10年时间尺度气候预测

<正>10年时间尺度的气候预测,由于能够提供给政策制定者和有关部门与单位近期的气候变化预测,作为经济规划和社会生活安排等的参考,因此越来越受到重视。10年气候预测是气候科学中一个新的领域,一般预测方法采用:一是统计预测方法,根据前期气候变化特征,利用统计关系,计算预测未来10年的气候变化;二是动力模式预测方法,利用全球或区域气候模式,在一定初边条件和外强迫作用下,预测未来10年的气候变化;三是动力加统计     

西藏南部吉隆盆地中新世-早更新世孢粉组合带及其地质意义

吉隆盆地为高喜马拉雅中新世晚期约10 Ma时期形成的一个南北向断陷盆地, 其东侧为同沉积正断层, 沃马剖面位于盆地沉降中心的东南部.在该剖面下部新发现一套中新世巨厚砾岩层(旦增竹康组).通过锆石和磷灰石裂变径迹年代学研究得出吉隆盆地控盆断裂早期活动时间为13.4±1.9 Ma, 源区12~11 Ma发生构造热事件, 据此推算出吉隆盆地初始裂陷后开始沉积的底界年龄约为10 Ma.综合前人在吉隆盆地得出的7.20~1.67 Ma古地磁测年值, 可得出吉隆盆地旦增竹康组年龄为10.0~7.4 Ma, 沃马组年龄为7.40~1.67 Ma.根据孢粉组合带和孢粉组合反映的植物类型和古环境变化, 沿剖面自下而上划分为3个孢粉组合带和9个孢粉组合及其对应的植被类型.吉隆地区古气候变化可划分为3个阶段: (1)组合带Ⅰ和孢粉组合1~2, 为温暖偏干环境的常绿与落叶针阔叶混交林, 地层对比时代为晚中新世(10.0~7.0 Ma); (2)组合带Ⅱ和孢粉组合3~7, 为寒冷干旱环境的落叶针叶林, 期间存在一次暖湿气候的波动, 地层对比时代为晚中新世晚期-早上新世(7.0~3.3 Ma); (3)组合带Ⅲ和孢粉组合8~9, 为温凉偏干的气候下生长暗针叶林和落叶阔叶林构成的针阔叶混交林, 地层对比时代为晚上新世(3.30~1.67 Ma).      

新30年四川冰雹特征分析

本文根据1971-2000年(简称新30年)四川省资料，分析了全省冰雹的时空和季节分布、年际变化、冰雹强度及持续、降落时间、致灾情况等各种特点，对最近30年四川省冰雹的天气气候状况做了较为详细的描述。     

近22年来南沙海区的气温变化

运用南沙永署礁气象观测站1989—2010年的气温资料,对近22年来南沙海区的气温变化进行了分析,结果表明:近22年来南沙海区气温分两个阶段呈阶梯上升趋势,增长率为0.336℃/10年,升温幅度白天大于夜间。四季中秋季升温幅度最大,冬季升温幅度最小。2010年是近22年来南沙海区最暖的一年。     

1998～2010年夏季台湾海峡西部沿岸海水遥感透明度的年际变化

通过比较分析不同的透明度卫星遥感算法,提出将一个基于固有光学特性的、适用于沿岸海域的算法应用于台湾海峡西岸海域,反演获得1998～2010年SeaWiFS遥感透明度时间序列.根据这组时间序列数据,发现该海域夏季透明度低值(<4 m)年份出现在1998、2001和2006年,高值(最高值达到10 m)年份出现在1999、2004和2010年.控制这一年际变动的因素,以目前有限的数据来看,主要是径流与上升流共同引发的水华强度的变化.此外,该海域透明度在研究时段内没有呈现一定的变化趋势,甚至在2006年之后,似乎在持续加深,说明海峡西岸活跃的经济活动,在1998～2010的13 a间,暂时没有对沿岸水质产生显著的破坏性的影响.     

