Sensitivity of the Simulated Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation to Cumulus Parameterizations

The sensitivity of the simulated tropical intraseasonal oscillation or MJO （Madden and Julian oscillation） to different cumulus parameterizations is studied by using an atmospheric general circulation model （GCM）--SAMIL （Spectral Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG）. Results show that performance of the model in simulating the MJO alters widely when using two different cumulus parameterization schemes-the moist convective adjustment scheme （MCA） and the Zhang-McFarlane （ZM） scheme. MJO simulated by the MCA scheme was found to be more realistic than that simulated by the ZM scheme. MJO produced by the ZM scheme is too weak and shows little propagation characteristics. Weak moisture convergence at low levels simulated by the ZM scheme is not enough to maintain the structure and the eastward propagation of the oscillation. These two cumulus schemes produced different vertical structures of the heating profile. The heating profile produced by the ZM scheme is nearly uniform with height and the heating is too weak compared to that produced by the MCA, which maybe contributes greatly to the failure of simulating a reasonable MJO. Comparing the simulated MJO by these two schemes indicate that the MJO simulated by the GCM is highly sensitive to cumulus parameterizations implanted in. The diabatic heating profile plays an important role in the performance of the GCM. Three sensitivity experiments with different heating profiles are designed in which modified heating profiles peak respectively in the upper troposphere （UH）, middle troposphere （MH）, and lower troposphere （LH）. Both the LH run and the MH run produce eastward propagating signals on the intraseasonal timescale, while it is interesting that the intraseasonal timescale signals produced by the UH run propagate westward. It indicates that a realistic intraseasonal oscillation is more prone to be excited when the maximum heating concentrates in the middle-low levels, especially in the middle levels, while westward propagating disturbances     

Aquatic ecological risk assessment of OCPs in Huaihe River, Jiangsu section

The Huaihe River Basin, located between the Yellow River and the Yangtze River, is one of the most populated areas in the eastern part of China. The Huaihe River is probably the most heavily polluted one among the three largest rivers in China. The Jiangsu section is the downstream reaches of the Huaihe River, where organochlorine pesticides （OCPs） may come from local discharge due to flourishing industry and agriculture, and also from inflows from upstream. OCPs are usually hazardous organic pollutants, and may endanger the aquatic ecosystem of the Huaihe River, Jiangsu section. Surface water of the Huaihe River, Jiangsu section in both high-flow period and low-flow period was sampled and OCPs were determined using GC-ECD. 15 OCPs were detected, including 2,4＇-DDT, 4,4＇-DDT, 4,4＇-DDD, α-HCH, β-HCH, γ-HCH, aldrin, endrin, dieldrin, methoxychlor, heptachlor, hexachlorobenzene（HCB）, α-endosulfan, α-Endosulfan and heptachlorepoxide. The span of total OCPs concentration is between 26.27-124.39 ng/L. Among the 15 OCPs detected, aquatic ecological risk assessment was performed for 12 ones except for α-endosulfan, α-endosulfan and heptachlorepoxide due to lack of the relevant toxicity data of the three compounds. The acute toxicities of 12 OCPs to multi aquatic species were collected from AQUIRE database and other sources. Environmental Concentration Distribution （ECD） and Species Sensitivity Distribution （SSD） were achieved after Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The risk quotient distributions were acquired using Monte Carlo simulation. The aquatic ecological risks caused by single OCPs were analyzed. It is shown that endrin and 2,4＇-DDT have the highest risk while HCB and HCHs have the lowest risk. Then the joint ecological risk caused by all 12 OCPs was calculated based on the concept of equivalent concentration and it proves to be significantly higher than risk caused by any single OCP. Furthermore, the probability of aquatic ecological risk was calculated according to different ecological risk criteria （ERC）. The comparative analysis shows that ERC is very important to the result of ecological risk assessment.     

