渤、黄海生态环境模拟的参数敏感度空间差异分析

随着海洋生态系统模型的发展,生态变量增多,众多生物过程参数量值的确定成为制约生态环境模拟的瓶颈问题,生态系统结构区域性要求模型中的生态参数具有区域差异。为探究不同海区的关键参数及参数敏感度的空间差异,本研究在渤、黄海建立了ROMS-CoSiNE物理–生物耦合的高分辨率生态系统模型,并对13种生态参数的敏感度空间分布进行分析。结果表明:南黄海中部与渤海及近岸海域的敏感度差异较大。渤海敏感度最大的参数为决定光合速率的浮游植物P-I曲线初始斜率,其次为浮游动物捕食半饱和常数和浮游动物最大捕食率。而南黄海中部敏感度最大的参数为浮游动物最大捕食率,其次为浮游植物死亡率和浮游植物P-I曲线初始斜率。结合敏感度分布及浮游植物生物量收支得出,渤海水体透明度较南黄海偏低、浮游植物生长光限制较强,是引起浮游植物P-I曲线初始斜率敏感度在渤海高于黄海的主要原因。浮游动物最大捕食率及浮游植物死亡率的敏感度空间差异,受渤、黄海浮游植物生物量差异的影响,与生态系统中的高度非线性特征有关。     

岬湾海岸中人工岛建设对岬角涡旋及海湾地形冲淤的影响——以海南岛铺前湾为例

岬湾海岸中一般在岬角的右侧与左侧（面向大海方向）分别发育顺时针与逆时针涡流。这些涡流的存在对泥沙输运、海底地形演变、污染物扩散等都具有重要影响。而在海洋中岛屿的存在将产生局部的岛后尾流。如岛屿与岬角距离较近,岛后尾流可能与岬角涡旋相互作用,反之则相互影响较小。本文以海南岛铺前湾为例,研究在岬湾海岸中湾口处的人工岛建设对湾内涡旋的影响,并进一步分析人工岛建设对整个海湾海底冲淤变化的效应。本项研究主要采用COAWST模型进行研究。结果表明,大潮期在海湾内发育大范围的顺时针涡旋,小潮期涡旋发育不明显,以东向余流为主。人工岛建设并未影响整个海湾的涡旋结构,但人工岛分隔了湾内顺时针涡旋,且在周围产生局部的逆时针与顺时针涡旋。海底冲淤变化的基本格局为湾内以淤积为主,人工岛建设加强了这种趋势,但在人工岛与岸线之间的狭窄通道内,海底出现冲刷。本项研究对岬湾海岸的科学开发管理具有一定意义。     

浙江省三疣梭子蟹产量波动及潜在影响因素分析

依据2000—2015年浙江省三疣梭子蟹(Portunustrituberculatus)渔获量的数据,以及影响渔获量的因素(管理类因素、环境类因素和营养关系类因素等共11个因子),使用广义加性模型(GAM)对各类因素对三疣梭子蟹渔获量的影响进行了分析。结果显示,赤潮面积、捕捞努力量和放流数量对三疣梭子蟹渔获量影响显著(P0.01)。3个因子的累积解释比率达98.3%,其中,赤潮的解释比率最大,达到47.2%,捕捞努力量的解释比率为37.8%,放流数量的解释比率为13.3%。三疣梭子蟹渔获量随着赤潮面积增加有所减少,随着捕捞努力量的加大有迅速增加的趋势,与放流尾数呈现正相关趋势。三疣梭子蟹渔获量的波动受诸多因素的影响。今后需开展更深入的研究,找到可能影响三疣梭子蟹渔获量的其他关键因素。     

海洋环境因子对澳洲鲐亲体补充量关系的影响——基于贝叶斯模型平均法的研究

澳洲鲐（Scomber australasicus）是西北太平洋重要的中上层经济鱼类,生命周期相对较短,资源量受补充量影响明显,了解澳洲鲐太平洋群系补充量状况对掌握其资源量及确保其可持续利用具有重要的意义。本文利用产卵场1（30°~32°N,130°~132°E）海表面温度（sea surface temperature,SST1）、产卵场2（34°~35°N,138°~141°E）海表面温度（SST2）、索饵场（35°~45°N,140°~160°E）海表面温度（SST3）、潮位差（tidal range,TR）、太平洋年代际涛动（Pacific decadal oscillation,PDO）和亲体量（spawning stock biomass,SSB）6个影响因子任意组合与补充量构建多个模型,运用贝叶斯模型平均法（Bayesian model averaging,BMA）分析各个环境因子对资源补充量的解释能力,并预测其补充量的变化。结果表明,SSB对补充量具有最长期且稳定的解释能力,其次是SST3,PDO、TR、SST2、SST1也对补充量模型具有一定的解释能力。SST3是环境因子中影响最大的因子,可能是由于补充群体在索饵场内生活时间较长,索饵场温度对仔鱼或鱼卵的生长存活有较大的影响。研究认为,基于BMA的组合预报综合考虑了各个模型的优势,优于单一模型,可用于澳洲鲐资源补充量的预测。     

西南印度洋中脊表层沉积物非碳酸盐组分的粒度特征及其地质意义

The carbonate-free fraction of 20 surface sediments collected from the ultraslow-spreading Southwest Indian Ridge(SWIR) was studied by grain size analysis and mineralogical analysis with X-ray powder diffraction(XRD),stereo microscopy and scanning electron microscopy(SEM). The characteristics of the carbonate-free fraction of the sediments were obtained, and related influential factors were discussed. The results show that the mean grain size of this fraction is in 1.96Φ–8.19Φ, with poorly sorting and unimodal, bimodal or irregular bimodal distribution patterns. Four grain size end members of the fraction are derived with the End Member Model method. The finest end member EM1 shows a significant contribution of terrigenous materials of the aeolian input and sediment carried by the bottom current. End member EM2 with medium size mainly reflects sediment of a siliceous bioclast origin. EM3 and EM4 are interpreted as representing the coarser volcanic materials related to bedrock weathering or volcanic activities. Multi-provenance is the dominant factor controlling the grain size pattern of the carbonate-free fraction of the sediments in that area. In addition, sediment transport processes such as the bottom current and wind are the minor factors that influence the grain size distribution of the carbonate-free fraction sediments.     

