A View of Earth System Model Development

This paper gives a definition of earth system model and shows three development phases of it, including physical climate system model, earth climate system model, and earth system model, based on an inves- tigation of climate system models in the world. It provides an expatiation on the strategic significance of future development of earth system model, an introduction of some representative scientific research plans on development of earth system model home and abroad, and a review of its status and trends based on the models of the fourth assessment report （AR4） ofthe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC）. Some suggestions on future development of earth system model in China are given, which are expected to be helpful to advance the development.     

Earth System Model FGOALS-s2: Coupling a dynamic global vegetation and terrestrial carbon model with the physical climate system model

Earth System Models （ESMs） are fundamental tools for understanding climate-carbon feedback. An ESM version of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model （FGOALS） was recently developed within the IPCC AR5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） modeling framework, and we describe the development of this model through the coupling of a dynamic global vegetation and terrestrial carbon model with FGOALS-s2. The performance of the coupled model is evaluated as follows. The simulated global total terrestrial gross primary production （GPP） is 124.4 PgC yr-I and net pri- mary production （NPP） is 50.9 PgC yr-1. The entire terrestrial carbon pools contain about 2009.9 PgC, comprising 628.2 PgC and 1381.6 PgC in vegetation and soil pools, respectively. Spatially, in the tropics, the seasonal cycle of NPP and net ecosystem production （NEP） exhibits a dipole mode across the equator due to migration of the monsoon rainbelt, while the seasonal cycle is not so significant in Leaf Area Index （LAI）. In the subtropics, especially in the East Asian monsoon region, the seasonal cycle is obvious due to changes in temperature and precipitation from boreal winter to summer. Vegetation productivity in the northern mid-high latitudes is too low, possibly due to low soil moisture there. On the interannual timescale, the terrestrial ecosystem shows a strong response to ENSO. The model- simulated Nifio3.4 index and total terrestrial NEP are both characterized by a broad spectral peak in the range of 2-7 years. Further analysis indicates their correlation coefficient reaches -0.7 when NEP lags the Nifio3.4 index for about 1-2 months.     

An Overview of BCC Climate System Model Development and Application for Climate Change Studies

This paper reviews recent progress in the development of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC-CSM) and its four component models(atmosphere,land surface,ocean,and sea ice).Two recent versions are described:BCC-CSM1.1 with coarse resolution(approximately 2.8125°×2.8125°) and BCC-CSM1.1(m) with moderate resolution(approximately 1.125°×1.125°).Both versions are fully coupled climate-carbon cycle models that simulate the global terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycles and include dynamic vegetation.Both models well simulate the concentration and temporal evolution of atmospheric CO_2 during the 20th century with anthropogenic CO2 emissions prescribed.Simulations using these two versions of the BCC-CSM model have been contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase five(CMIP5) in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report(AR5).These simulations are available for use by both national and international communities for investigating global climate change and for future climate projections.Simulations of the 20th century climate using BCC-CSMl.l and BCC-CSMl.l(m) are presented and validated,with particular focus on the spatial pattern and seasonal evolution of precipitation and surface air temperature on global and continental scales.Simulations of climate during the last millennium and projections of climate change during the next century are also presented and discussed.Both BCC-CSMl.l and BCC-CSMl.l(m) perform well when compared with other CMIP5 models.Preliminary analyses indicate that the higher resolution in BCC-CSM1.1(m) improves the simulation of mean climate relative to BCC-CSMl.l,particularly on regional scales.     

我们为什么要善待海洋?

全球海洋总面积达36105.9万平方千米,地球表面约有71%的部分被蔚蓝色的海水所覆盖。海洋作为全球气候系统中的一个重要环节,通过与大气的能量物质交换和水循环等,在调节和稳定气候上发挥着决定性作用,更为人类提供了极其丰富的各类资源。     

地球系统动力学模式和模拟研究的进展

概述地球系统动力学模式的由来及国内外目前的研究和模拟进展。地球系统动力学模式是描述全球气候以及生态和环境系统的整体耦合演变的数学表达。利用他作大规模数值模拟,以便认识和预测全球和区域的气候和生态环境变化,有效应对防灾减灾和规划可持续发展等。目前国内外尚未完全研制出可供实用的地球系统模式,还须二三年时间。     

“海洋性大陆”观测研究计划介绍及中国参与进展

正1"海洋性大陆"观测研究计划介绍海洋性大陆(Maritime Continent,以下简称MC)是指由中南半岛、菲律宾群岛、印度尼西亚群岛、新几内亚岛等众多岛屿和中国南海及一系列浅海组成的区域(图1),该地区地处太平洋、印度洋、亚洲、大洋洲的连接地带,是中国战略构想"海上丝绸之路"的必经之地。MC地区特殊的地理位置、复杂的海陆分布和地形状况,使其成为连接太平洋和印度洋、地球大气低纬度和中高纬度地区、以及对流     

Preliminary study on decadal variations of El Nino-associated adjustment in the tropical Pacific thermocline

Statistical analysis about ENSO index represented by SSTA in Nino3 with several datasets shows obviously decadal changes in the dominant period and amplitude of ENSO. Correlation analysis about the composite E1 Nino events before and after 1976 exhibits obviously decadal changes in the propagation and intensity of the oceanic anomaly related to the variation of SSTA in Nino3. In the composite E1 Nino before 1976, the coherence is relatively weak between the oceanic anomaly in the tropical Pacific and the SSTA in the Nino3 region; the area with significant correlation coefficient is relatively small; the oceanic anomaly related to Nino3 SSTA propagates faster. The above changes correspond well to the decadal changes of ENSO cycles. Some preliminary explanations are given based on the analysis of the decadal changes in the thermocline. The tropical thermocline shoals after 1976 except in the equatorial far East Pacific and the inclination of the tropical thermocline deep west and shallow east patterns weakens. Much of the oceanic anomaly from the relative higher latitude contributes to the slow propagation of the oceanic anomaly in the North Pacific. The air-sea coupling in the tropical Pacific intensifies after 1976 corresponding to decadai change of the ENSO amplitude. Decadai adjustment of the thermocline may have influenced the propagation and intensity of the oceanic anomaly related to the ENSO and intensity of air-sea interaction in the tropical Pacific, and changed the dominant period of ENSO and its amplitude.     

地球系统模式发展展望

在调研国际国内气候系统模式的基础上,给出了地球系统模式的定义和它的3个发展阶段：物理气候系统模式、地球气候系统模式和地球系统模式,阐述了未来的地球系统模式发展的战略意义,介绍了国际国内围绕地球系统模式的发展所提出的科学研究计划,并基于政府间气候变化委员会第四次评估报告的参评模式,回顾了国内外地球系统模式发展现状与动态,展望了未来的可能发展方向,希望能对国内的地球气候系统模式发展有所帮助。     

自然资源危机和自然资源管理的挑战

当今世界人口的不断增加导致土地资源匮乏和土地利用的巨大变化 ,过度的人类活动造成砍伐森林、过度放牧、土地和水资源竭尽以及其它多种环境问题。解决好这些问题 ,确保子孙后代的生存和利益 ,就需要对这些自然资源进行更好的管理。1　什么是自然资源 (NR)能够为人类利用的任何自然生成的资源 ,如空气、气候、水、土壤、森林、草原、野生动物、陆地、矿产资源等。 NR包括所有那些可被人类在特定时间利用以及具有未来利用前景的自然界的组成部分 ,其中可再生 NR如果没有被过度利用而退化 ,它是可以被潜在地无限制地进行开发的。NR的作用…