A Dipole Pattern of Summer Precipitation over Mid-high Latitude Asia and Related Snow Cover Anomalies in the Preceding Spring

A dipole pattern of summer precipitation over the mid-high latitudes of Asia, which is characterized by opposing summer precipitation variations between the Mongolian and Northeast China （MNC） region and the West Siberian Plain （WSP）, is found to be clear and stable on both interdecadal and interannual scales during 1981- 2011. Spring snow cover anomalies over a small region within the WSP and the Heilongjiang River （HR） region are closely related to the variation of this dipole mode during the subsequent summer, and they can therefore be considered as forecasting factors. Our statistical results imply a potential process explaining the relationship between the spring snow anomalies and the summer rainfall dipole. Corresponding to the snow anomalies, Rossby waves propagate along a path from the WSP region, via the Mongolian Plateau, to the Stanovoy Range during summer. At the same time, Rossby-wave energy divergences and convergences along this path maintain and reinforce an anomalous cyclone and anticyclone pairing over the Asian continent, which is significantly linked to opposite summer precipitation anomalies between the MNC and WSP regions. Numerical experiments are need- ed to further confirm the above conjecture and demonstrate the detailed physical mechanisms linking the spring snow cover anomalies and summer precipitation dipole.     

An Optical Disdrometer for Measuring Present Weather Parameters

A new present weather identifier（PWI） based on occlusion and scattering techniques is presented in the study. The present weather parameters are detectable by the meteorological optical range（MOR） approximately up to 50 km and by droplets with diameters ranging from 0.125 mm to 22 mm with velocities up to 16 m s-1. The MOR error is less than 8% for the MOR within 10 km and less than 15% for farther distances. Moreover, the size errors derived from various positions of the light sheet by the particles were checked within ± 0.1 mm ± 5%. The comparison shows that the MOR, in a sudden shower event, is surprisingly consistent with those of the sentry visibility sensors（SVS） with a correlation coefficient up to 98%. For the rain amounts derived from the size and velocity of the droplets, the daily sums by the PWI agree within 10% of those by the Total Rain Weighing Sensor（TRwS205） and the rain gauge. Combined with other sensors such as temperature, humidity, and wind, the PWI can serve as a present weather sensor to distinguish several weather types such as fog, haze, mist, rain, hail, and drizzle.     

一次陕西关中强暴雨环境条件及中尺度系统分析

综合利用T213再分析资料和高时空分辨率观测资料包括地面区域逐时加密观测资料,对2007年8月8—9日陕西关中特大暴雨过程的环境条件和中尺度系统进行了分析。天气学分析表明:500 h Pa西太平洋副热带高压和青藏高原高压形成的高压坝在陕西中部断裂形成东北—西南向切变线、250 h Pa西风急流入口区右侧发散场和700 h Pa东西向切变线相互配合是特大暴雨形成的有利环境条件;低层风向快速变化使关中暴雨区低空水汽经历了减小—突然增加—快速减小的过程,关中周围水汽通过偏东气流输送至暴雨区为暴雨的发生提供了水汽和位势不稳定条件,而水汽的快速变化又形成关中暴雨的突发性和历时短而强的特征;高空反气旋涡度的发展形成强烈的"抽吸作用"、双圈垂直次级环流和强垂直上升运动及其两侧的弱下沉运动形成的不对称结构是暴雨形成的动力机制。强降水的中尺度特征分析显示:强暴雨是由一个中α尺度对流系统(MαCS)的发生发展产生的,MαCS又是由2个中β尺度对流系统(MβCS)合并发展而成,其内部对流单体的发展合并和独立加强形成岐山、礼泉和高陵3个大暴雨中心,这些对流单体的发展是由地面中尺度辐合系统产生的,强降水的强弱与地面中尺度辐合系统的强弱有很好的对应关系,地面中尺度辐合系统的形成和加强可能是强降水的触发机制和增幅原因之一。     

The Combined Effect of Initial Error and Model Error on ENSO Prediction Uncertainty Generated by the Zebiak-Cane Model

Initial errors and model errors are the source of prediction errors. In this study, the authors compute the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP）-type initial errors and nonlinear forcing singular vector （NFSV）- type tendency errors of the Zebiak-Cane model with respect to El Nifio events and analyze their combined effect on the prediction errors for E1 Nino events. The CNOP- type initial error （NFSV-type tendency error） represents the initial errors （model errors） that have the largest effect on prediction uncertainties for E1 Nifio events under the perfect model （perfect initial conditions） scenario. How- ever, when the CNOP-type initial errors and the NFSV- type tendency errors are simultaneously considered in the model, the prediction errors caused by them are not am- plified as the authors expected. Specifically, the predic- tion errors caused by the combined mode of CNOP-type initial errors and NFSV-type tendency errors are a little larger than those caused by the NFSV-type tendency er- rors. This fact emphasizes a need to investigate the opti- mal combined mode of initial errors and tendency errors that cause the largest prediction error for E1 Nifio events.     

