我国港口城市的功能模式研究

基于港口城市功能的评价指标体系,采用主成分分析法,提取反映港口城市功能特征的4个主成分因子;运用分层聚类法对我国21个港口城市的主成分得分进行聚类分析;结合港口功能、城市功能、港口与城市关系等指标对我国港口城市功能模式进行总结,并分析不同功能模式港口城市的发展特征和存在问题;基于港口城市功能模式差异性分析,提出我国港口城市发展的几点建议。     

京、津、冀地区的碳排放趋势估计

通过多种方法相结合,估计了京、津、冀地区2009-2050年的能源碳排放量、水泥工艺碳排放量和森林碳汇量,计算了区域总的碳排放量和净碳排放量。结果表明:1)京、津、冀地区碳排放量都呈现先升后降的Kuznets趋势,森林年碳汇量对碳排放降低影响不明显;2)在自由排放条件下,北京、天津均在2030年前达到碳排放高峰期,河北省及整个京津冀地区的碳排放高峰将延迟到2039年;3)在2050年前,北京、天津年碳汇量将有所降低,河北年碳汇量则上升。     

Three-dimensional geometrical ray theory and modelling of transmitted seismic energy of data from the Nevada Test Site

This paper presents a geometrically based algorithm for computing synthetic seismograms for energy transmitted through a 3-D velocity distribution. 3-D ray tracing is performed to compute the traveltimes and geometrical spreading (amplitude). The formulations of both kinematic and dynamic ray-tracing systems are presented. The two-point ray-tracing problem is solved by systematically updating the initial conditions and adjusting the ray direction until the ray intersects the specified endpoint. The amount of adjustment required depends on the derivatives of the position with respect to the given starting angles between consecutive rays. The algorithm uses derivatives to define the steepest-descent direction and to update the initial directions. The convergence rate depends on the complexity of the model.
Test seismograms compare favourably with those from a 2-D asymptotic ray theory algorithm and a 3-D Gaussian-beam algorithm. The algorithm is flexible in modelling arbitrary source and recorder geometries for various smoothly varying 3-D velocity distributions. The algorithm is further tested by simulating surface-to-tunnel vibroseis field data. Shear waves as well as compressional waves may be approximately included. Application of the algorithm to a data set from the Rainier Mesa of the Nevada Test Site produced a good fit to the transmitted (first arrival) traveltimes and amplitudes, with approximately 15 per cent variation in the local 3-D velocity.     

Range expansion and potential distribution of the invasive grass Bromus tectorum in southern South America on the base of herbarium records

We reconstructed the invasion history and modelled the potential distribution of the invasive grass Bromus tectorum in southern South America. On the base of herbarium data, we described two aspects of B. tectorum's range expansion over time: area of occupancy and extent of occurrence. A maximum entropy model was used to identify both climatic variables associated with B. tectorum's current distribution and potentially invasible areas. The area-of-occupancy curve showed a steady increase of the occupied area since the first collection in 1937, with no obvious asymptote. However, the extent-of-occurrence curve indicated that range expansion was not homogeneous through time, but faster between 1965 and 1980. Most invasible areas were arid and semiarid with markedly Mediterranean precipitation regime. Within this susceptible region, there were large areas containing only a few known records of B. tectorum. Our results indicate that B. tectorum has successfully expanded over much of southern South America. In addition, there seems to be room for further local invasion (i.e. an increase of its area of occupancy) over large susceptible areas within the invaded region. Overall, our results confirm the suitability of southern South America's arid environments to B. tectorum invasion, and stress the importance of long-distance dispersal in accelerating its expansion across the region.     

胶济铁路沿线城市群的空间模式及发展研究

分析了胶济铁路沿线城市群形成发展的原因，指出了城市群的现状特征，并对沿线城市群的发展提出了几点建议。     

转型期中国城镇居民住房类型分化及其影响因素——基于CGSS (2005) 的分析

转型时期我国城镇居民主要通过市场竞争机制和科层分配体制来获取个人住房,获取稀缺的住房资源的途径和机会的差异在一定程度上反映了住房不平等和社会分化。处于体制转型时期的中国城镇,制度、市场和家庭因素等多重因素相互交织,共同影响中国城镇居民住房选择。以覆盖全国88 个城镇的《中国综合社会调查(CGSS)》(2005 年城镇部分) 调查资料为基础,本文分析了转型背景下中国城镇居民住房类型分化及其影响因素,研究发现：改革 开放30 多年以来,中国城镇的住房自有率大幅度提高,其主要原因从1998 年前的公房房改政策向1998 年后住房市场化政策转变。家庭生命周期、家庭收入、户籍、单位性质、职业等变 量显著影响住房选择,体现市场与制度对住房资源分配的双重影响。经济发达地区由于住房资源紧缺、住房价格高,居民住房承受能力差异较大,工作单位性质、户籍和家庭生命周期变量对住房选择的影响更显著。随着住房市场化进一步发展和住房制度改革的逐步深入,地方政府应逐步放宽社会住房的享受标准,尤其是户籍限制条件;开发商应更关注社会经济快 速转型背景下的家庭结构变化及其对居住偏好的影响。     

潮河流域降水-径流关系变化及驱动因子识别

基于1973-2010年长系列日降水、径流数据,利用降水径流双累积曲线、M-K统计检验和降水集中度等方法,结合HIMS模型模拟结果,分析了潮河流域降水-径流关系的变化及其原因。得到的主要结论如下：（1）近38年来,潮河流域降水变化较小,但径流下降趋势显著,降水-径流关系发生了两次突变,即在1973-1983年、1984-1998年和1999-2010年三个阶段降水-径流关系存在明显差异;（2）大雨日降水总和（P_≥20）与径流深关系较为密切,其变化是导致降水-径流关系在1983年发生突变的主要驱动因子;（3）HIMS模型模拟结果显示,1999-2010年潮河流域下垫面条件较前两阶段变化明显,人类活动引起的减水效应由第二阶段的14.93%增加至第三阶段的25.78%,人类活动是导致降水-径流关系在1998年发生突变的主要驱动因子。