DRAINMOD-S模型参数的全局灵敏度分析

为有效进行DRAINMOD-S模型参数的优选,更好地理解参数变化对模拟结果的影响,开展了模型参数灵敏度分析。以南通市九龙垦区暗管排水脱盐试验为例,采用Morris全局定性分析方法检测了DRAINMOD-S模型模拟土壤剖面含盐量时侧向饱和导水率K_sat、水动力弥散系数D、地表最大蓄水深度S_m、相对不透水层深度I_m、排水系数D_r及地下水初始埋深W 6个参数的灵敏度。结果表明:K_sat对模拟结果影响最为显著,D、S_m和D_r次之,而W与I_m影响最小;各个参数间的非线性作用存在差异,以K_sat最为显著。为保证模型模拟质量,对敏感性参数应提高现场测试精度,在模型运行时,对灵敏度大的参数应进行重点调整,同时也不可忽视非线性作用较强的参数,从而有效地指导模型的参数率定,提高模型的适用性。     

黄河源区径流对气候变化的响应及敏感性分析(英文)

Response of the runoff in the headwater region of the Yellow River to climate change and its sensibility are analyzed based on the measured data at the four hydrological stations and ten weather stations during the period 1959–2008. The result indicates that change of temperature in the region has an obvious corresponding relationship with global warming and the changes of annual average temperature in each subregion in the region have been presenting a fluctuant and rising state in the past 50 years. However the change of precipitation is more intricate than the change of temperature in the region because of the influences of the different geographical positions and environments in various areas, and the change of annual precipitation in the main runoff-producing area has been presenting a fluctuant and decreasing state in the past 50 years. And there is a remarkable nonlinear correlativity between runoff and precipitation and temperature in the region. The runoff in the region has been decreasing continuously since 1990 because the precipitation in the main runoff-producing area obviously decreases and the annual average temperature continuously rises. As a whole, the runoff in each subregion of the headwater region of the Yellow River is quite sensitive to precipitation change, while the runoff in the subregion above Jimai is more sensitive to temperature change than that in the others in the region, correspondingly.     

底板突水预测模型的影响因素分析

通过复合分析方法建立煤矿底板突水模型,对突水模型的不确定性进行分析,衡量复合分析中各因素对底板突水危险性分区结果的影响,并通过灵敏度分析对引起分区面积变化的因素进行排序,实验得出等效厚度的计算是影响结果的主要因素,可以为矿山水害防治提供科学的决策依据。     

海底管道泄漏参数灵敏度分析

文章利用FLUENT软件中的欧拉模型,对海底管道油气两相泄漏进行仿真,分别模拟没有气体扩散及有气体扩散的情况,考虑了气泡尺寸、海流、泄漏率及油的种类等因素对油气运动形态的影响,采用灵敏度理论,计算出油在水下漂移距离及到达水面的时间的灵敏度。计算结果表明,泄漏率对油到达水面的时间的灵敏性最高,海流对油在水下漂移距离的灵敏性最高。该灵敏度分析结果可为管道泄漏应急决策提供理论依据。     

浅层有限频率面波成像中的3D灵敏度核分析

本文利用面波散射的模式耦合方法,基于波恩近似和远场假设,研究了有限频率面波三维灵敏度核,针对面波在工程应用中常遇到的水平分层的背景介质模型,计算了介质扰动引起的面波相位和幅度扰动的三维灵敏度核,分析了模式耦合对三维灵敏度核的影响.结果表明,仅考虑模式自身耦合的JWKB近似,介质密度和波速扰动引起的三维灵敏度核可以蜕化为面波相速度扰动的二维灵敏度核,有限频率面波成像和传统基于射线的方法类似,可以分两步进行,只需在纯路径反演过程中将基于大圆路径假设下的一维灵敏度核用二维灵敏度核取代.如果交叉模式耦合的影响不能忽略,在反演时必须引入三维面波灵敏度核,直接对介质参数进行反演.     

抚顺浑河断裂形变边角网灵敏度计算

对中精度一定情况下,微型边角网的短边测角误差相对大些,其成果应作不等精度混合平差。以实际观测资料计算了抚顺浑河断裂变形边角网的灵敏度,其中红砖厂网Y方向的灵敏度极差,主要原因是图形太差,提高的措施有:对全部边角进行观测的成果作不等精度混合平差;舍弃短边的方向观测;提高测角精度。红砖厂网不同观测方案灵敏度的计算表明,去掉短边方向的方案比观测全部边角方案Y方向灵敏度提高了约2.0倍。     

数字式主动声呐研制的初步探索

首先介绍数字式主动声呐的优点及实现上的特殊困难．采用时间相关积累信号处理方法，可以克服海洋背景噪声和船只自噪声的干扰，并具有强烈的抗起伏性能．在垂直向下探测或短距离、高频探测等特殊条件下，依混响的衰减规律，由微机组成精确的灵敏度时间控制网络，可以抑制混响的影响，并大大地简化了目标识别的难题．回声测深仪、垂直探鱼仪及本文介绍的浅海航行暗礁障碍探测仪的研制和海上实验，说明了这个结论．