斜压罗斯贝变形半径优化的误差相关尺度及其对最优插值效果的改进

利用最优插值方法进行三维温盐场重构时,如何正确估算背景场误差协方差至关重要。针对背景场误差协方差主要取决于误差相关尺度的问题,本文提出了用中国东部海域及其附近海域的最新的高分辨率气候态数据进行斜压罗斯贝变形半径优化其误差相关尺度计算的研究方案和技术途径;对比分析了均一化相关尺度方案和法国ISAS系统尺度方案,讨论了变形半径对最优插值的影响。结果表明:均一化相关尺度方案的均方根误差小于ISAS方案,但温度场过于平滑,难以刻画一些重要的物理现象;相比而言,本文提出的基于变形半径的相关尺度方案在取2倍变形半径时,不仅均方根误差在各水平层较小,且温度场能够更好地刻画四国海盆海域涡旋及黑潮影响的温度场三维结构。由于实际海洋中各层物理过程的尺度存在差异,实际应用时各层的最优尺度设置也应有所不同。     

南大西洋沉积物中多环芳香化合物的组成特征研究

10 samples of sediments obtained from the South Mid-Atlantic Ridge were measured for the abundances and distributions of polycyclic aromatic compounds(PAHs). The total concentrations of PAHs(∑PAHs) ranged from 2.768 to 9.826 μg/g dry sediment. The ∑PAHs was higher in sample 22V-TVG10 and sample 26V-TVG05 which were close to hydrothermal fields, with the lowest value in sample 22V-TVG14 which was farthest from hydrothermal fields, suggesting a probable hydrothermal origin of ∑PAHs of samples. Approximately nine kinds of PAHs were identified, and low molecular mass tricyclic and tetracyclic aromatic compounds were predominant in the samples. The concentrations of fluoranthene which were typical as hydrothermal alteration compounds were the highest among PAHs with dry weight between 0.913–3.157 μg/g. The phenanthrene homologue was most abundant in the samples, and the ratios between parent phenanthrene and methylphenanthrene which probably reflected the degree of hydrothermal alteration ranged from 0.097 to 1.602. The sample 22V-TVG10 possessing a maximum ratio value showed the intense influence of the hydrothermal alteration on this sample, which might further imply that PAHs in sediments were mainly derived from the hydrothermal alteration.     

中朝-扬子板块碰撞结合带东部边界及海域延伸

总结了中朝-扬子板块碰撞结合带的边界划分的各类观点,分析了存在争议的原因以及研究的不足之处。通过对苏鲁造山带及黄海海区的重磁资料、周缘断裂特征、典型地震剖面等最新研究成果的收集整理,研究认为华北扬子板块的碰撞结合带应为苏鲁超高压变质带-千里岩隆起,结合带在陆地的北边界可能为五莲-青岛-牟平断裂;南边界为连云港-黄梅断裂;千里岩南缘断裂在印支期是一条千里岩超高压变质带折返的边界断裂,白垩纪以来反转为一条控制南黄海北部坳陷的大型边界断裂,并指出加强黄海海域重磁震资料的精细研究及海陆结合带的构造关系研究是进一步研究重点。     

Dispersal of the Zhujiang River (Pearl River) derived sediment in the Holocene

High-resolution Chirp profiling and coring reveals an elongated(ca. 400 km) Holocene Zhujiang River(Pearl River)-derived mud area(maximum thickness 20 m) extending from the Zhujiang River Delta, southwestward off the Guangdong coast, to the Leizhou Peninsula. Two depo-centers, one proximal and one distal, are identified. On the continental shelf off the west Guangdong Province, the mud is deposited in water depth shallower than 50 m; while to the southeast of the Zhujiang River Estuary, the mud area can extend to the-120 m isobath. A combined analysis with the stratigraphic sequences of other muddy deposits in the Western Pacific marginal seas(mainly Changjiang(Yangtze) and Huanghe(Yellow) Rivers derived) indicates that the initiation of the Zhujiang River muddy deposit can be further divided into two stages: Stage 1 is before the mid-Holocene sea-level highstand(ca. 7.0 cal. ka BP), the proximal mud was mostly deposited after 9.0 cal. ka BP, when the sea-level rose slowly after the Meltwater Pulse-1C; Stage 2, after the mid-Holocene sealevel highstand, clinoform developed on the continental shelf off the west Guangdong Province, extending ca. 400 km from the Zhujiang River Estuary. The proximal clinoform thins offshore, from ca. 10 m thickness around 5–10 m water depth to less than 1–2 m around 20–30 m water depth. In addition, we also find a developed distal clinoform in the east of the Leizhou Peninsula.     

福建西部山区短时暴雨雷达回波特征及中小尺度系统分析

利用常规天气资料、探空、地面降水资料以及建阳、龙岩两部新一代天气雷达资料对2005-2009年福建西部山区短时暴雨的雷达回波特征及对应的中小尺度系统进行分析,分析表明:短时暴雨的雷达回波按降水类型可分为大陆强对流型降水和热带海洋型强降水,并统计了大陆强对流型降水和热带海洋型降水低层反射率因子与雨强对应关系;按降水影响时间可以分为以局地发展为主的停滞型回波和不断影响某一地区的移动型列车效应回波;利用雷达回波演变及基本径向速度资料,结合天气系统,提取三类产生短时暴雨对应的中小尺度系统:与低空切变(或低压槽)、西南急流配合的中小尺度切变线或辐合线,以切变南压为主的中小尺度切变线或辐合线和以局地对流发展为主的逆风区或中气旋。     

从Nio-3指数看MJO不确定性对ENSO可预报性的影响

通过在Zebiak Cane数值模式中引入参数化MJO随机外强迫,着重从Nio 3指数的演变发展探讨了MJO不确定性对ENSO可预报性的影响。结果表明,对Zebiak Cane模式而言,MJO不确定性对由条件非线性最优扰动(CNOP)导致的ENSO事件最大预报误差影响较小;与初始误差相比,由MJO不确定性产生的模式误差在ENSO预报不确定性的产生中具有较小作用,对ENSO可预报性的影响不显著。该结果强调了初始误差在ENSO预报不确定性中的主要作用,从而为ENSO预测的资料同化提供了理论基础。