Singapore's coastal waters show that the predicted tidal elevations from the two hydrodynamic modeling systems are almost identical and are in very good agreement with field measurement data. The simulated tidal current velocities match well with field measurement data at the selected stations, but it seems that the POM provides the slightly better simulation, compared to the MIKE 3 flow model. The depth profiles of the velocities obtained from the two modeling systems may be greatly different at some time, due to the vertical diffusion coefficient calculated from different turbulent sub-models in the two modeling systems. The POM generally predicts larger peak tidal velocities. The maximum speed differences for the model results from the two modeling systems occur in the top and differ from time to time and from location to location, reaching up to 20%.     

不同生长期坛紫菜多糖中组分含量的变化

于１９９０－１９９１年，运用＾１３Ｃ－ＮＭＲ和化学分析方法研究南方产和移植北方养殖的不同生长发育阶段坛紫菜多糖的组分变化，结果表明，随着藻体生长发育，坛紫菜琼胶中３，６－内醚－Ｌ－半乳糖和６－ＯＣＨ３－Ｄ－半乳糖的含量逐渐增加，而硫酸基的含量呈现先增加后减少的规律；北移坛紫菜琼胶中３，６－内醚－Ｌ－半乳糖的含量高于南方坛紫菜，而硫酸基和６－ＯＣＨ３－Ｄ－半乳糖的含量低于南方坛紫菜。     

Geochemical cycling in the Hooghly estuary, India

U–Th decay series isotopes, δ¹⁸O and Si measurements in the river estuarine waters and sediments of the polluted Hooghly estuary as well as the surface waters of the Bay of Bengal, its high salinity end member, are reported. Dissolved Si indicates that there are probably two mixing regimes, dissolved U behaviour is nonconservative and δ¹⁸O behaves conservatively in the overall estuarine region. Isotopes of reactive elements, viz. ²³⁴Th and ²¹⁰Po, are removed from the estuarine waters in <2 days and <1 month, respectively, which is due to high suspended matter (30–301 mg l⁻¹). ²²⁸Ra and ²²⁶Ra are profusely released into the estuarine waters in the low to mid-salinity regions.As expected, the opposite trend is observed in the case of estuarine sediments and suspended matter. Reactive isotopes of Th, ²¹⁰Pb and ²¹⁰Po are enriched, whereas Ra isotopes are depleted with respect to their parent nuclides in the estuarine sediments and suspended matter. ²³²Th/Al ratio appears well suited to study the distribution and mixing of the bed load sediments of the Ganga–Brahmaputra (G–B) and the Hooghly rivers with those from other rivers on the Bay of Bengal floor.     

合浦珠母贝二倍体、三倍体和非整倍体群体的基因杂合度与生长比较

采用淀粉凝胶电泳方法对合浦珠母贝Pinctadamartensi(D.)雌性三倍体与雄性二倍体交配,细胞松弛素B抑制其受精卵第一极体释放产生的二倍体、三倍体及非整倍体3个群体进行了同工酶研究。二倍体、三倍体及非整倍体群体在6个多态位点的平均基因杂合度分别为0.255±0.087,0.286±0.097,0.275±0.089,三倍体的杂合度高出二倍体约12%,表明多倍体诱导能增加诱导群体的杂合度。但在单个位点上,三倍体的杂合度不一定高于二倍体;在各自群体内,平均杂合位点数与生长间无明显的相关性,单个位点上的杂合子也未完全表现出其生长大于纯合子,且差异不明显(p>0.05)。因此,合浦珠母贝三倍体的快速生长难以完全用杂合度增高假说解释,只能说明诱导处理能使三倍体的杂合度增高,而能量再分配和"巨型性"可能对其快速生长起着不可忽视的作用。非整倍体群体的杂合度高于二倍体群体,但其生长却小于二倍体,其原因可能是染色体的增减对机体的生长有一定的影响。     

海岸线长度与分维在不同比例尺地图上的变化研究

结合国内外海岸线分形研究进展 ,以江苏省海岸线为例 ,系统地探讨了不同比例尺地图上海岸线长度与分维的变化及其规律。指出海岸线长度与地图比例尺之间存在有 lg L =algk b的基本关系 ;其次 ,对于同一条海岸线来说 ,使用量规法和网格法计算所得分维结果是不同的 ,使用量规法的计算结果大于使用网格法的计算结果 ;再者 ,在不同比例尺地图上 ,同一海岸线的分维是不同的 ,随着地图比例尺的逐渐变小 ,海岸线分维相应地逐渐变小 ,且在不同比例尺间使用量规法计算所得海岸线分维结果的差值大于使用网格法计算所得海岸线分维结果的差值