基于不同模型的相对海平面变化分析

采用多种方法和3种模型分析了东方、海口、北海、闸坡、香港、汕尾、厦门、坎门、吕四、那霸、名濑、连云港、石臼所、大连共14个验潮站22年逐时海平面序列的相对海平面变化,主要包括趋势与周期项提取和未来月均海平面预测两大方面,比较了各种方法分析所得结果的相似性与差异性。结果表明:各验潮站的海平面均在逐渐上升,上升速率在1~3 mm/a之间,平均值为2.3 mm/a;各站的周期项也不一样,但基本都包含周年和半年项。发现一些方法组合时可能会出现异常情况,例如模型趋势项选择不同的形式,可能会导致所求速率出现正负截然相反的情形,不同的周期寻找方法所确定的周期也存在一定差异。各种方法的预测效果相差不大,预测残差基本都在±2 dm以内,基于奇异谱分析的均生函数的长期预测效果要明显优于带周期项的灰色模型和传统模型,但短期预测效果相差不大。     

海杂波微弱目标分形检测

The target on the sea surface is complex and difficult to detect due to the interference of backscattered returns from the sea surface illuminated by the radar pulse. Detrended fluctuation analysis （DFA） has been used successfully to extract the time-domain Hurst exponent of sea-clutter series. Since the frequency of the sea clutter mainly concentrates around Doppler center so that we consider to extract frequency-do- main fractal characterization and then detect a weak target within sea clutter by using the difference of frequency-domain fractal characterization. The generalized detrended fluctuation analysis （GDFA） is more flexible than traditional DFA owing to its smoothing action for the clutters. In this paper, we apply the GDFA to evaluate the generalized Hurst exponent of sea-clutter series in the frequency domain. The difference of generalized Hurst exponents between different sea-clutter range bins would be used to determine whether the target exists. Moreover, some simulations with the real IPIX radar data have also been demonstrated in order to suooort this conclusion.     

渤海莱州湾地区晚更新世以来有孔虫特征反映的古环境变化

Controlled by climate changes, there were three large-scale transgressions and regressions around the Bohai Sea during the late Quaternary, which were accepted by most geologists. However, a big controversy still exists about the time when the transgressions occurred separately. In order to find out the process of the paleoenvironmental changes around the Bohai Sea in the late Quaternary, the foraminifera assemblages from a new borehole Lz908 in the southern coast of the Laizhou Bay were studied, and then the transgressive strata were indentified. Combined with accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon 14C（AMS14C） and optically stimulated luminescence（OSL） ages, the occurrence time of these transgressions were re-determined. The result showed that three major large-scale transgressions occurred separately at the beginning of marine isotopic stage 7（MIS7）, the last interglacial period（MIS5） and the Holocene. In addition, a small-scale transgression occurred in the mid-MIS6, and the corresponding transgressive stratum was deposited. The transgressive deposition of MIS3 was also discovered in this study. However, the characteristics of the foraminifera indicated the environment during this period was colder than that in the MIS5. By comparison with the global sea-level changes, the paleoenvironmental changes around the Bohai Sea in the late Quaternary can be consistent with the global climate changes.     

全球有效波高和风速的时空变化及相关关系研究

The climatology of significant wave height（SWH） and sea surface wind speed are matters of concern in the fields of both meteorology and oceanography because they are very important parameters for planning offshore structures and ship routings. The TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter, which collected data for about 13 years from September 1992 to October 2005, has measured SWHs and surface wind speeds over most of the world＇s oceans. In this paper, a study of the global spatiotemporal distributions and variations of SWH and sea surface wind speed was conducted using the TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data set. The range and characteristics of the variations were analyzed quantitatively for the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans. Areas of rough waves and strong sea surface winds were localized precisely, and the correlation between SWH and sea surface wind speed analyzed.     

基于卫星高度计的北极海冰厚度变化研究

A modified algorithm taking into account the first year(FY) and multiyear(MY) ice densities is used to derive a sea ice thickness from freeboard measurements acquired by satellite altimetry ICESat(2003–2008). Estimates agree with various independent in situ measurements within 0.21 m. Both the fall and winter campaigns see a dramatic extent retreat of thicker MY ice that survives at least one summer melting season. There were strong seasonal and interannual variabilities with regard to the mean thickness. Seasonal increases of 0.53 m for FY the ice and 0.29 m for the MY ice between the autumn and the winter ICESat campaigns, roughly 4–5 month separation, were found. Interannually, the significant MY ice thickness declines over the consecutive four ICESat winter campaigns(2005–2008) leads to a pronounced thickness drop of 0.8 m in MY sea ice zones. No clear trend was identified from the averaged thickness of thinner, FY ice that emerges in autumn and winter and melts in summer. Uncertainty estimates for our calculated thickness, caused by the standard deviations of multiple input parameters including freeboard, ice density, snow density, snow depth, show large errors more than 0.5 m in thicker MY ice zones and relatively small standard deviations under 0.5 m elsewhere. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis is implemented to determine the separate impact on the thickness estimate in the dependence of an individual input variable as mentioned above. The results show systematic bias of the estimated ice thickness appears to be mainly caused by the variations of freeboard as well as the ice density whereas the snow density and depth brings about relatively insignificant errors.