上海市精细时空尺度人口分布估计与特征分析

城市人口实时分布与动态变化特征是城市规划与综合治理的重要依据。受数据获取手段的局限性,准确地获取城市人口的实时分布状况一直是技术瓶颈,而移动通讯技术的迅速普及为这一问题的解决提供了技术途径。本文基于移动通讯信令的连续轨迹数据,实现了城市精细尺度人口分布时空估算的方法流程,并以上海市为研究区,对城市人口分布特征及时空移动过程进行了量化分析。研究表明：① 在数据方面,基于移动通讯信令数据估算城市人口分布的方式样本覆盖广、时空精度高、时效性较强且支持时空尺度灵活多变的应用研究需求,能够定量地描述城市人口分布时空动态特征且能推算城市真实人口规模;② 在人口分布时空特征方面,上海市在全市尺度上,各时段人口空间分布较为稳定且差异较小,而在中心城区日间人口较夜间人口呈现更为显著的空间集聚特征;③ 在人口移动时空特征方面,城市功能承载区与其它区域之间人口移动很少,早晚高峰期各城市功能承载区之间人口移动均体现为中心城区与其它新城之间的移动,且2个方向移动人数较为平衡;各城市功能承载区内均有超过半数的人口全天仅在其所在城区内部活动。本文的研究成果可为上海城市规划、应急管理、交通出行等提供更精准的科学依据。     

Mountain Glacier Flow Velocities Analyzed from Satellite Optical Images

Mountain glaciers are sensitive to environment. It is important to acquire ice flow velocities over time for glacier research and hazard forecast. For this paper, cross-correlating of optical images is used to monitor ice flow velocities, and an improvement, which is called ＂moving grid,＂ is made to this method. For this research, two remote-sensing images in a certain glacier area, dur-ing different times are selected. The first image is divided into grids, and we calculated the correlation coefficient of each window in the grid with the window on the second image. The window with the highest correlation coefficient is considered the counter-part one on the first image. The displacement of the two corresponding windows is the movement of the glacier, and it is used to calculate glacier surface velocity. Compared to the traditional way of dividing an image with ascertain grid, this method uses small steps to move the grid from one location to another adjacent location until the whole glacier area is covered in the image, thus in-creasing corresponding point density. We selected a glacier in the Tianshan Mountains for this experiment and used two re-mote-sensing images with a 10-year interval to determine this method.     

辽河三角洲地貌演化(英文)

This paper mainly analyzes the geomorphological changes of the tidal deposition in the Liaohe Estuary based on the multi-year bathymetric charts in 1990, 1996, 2002 and 2005 and Landsat TM images in 1987, 1994, 2002 and 2005. Evolution of the tidal depositional system during the past 20 years in the Liaohe River was studied on the basis of 50 boreholes drilling and 30 km shallow stratigraphic exploration from 2002 to 2005. The main tidal depositional body of the modern Liaohe River delta is located in the Shuangtaizihe Estuary. The stratum within the depth of 10 m includes tidal bank facies, tidal channel facies and neritic facies with paleo-delta facies underlying them. The sediments of tidal bank facies are mainly composed of sand and silt with siltation load and suspended load of about 50% respectively in proportion. The sediment of tidal channel facies and neritic facies is composed of clayey silt and silty clay which belongs to suspended load. The study area was a small bay between the old Daliaohe River, the old Dalinghe River and the Raoyanghe River complex delta since the Holocene to 1896. Many tidal banks formed and expanded rapidly after the Shuangtaizihe River was excavated by labor in 1896. The runoff and sediment discharge have decreased since the construction of brake at the Shuangtaizihe River in 1958.The Shuangtaizihe Estuary is in the state of deposition as a whole whose tidal bank is increasing and expanding southward, westward and northward. The maximum expansion speed is 87 to 683 m/a and the mean depositional rate is 0.189 m/a. Erosion occurred in some part of tidal bank with average erosional rate of 0.122 m/a. The tidal channel was filled up with sediment at a migration speed of 48–200 m/a. Geomorphologic changes have happened under the combined influences of runoff, ocean dynamics and human activities. The main source of sediment changes from river sediment to sediment driven by tidal current and longshore current.     

Research and Practice on the Crustal Deformation Mobile Monitoring Network Layout in the Hydropower Station Reservoir Area

According to the construction project of the crustal deformation mobile monitoring network in the cascade hydropower stations built in the lower reaches of Jinsha River,this paper analyzes the design ideas and layout principles of crustal deformation mobile monitoring used in the monitoring of reservoir induced earthquakes. This paper introduces three types of monitoring networks used in the Xiluodu reservoir and Xiangjiaba reservoir, as well as the work already undertaken,in order to provide a kind of reference for the related engineering construction and comprehensive monitoring of reservoir induced earthquakes.     

