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181.
The growing availability of digital topographic data and the increased reliability of precipitation forecasts invite modelling efforts to predict the timing and location of shallow landslides in hilly and mountainous areas in order to reduce risk to an ever‐expanding human population. Here, we exploit a rare data set to develop and test such a model. In a 1·7 km2 catchment a near‐annual aerial photographic coverage records just three single storm events over a 45 year period that produced multiple landslides. Such data enable us to test model performance by running the entire rainfall time series and determine whether just those three storms are correctly detected. To do this, we link a dynamic and spatially distributed shallow subsurface runoff model (similar to TOPMODEL) to an in?nite slope model to predict the spatial distribution of shallow landsliding. The spatial distribution of soil depth, a strong control on local landsliding, is predicted from a process‐based model. Because of its common availability, daily rainfall data were used to drive the model. Topographic data were derived from digitized 1 : 24 000 US Geological Survey contour maps. Analysis of the landslides shows that 97 occurred in 1955, 37 in 1982 and ?ve in 1998, although the heaviest rainfall was in 1982. Furthermore, intensity–duration analysis of available daily and hourly rainfall from the closest raingauges does not discriminate those three storms from others that did not generate failures. We explore the question of whether a mechanistic modelling approach is better able to identify landslide‐producing storms. Landslide and soil production parameters were ?xed from studies elsewhere. Four hydrologic parameters characterizing the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil and underlying bedrock and its decline with depth were ?rst calibrated on the 1955 landslide record. Success was characterized as the most number of actual landslides predicted with the least amount of total area predicted to be unstable. Because landslide area was consistently overpredicted, a threshold catchment area of predicted slope instability was used to de?ne whether a rainstorm was a signi?cant landslide producer. Many combinations of the four hydrological parameters performed equally well for the 1955 event, but only one combination successfully identi?ed the 1982 storm as the only landslide‐producing storm during the period 1980–86. Application of this parameter combination to the entire 45 year record successfully identi?ed the three events, but also predicted that two other landslide‐producing events should have occurred. This performance is signi?cantly better than the empirical intensity–duration threshold approach, but requires considerable calibration effort. Overprediction of instability, both for storms that produced landslides and for non‐producing storms, appears to arise from at least four causes: (1) coarse rainfall data time scale and inability to document short rainfall bursts and predict pressure wave response; (2) absence of local rainfall data; (3) legacy effect of previous landslides; and (4) inaccurate topographic and soil property data. Greater resolution of spatial and rainfall data, as well as topographic data, coupled with systematic documentation of landslides to create time series to test models, should lead to signi?cant improvements in shallow landslides forecasting. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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介绍了用于海量数字高程模型数据的管理、应用分析以及可视化的系统GeoDEMDB,采用部件对象模型技术,实现了数据管理、空间分析和大范围三维场景漫游的集成,并提供了灵活的选择性。 相似文献
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JiangWenping XiDaping 《中国地质大学学报(英文版)》2003,14(4):374-380
With the development of computer graphics, the three-dimensional (3D) visualization brings new technological revolution to the traditional cartography. Therefore, the topographic 3D-map emerges to adapt to this technological revolution, and the applications of topographic 3D-map are spread rapidly to other relevant fields due to its incomparable advantage. The researches on digital map and the construction of map database offer strong technical support and abundant data source for this new technology, so the research and development of topographic 3D-map will receive greater concern. The basic data of the topographic 3D-map are rooted mainly in digital map and its basic model is derived from digital elevation model (DEM) and 3D-models of other DEM-based geographic features. In view of the potential enormous data and the complexity of geographic features, the dynamic representation of geographic information becomes the focus of the research of topographic 3D-map and also the prerequisite condition of 3D query and analysis. In addition to the equipment of hardware that are restraining, to a certain extent, the 3D representation, the data organization structure of geographic information will be the core problem of research on 3D-map. Level of detail (LOD). space partitioning, dynamic object loading (DOL) and object culling are core technologies of the dynamic 3D representation. The objectselection, attribute-query and model-editing are important functions and interaction tools for users with 3D-maps provided by topographic 3D-map system, all of which are based on the data structure of the 3D-model. This paper discusses the basic theories, concepts and cardinal principles of topographic 3I)-map,expounds the basic way to organize the scene hierarchy of topographic 3D-map based on the node mechanism and studies the dynamic representation technologies of topographic 3D-map based on LOD, space partitioning, DOL and object culling. Moreover. such interactive operation functions are explored, in this paper, as spatial query, scene editing and management of topographic 3D-map. Finally, this paper describes briefly the applications of topographic 3D-map in its related fields. 相似文献
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D. S. Cohan G. A. Sturrock A. P. Biazar P. J. Fraser 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2003,44(2):131-150
Atmospheric mixing ratios of methyl iodide (CH3I) and other methyl halides have been measured at Cape Grim, Tasmania (41°S, 145°E), since early 1998 as part of the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE). This paper analyses about 1700 ambient air CH3I measurements from the 14-month period (March 1998–April 1999). Mixing ratios peaked during the summer, despite faster photolytic loss, suggesting local oceanic emissions were about 2.2–3.6 times stronger in summer than in winter. Back trajectories show that CH3I levels are strongly dependent on air mass origin, with highest mixing ratios in air from the Tasman Sea/Bass Strait region and lowest levels in air originating from the Southern Ocean at higher latitudes. CH3I mixing ratios were not well correlated with other methyl halides in unpolluted marine air. The large variations with season and air mass origin suggest that high frequency, continuous data from key locations will make a significant contribution to the understanding of sources and sinks of this important short-lived atmospheric species. 相似文献