海马齿浮床对富营养化海湾营养盐削减的模型评价：以东山湾八尺门养殖海域为例

Many coastal seas are severely eutrophic and required to reduce nutrient concentrations to meet a certain water quality standard. We proposed a method for nutrient removal by planting Sesuvium portulacastrum at the water surface using the floating beds in the aquaculture area of the Dongshan Bay as an example, which is an important net-cage culture base in China and where dissolved inorganic nitrogen(DIN) and dissolved inorganic phosphate(DIP) reach 0.75 mg/L and 0.097 mg/L, respectively far exceeding China's Grade IV water quality standards.Numerical simulations were taken using the ecological model, field observations and field plantation experimental results to assess the environmental restoration effects of planting S. portulacastrum at some certain spatial scales. Our field experiments suggested that the herbs can absorb 377 g/m~2 nitrogen and 22.9 g/m~2 phosphorus in eight months with an inserting density of ～60 shoot/m~2. The numerical experiments show that the greater the plantation area is, the more nutrient removal. Plantation in ～12% of the study area could lower nutrients to the required Grade II standards, i.e., 0.2 mg/LDIN≤0.3 mg/L and 0.015 mg/LDIP≤0.03 mg/L.Here the phytoremediation method and results provide helpful references for environmental restoration in other eutrophic seas.     

渤海夏季环流的高分辨率海浪-潮汐-环流耦合模式研究

The Bohai Sea is a shallow semi-enclosed inner sea with an average depth of 18 m and is located at the west of the northern Yellow Sea. The climatological circulation pattern in summer of the Bohai Sea is studied by using a wave-tide-circulation coupled model. The simulated temperature and the circulation agree with the observation well. The result shows that the circulation pattern of the Bohai Sea is jointly influenced by the tidal residual current, wind and baroclinic current. There exists an obvious density current along the temperature front from the west part of the Liaodong Bay to the offshore area of the Huanghe Estuary. In the Liaodong Bay there exists a clockwise gyre in the area north to the 40°N. While in the area south to the 40°N the circulation shows a two-gyre structure, the flow from the offshore area of the Huanghe Estuary to the Liaodong Bay splits into two branches in the area between 39°N and 40°N. The west branch turns into north-west and forms an anti-clockwise gyre with the south-westward density current off the west of the Liaodong Bay. The east branch turns to the east and forms a clockwise gyre with the flow along the east coast of the Liaodong Bay. The forming mechanism of the circulation is also discussed in this paper.     

黄渤海带鱼(Trichiurus lepturus)渔业生物学参考点估计研究

It is important to find a reliable method to estimate maximum sustainable yield(MSY) or total allowable catch(TAC) for fishery management, especially when the data availability is limited which is a case in China. A recently developed method(CMSY) is a data-poor method, which requires only catch data, resilience and exploitation history at the first and final years of the catch data. CMSY was used in this study to estimate the biological reference points for Largehead hairtail(Trichiurus lepturus, Temminck and Schlegel) in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, based on the fishery data from China Fishery Statistical Year Books during 1986 to 2012. Additionally,Bayesian state-space Schaefer surplus production model(BSM) and the classical surplus production models(Schaefer and Fox) performed by software CEDA and ASPIC, were also projected in this study to compare with the performance of CMSY. The estimated MSYs from all models are about 19.7×104–27.0×104 t, while CMSY and BSM yielded more reasonable population parameter estimates(the intrinsic population growth rate and the carrying capacity). The biological reference points of B/BMSY smaller than 1.0, while F/FMSY higher than 1.0 revealed an over-exploitation of the fishery, indicating that more conservative management strategies are required for Largehead hairtail fishery.     

基于云模型的海岸脆弱性评估 ——以厦门岛为例

脆弱性评估很大程度上存在着模糊性和随机性,为有效解决评估过程中定性概念与评估指标按隶属函数定量描述这一不确定转换问题,本文基于云理论本文选取海岸地貌、海岸高程、海岸坡度、海岸缓冲能力、有效波高、道路价值和建筑价值为指标,构建了厦门岛海岸脆弱性评估指标体系,运用云模型评估手段定量测度了厦门岛海岸脆弱性空间分异特征。评估结果与客观情况比较吻合,检验了指标体系的合理性和评估模型的适用性。本文提出了海岸脆弱性综合评估模型,实用有效,可以推广到与厦门岛类似的区域,为海岸管理及规划提供科学指导。     

基于EEMD和ARIMA的海温预测模型研究

类型丰富、时空分辨率高的海洋探测数据,为信号分解和机器学习算法的应用提供了可能。本文针对如何建立有效的海温预测模型这一问题,使用高时空分辨率的海表温度(SST)融合产品,引入信号处理领域的集合经验模态分解(EEMD)和机器学习领域的自回归积分滑动平均模型(ARIMA)。首先利用最适于分解自然信号的EEMD方法,将海温数据分解成多个确定频率的序列;再利用ARIMA分别对各个频率的序列进行预测,最后将各个序列的预测结果进行组合。该方法在丰富数据的支撑下,比以往直接使用海温数据所建立的预测模型精度更高,为更好地进行海温预测提供了新方法。