不对称双连拱海底隧道施工引起的地层变形分析

在目前众多的预测隧道开挖引起的地层变形的方法中,经验公式法最为简便,也是目前应用最为广泛的方法,为此介绍了多种预测隧道开挖引起的地层沉降和水平位移的经验公式。并以青岛胶州湾海底隧道不对称双连拱断面为工程背景,由位于主隧道与匝道交叉口段的典型断面ZK2+800.78的几何参数和地质资料构建三维数值计算模型,采用岩土体工程通用有限差分软件FLAC3D进行动态施工三维数值模拟。通过对FLAC3D模拟和各经验公式计算的地层沉降和水平位移的对比分析,评价了FLAC3D软件和各经验公式在不对称双连拱隧道断面地层变形预测中的适用性。结果表明,当地层埋深较浅时,不同埋深地层的地层沉降和水平位移可近似用各经验公式来预测;但随着地层埋深的增大,各经验公式预测的偏差不断增大;经验公式只能对单一地层、单一隧道的地层变形进行估算,存在明显的局限性,而在预测复杂地质条件下不对称双连拱隧道断面开挖引起的地层变形时,FLAC3D较各经验公式有明显的优势     

几种岩石强度准则的对比分析

采用常规三轴试验数据,以最小平均拟合差为评价指标定量地对比分析5种强度准则描述岩石非线性强度特征的适用性。结果表明：直线型Mohr-Coulomb准则不能描述岩石强度的非线性特征;抛物线型Mohr-Coulomb虽能描述岩石强度的非线性特征,但拟合误差较大,计算所得强度参数与事实不符,不宜使用;对于中低围压（ ）下岩石强度的非线性特征,单参数Bieniawski准则拟合精度与Hoek-Brown准则相当或稍好,拟合精度接近于指数强度准则,均优于双参数Bieniawski准则;在高围压下岩石强度非线性特征较为显著,应用单参数Bieniawski 准则或Hoek-Brown准则描述误差较大,三参数Bieniawski准则和指数强度准则拟合误差较小,可用于评价深部或特深部高应力状态下岩石的强度特征。     

挡墙水平变位诱发地表沉降的简化解析解

推导了平移模式下的地表沉降理论显式解,在此基础上提出了任意挡墙变位诱发墙后地表沉降的简化计算方法。分别与平移、绕墙趾及绕墙顶等3种变位模式下的弹性有限元数值解进行对比分析,对简化解析方法进行了验证。最后将这一简化解析方法应用于工程案例预测,与软土地基现场实测结果进行对比,发现理论预测的地表沉降曲线与实测值相吻合,且较准确地预测了最大沉降发生的位置,表明了该简化解析方法的实用性。     

基于H-P滤波法、ARIMA和VAR模型的库区滑坡位移综合预测

受库水位涨落及降雨等影响,库区滑坡位移表现出明显的周期性。基于位移时间序列分析,将滑坡监测位移分解为趋势项与周期项之和。趋势项反映滑坡变形的长期趋势,其主要受滑坡本身地质结构等因素影响。周期项反映滑坡变形的波动性,其主要受外部因素影响。以三峡库区巫山塔坪滑坡为例,考虑长江水位与降雨量影响,采用H-P滤波法从滑坡位移中分解出趋势项及周期项,利用差分自回归滑动平均模型（ARIMA）对趋势项进行平稳处理并计算趋势项预测值,利用向量自回归模型（VAR）计算周期项预测值。趋势项预测值与周期项预测值之和为滑坡位移预测值。与实际监测值及多种方法分析比较,表明综合预测所得结果能较好反映滑坡变形的趋势性和波动性,位移预测效果较好。     

移动荷载下三维半空间动力安定性下限分析

针对交通移动荷载,基于第一动力安定性理论预测了弹塑性半无限空间动力安定性下限值。通过建立无限元边界的三维动力有限元模型,研究了移动荷载作用下弹塑性半无限空间的动应力分布,构造了稳态动应力下的残余应力场,基于残余应力场的构造提出了动力安定性下限值的预测方法,分析了交通动应力下的安定性下限值以及车辆移动速度对安定性的影响,同时分析了均布荷载和Hertz荷载分布对动力安定性下限值的影响。当荷载移动速度低于Rayleigh波速时,安定性极限值随着速度的增加而增加,而当速度超过Rayleigh波速时,随着速度的增加而减小。研究还发现,当荷载和总重相等时采用圆形均布荷载和Hertz荷载的安定性极限值较为相似。     

三次样条函数在水文泥沙颗粒分析中的应用

在水文泥沙颗粒分析中,为整理出成果表,首先要根据分析数据手工绘制颗粒级配曲线,再从曲线上查得沙样小于相应粒径级别的沙重百分数,然后再根据所查得的数据进行加权平均计算等一系列工序,最后才得到成果表,其过程繁琐、效率低下、误差大,容易出错.本文阐述了在计算机上如何利用三次样条函数用数学的方法绘制颗分曲线,并计算出小于各粒径级别的沙重百分数的方法.